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nj2va

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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. nj2va
    I actually thought that was a good run and I like the NS energy diving in as it was more potent. A few minor adjustments and it would have been even bigger. Considering we were starting at 0.0” and that run dropped 5” for I-95 through H90, thats a big win.
  2. nj2va
    There’s way more energy rounding the base of the trough at 84 vs 90 though. And 18z closes off at 90 (like 12z did at 96).
  3. nj2va
    Is that feature swinging down from Canada and phasing on the back end helping with the trough orientation? It seems its trending towards sharper/deeper and negative quicker. All things that will help us
  4. nj2va
    Geesh, just saw the NAM (lol). That ridge placement out west is basically perfect through Idaho.
  5. nj2va
    Apparently, people think we live on top of Mt Washington and scoff at anything less than 28".
  6. nj2va
    It's a combo of the NS vort and then upslope. The orographic lift will squeeze every drop of moisture out of that NS vort.
  7. nj2va
    Severely dislike this post.
  8. nj2va
    current status of the thread:
  9. nj2va
    WPC mentioned this in their disco: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd&version=0&fmt=reg In the new 00Z cycle the CMC has deviated significantly from other guidance over the eastern Pacific, leading to question marks in its forecast farther eastward--specifically a storm track a bit to the east of consensus versus multiple prior runs that were on the western side.
  10. nj2va
    More snowy ‘cabin’ photos from CAPE, I’m in.
  11. nj2va
    I think its all about expectations. Expecting a KU? Best to step away from the thread. Interesting in tracking a potential light to moderate event? Absolutely in the game.
  12. nj2va
    I’d think the Control and EPS will look improved based on that run.
  13. nj2va
    Also looks a touch slower than 00z. Base of the trough at H90 vs H96 at 00z is slightly west and looks a touch sharper like you say.
  14. nj2va
    That looks like a certain storm that shouldn’t be named…
  15. nj2va
    I think thats the 18z RGEM through 84H and then its the 12z CMC but I could be wrong.
  16. nj2va
    WWA for the mountains including Wisp and Canaan/Timberline - they're quickly making a dent in the sizable hole they were in on snowfall totals from December.
  17. nj2va
    #2 is probably due to the upslope threat.
  18. nj2va
    Let's get this to be red and purple by tomorrow. It was issued prior to the 12z runs so curious if their thinking changed at all based on those.
  19. nj2va
    we can't even get snow on a model in a good pattern. speaking of i already see the good pattern breaking down
  20. nj2va
    I also like the idea of a bombing cyclone in the east as it could set up a 50/50 for a future storm for us.
  21. nj2va
    That looks like a lot of "neige" on the CMC precip link you shared @yoda
  22. nj2va
    Especially when this thing was well east of here 24 hours ago. SMH
  23. nj2va
    Yeah, that'd help get the trough neutral at the MS River, which is always classic for this area.
  24. nj2va
    My HSA and 401k are taking a beating
  25. nj2va
    Definitely rooting for the Bengals...like to see a different team in it this year.
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