nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Where are you hearing that? Didn't CAPE post a tweet a few pages back saying the opposite based on RAOB data?
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Yeah, of course a foot+ would be better but for me, I'm being realistic and not caring what north/south/east/west is getting.
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shrug...I liked the GFS. Lines up with a pretty 2-4" with cold afterwards. It'd put MBY over climo for the winter.
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@WxUSAF mentioned that earlier. It seems like our goal posts are narrowing around here but look at the variances near NYC/Coastal NJ. Fun forecasting for the mets up there!
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The 6z Euro dropped 40” on my parents house in coastal NJ, lol. That’s pretty crazy.
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We’re gaining almost 2 minutes of sunlight/day - big fan of that.
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You got like 7” on the 6z Euro.
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I’d take this and run.
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Through h83 on the 6z Euro, the 0.5” QPF line is inching towards 95 on the eastern side of the Beltway.
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It seems like the general 1-4” that has been consistently showing up on the models the last several days (ignoring ICON ofc) is coming into focus as we get under 72H. The Eastern Shore of MD and DE look to be the bullseye where 4-8”+ is becoming more likely. We’re within 48 hours from first flakes in western MD (and 60 hours for most of the area) so the finer details of amounts/etc will start getting worked out.
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Assume the 1-3/2-4 solutions will be reality. Easier to keep the expectations in check.
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I’d take that and run IMO.
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2-4” for most on the GFS. More out west and on the ES.
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It’s got the Friday HH snow. Breaks out early Friday morning in the far western areas. Friday afternoon/evening for most of the area.
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FYP
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I put RGEM up there with ICON in terms of useless models. Not discounting a potentially further east solution but they’re way down on the useful list for me.
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I gotta say that NAM run was fun…reminded me of the pure joy during the Jan 2016 tracking.
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I’m in the camp that even if H84 were the total accumulations, it’d be a great storm here. It’s not like we live on Tug Hill where we average 300” — a 3-6” event is fun. NAM suggests more to come though.
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IDGAF what the surface shows. I’d take this 500 look any day. But…the NAM.
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Not going to lie, having model runs to look forward is making working late tonight on some deliverables much more manageable. Trying to bang as much out as possible for the NAM (can't believe I just said that).
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I approve of that shot glass.
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Also Yellow’d for Day 5
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Did your lava lamp explode across your screen?
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A bit more falls Leesburg east after this (more as you head towards the ES)
