nj2va

4 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Advisory level precip in the mountains perhaps? 

What will likely prevent advisory will be the relatively warm ground temps unless it can come down hot and heavy.  I am excited to see snow though...P&C has 1” tomorrow night.

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I would think that the water around DC matters in the early fall too.  I don't know what the temp of that water is, but I imagine it's still pretty warm.

It's about 58 degrees per this site:

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/dc/nwis/uv?cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00095=on&cb_00095=on&cb_00400=on&format=gif_default&site_no=01646500&period=&begin_date=2018-10-12&end_date=2018-10-19

39 low. No frost. 

First freeze at the house in McHenry.  Got down to 29.6.  

This past weekend in McHenry was definitely low in color...I'm expecting much better color this weekend but I do think this season overall will be muted with the rain.

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/images/stories/reports/southeast_us/10152018_lc.gif

Quite the nice day outside today.  Though this is the time of year where people act like a high of 60 is 30 degrees with 25 mph winds from the NW.  Several people on the metro had winter coats and scarves on.  ::blankstare::

6 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm guessing based on previous years now is about the time we start getting the uh oh that's not looking so good for winter analysis 

Hour 650000 of the 00z Euro showed mid 60s on January 15.

I think it may be time to re-up my weather model subscription.  

Low of 35 this morning. And recorded my first Trace of snow. Had a brief mix of wet snow ❄️ 

41 here in McHenry. Forecast low is 36. Hoping to see some wet snowflakes tomorrow morning. 

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Got down to 53. Currently 54. Took off today...been sitting out on deck enjoying the cool breezes ( and 44 Dew point ) and drinking a cold beer .

What a glorious way to spend a day like today. 

Wind really starting to gust here now. Strongest of the night. 30-35. 

PIT mentioning chance of non accumulating wet snow for the ridges in Garrett and WV Saturday morning. Winter!!

24 minutes ago, jacindc said:

The serious stuff is never going to make it past the Beltway from the southeast, is it. I can see lightning, but the oranges on the radar keep fading right before they get to me.

It’s preparing us for winter. 

Michael is wreaking havoc trying to get to HH downtown. Downpour = Uber hell

34 minutes ago, frd said:

 YES PLEASE  !!!!!!!

I love it , the new seasonal UKMET , supports the Euro , yet it is colder and the above normal precip along the  East Coast is there .

Kattie Bar the Door, ( Herb Clarke ) anyone remember him , well, then if you do you are old like me..... , Ha ha  ( J/K ) 

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

 

 

Excellent, I'm getting excited for this winter.  

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Dang it, now I have to go renew my WxBell subscription. Or weathermodels. Haven’t checked what Maue has done to the site in a few months. Anyone have an opinion between the two?

 

Curious as well

I'd love to make a run at freezing on Friday night in McHenry.  I finally installed my Davis two weekends ago at the house and adding wireless capability to it this weekend to access it remotely.  Wooooo.

Forecast low is 36 on Friday night right now.

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Cold and dry will not work for wintry appeal. We had that last December and January and people were getting reaped by the day. It’s all about putting up numbers. I don’t do the truly long range stuff and I tend to wait until around thanksgiving to really care, but this is about as good a look with few real red flags as I’ve seen in a while. Hopefully, we get production in the good pattern windows. 

Easy for you to say now that you’re in SNE where all you have to do is sneeze and poof! here comes 16” of snow.  

9 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

October precip: 0.00”

Good

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Considering I did back to back chases at Rehoboth the last 2 Januarys for the best snowstorm(s) of those winters, seems the immediate coast has been on a bit of roll. That likely wont be the case if we get a legit El Nino, however. Those areas could still do okay, but areas further inland would likely be the biggest beneficiaries.

I am 100% chasing to the beach this year if they get a big one.  Your pictures were drool worthy last year.  

5 hours ago, yoda said:

20 games for Wilson

You certainly seem to have a fascination or obsession with Wilson. 

We are wiping the ice with the bruins. 6-0 so far and 4/4 on the PP. So happy hockey is back!

2 hours ago, mappy said:

yeah, i posted about it last week. will be hourly panels from 0-90, then 3hr panels from 90-144hrs

just in time for winter

Thanks! Just when you thought we couldn't hug enough models. 

7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

6z and 18z runs of the euro are now out on stormvista

Euro is 4x/day now?