batmanbrad

current radar trends are supporting the earlier thinking that most of the major activity will be north of DC...

SPC issued another MD for our area, seems to indicate things are continuing to ramp up somewhat:

Radarscope showing some increase in hail size, POSH's up to 40-50% on some of those cells out west including the one you mention.

alerted on Radarscope of an MCD issued for our area, 80% chance of a blue box coming.

The latest forecast for me (Gaithersburg) STILL has no mention of severe for tomorrow, doesn't mention thunder at all! I checked the point-and-clicks for several other cities/counties in our area... nada.

the next D2 outlook from SPC will be out in about 45 minutes. Since the previous discussion had mentioned upgrade possibilities existed (but not at the time for our zones), wondering if they will get any more aggressive with their probabilities.

northern DE, NJ, most of eastern NY, and central/southern New England really score well on this GFS run.

kinda like the old Timex watch commercials... we need Euro to take a licking and keep on ticking... (in the proper direction). if we need 200 mile jump and it ticks the right way 25 miles at a time for 8 model runs... that'll work

part of afternoon AFD from Sterling - still keeping everything on the table while pointing out the 12Z shift in most (non-GFS) models towards an OTS solution: KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system this weekend. We continue to monitor the potential for snow associated with a coastal low this weekend. Nearly all model solutions show a strong coastal low forming, but there`s still considerable uncertainty regarding both where that low will track, and what impacts we will experience locally. Potential outcomes range anywhere from a storm that tracks well out to sea with little impact locally, to a storm that tracks closer to the coast and produces heavy snowfall across the region. The general flow pattern forecast by models has many of the synoptic features associated with Mid-Atlantic snowstorms, with ridging along the West Coast, troughing along the East Coast, ample cold air in place at the surface, and then downstream blocking over the North Atlantic. However, the trend with incoming EPS and GEPS trended significantly downward with probabilities for snow, ultimately showing a further southeast and out to sea track. The 12z GFS shows the potential snowier solution, and GEFS probabilities for snow trended upward. Spatially speaking, probabilities are highest for snow in all guidance the further southeast you go. In our area, southern Maryland would have the greatest chance at seeing snow. It`s worth noting that the flow pattern at upper levels preceding this storm is highly complex. The primary disturbance that will ultimately contribute to the development of the system is actually located over Newfoundland currently and will rotate westward around an upper low centered over Hudson Bay, before turning southward and digging out the trough that will eventually provide the forcing for the development of the coastal low. As this disturbance turns southward, it will also be influenced by an upper low over Alaska and a building ridge over the West Coast. Given the high complexity of these interactions, it may take another 1-2 days for models to settle into a higher confidence solution, and as a result, the door is still open for large forecast shifts.

this kinda reminds me of the movie Spaceballs... suck, suck, suck!

not sure where in Gaithersburg you are, but after shoveling my driveway just as the flip to sleet occurred over here just west of Laytonsville (a few miles north of the airpark), I just went back out again and had to shovel close to 2"+ of sleet... that was much harder than the 6"+ of light powder. In a couple of hours I'll have to do it all over again with the rate of sleet falling now. At least I didn't wait until it was all over - 3-4" of sleet might be too much for this OF to get rid of.

Pingers made their arrival a little after 8:30AM here on the NE side of Gaithersburg, near Laytonsville. crude tape measurement on driveway was about 6.5 just as the changeover started. Sleeting quite steadily now, hoping for minimal ZR later.

thought of you - the JebWalk possibilites would be endless if that even just comes close to verifying...

take it and run with this...

Not likely to be before the changeover since the time says it's through 1PM on Monday... still not bad for the ICON though.