Temps have been rising here the last hour, from 42 to 46. But stations just to the NW here over the border in PA are dropping so would think we’re about to start falling here.
The Canadien Herpes model actually bumped up ice totals slightly along the M/D border and still advertising over 0.3” here. Trend clearly is pulling back on the ice and we’ll see how it all shakes out but LWX has been really consistent with suggesting minor impacts.
Yeah, I figured I might as well just work from out here since it may be somewhat interesting weather, ha. I’m hoping for some icing on the trees at least for a few nice pictures.
GFS has the freezing line to me at 10p tomorrow night (3-5 hours quicker than other models). Northern MD areas are below freezing around 5-6a Friday. More realistic ice totals on the GFS and ends as snow out here.
3k has Garrett County below freezing by 1a Friday. Northern MD (Manchester/etc) drops below freezing around 6a. 3k actually ends as some snow out here.
6z Euro is a bit slower with the cold push vs 00z and actually keeps western MD above freezing until Friday at noon (5 hours slower than 6z NAM and 12 hours slower than GFS).
GGEM continues to lag the GFS with the cold push. Has DC reaching the 60s Friday morning. 12z Friday has the freezing line crossing through Garrett County vs draped through most of C/N MD on the GFS.
Icing is confined to western MD on the GGEM as precip shuts off by the time the surface is below freezing.
Your area along the M/D border out west to Garrett County and the 81 corridor (Winchester) are definitely favored right now for seeing the biggest impacts. Could be nasty if the GFS temps are right (low to mid 20s in those areas).
Falls into the upper 20s while there’s still a few hours of precip. Mid 20s along the MD. Quite the setup for around here that is not common. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.
GFS was first to catch onto the ice threat and it seems the other models are playing catch up. While I don’t think DC will accrete 0.5” of ice, clearly the threat is there for an impactful event.
The signal continues to increase for a potentially significant ice event for N&W (and some impacts along 95 too). I think GFS is probably a bit overdone with the depth of the cold air press in the upper levels but suggests some sleet even down to DC.