SnowNiner

Nice, enjoy. Then when you're done you can skate down the mountain this weekend!

The -Wow posting index for this storm is way in the negative territory. Not looking like it's going to be good for the piedmont. lol.

Looks like at 120 it's further north, stronger, and not transferring yet to the coast? CAD high looks stronger. Don't know what that translates to, but I don't like how far north the storm is, half way up Alabama.

It'll be an interesting Euro run in a few minutes. Ukie and GEFS pretty amped. Euro strung out mess.

I would guess that doesn't separate mixing issues. I thought 0z was warm, did it get significantly colder at 12z?

12Z GEFS looked like it bumped stronger with the storm, bit more amped, a bit north. High a touch weaker, but a 1040 is still solid. Wish it would creep down to Merica.

It's strange, both the ensembles look they have this rolling south along the gulf coast. Seems like we always get the A/B hybrid no matter what nowadays.

I liked the fact that they preferred the ensembles track, rather than the constant GFS/FV3 inland track. That's huge imo. I'm not bought into this yet, as GSP is not bullish, says it's a mixed bag Miller B that changes everybody to rain Saturday night and Sunday. That wouldn't be the case though I don't think if the ensembles track is correct.

Lol, not sure I'm reading this right but it looks like north of the Iredell/Meck county line stays snow or very close to it. I have little faith in a system that moves that far north before transferring giving MBY much frozen, but I hope somebody in the 40 corridor gets slammed. I'd rather have a nice amped storm where some of us score rather than a weak sauce event with a bit of frozen.

What a bummer if the convection goes across the COD and back to the Maritime Continent. Unless nino REALLY couples and takes over the pattern that would probably put the SE out of the game for the foreseeable future. Hopefully the EURO is wrong, as it has been for the last month or so....

SSW unicorn or not, I still think mid to late January is going to start a really nice several week period where we at least have a +PNA/-EPO with an active southern jet. Take these next 2 weeks to rest up because I think after the new year the long range is going to look pretty good and we start to get storm potential hits on the models.

Bring it! Yeah that's the best forecast I've heard from the fed level NOAA in forever. I'm still waiting for things to fall off the rails but it hasn't. The back of my mind I'm thinking I got my 5 inches for the year, I don't deserve/won't get anymore statistically speaking. Hard to believe everything's lining up for a really great January and February. Cautiously optimistic. Very cautious.

Grit you know bringing up February 2004 is going to make me emotional right? Why toy with my emotions like that? lol. Great winter storm for the clt area that month. I was surprised it wasn't colder than it was in February, and that there really wasn't a lot of west coast ridging. Interesting how we're in a nino, but the atmosphere is not yet acting like one. When and how do we know it'll start acting like one?

Checking in after the weekend, long range still looks pretty cruddy to me. As long as the long range doesn't look like this January 1 I'm ok. However the one thing that may be happening below is the European / Scandinavian ridge may be starting to poke up to the pole and create the -AO/-NAO like back in November. We'll see. Anyway, not giving the strat stuff any kind of validity. It's the unattainable unicorn. My hope is the MJO and Nino Climo getting back on track during nino climo time mid January.

Yeah, I thought the FV3 did ok. GFS in general I think and GEFS really latched onto it at long lead time. I think we started talking about it on the ensembles day 10! I remember hoping the EURO runs would catch on to the GFS suite and they finally did inside 6 days or so. FV3 thermals were too cold though IMBY. I think on this last storm, we got just enough blocking and ridging over Greenland to keep the 50/50 low in place. It actually trended stronger and further SW I believe closer to the storm, which was a complete surprise. But yes, the huge greenland block from November seemed very transient and it's nowhere to be found again in the next several week model runs. Hopefully the Euro weeklies come true for January, they looked very blocky.

Yeah I'm not counting on that....what I'm counting on is the nino tropical forcing pushing us back in an -EPO pattern, getting the MJO back in the western hemisphere. Hopefully nino climo will win out and we can get a little blocking in greenland, which I think was also important to the last storm we just had. We had just enough. In any event, keeping the attack on the vortex whether or not it's a SSW can't hurt.

Yeah, it looks like we're going to have about a 3 week break and recuperation period at least. I need the sleep! lol. Last week in December, looks like the -EPO is just trying to get going again. Still needs work though. Hopefully early January we can get the blocking back established, and we can get this nino show back on the road.

Looks good at the end for sure. I'd hate to have to wait until the last week of January to get it though. Looks warm and quiet until then...hopefully it's quicker than that.

Well, I didn't get my foot of snow for Mooresville, lol. So close to keeping the sleet at bay. Oh well. 4-5 inches of snow/sleet on the ground in early December is great. We've got a long winter on tap it seems. Let's do this again with the same synoptic setup in about a month. Game on.

Heavy sleet, mixed with snow in Mooresville.

Went to NWS to see if my totals ticked down, they went up for Mooresville! What in the world? Looking at the forecast, there is no changeover to sleet? I'm not following and think this busts pretty bad. 11-18 inches? lol. We'll see, FV3 for the win?

Light snow, flurries have begun. Very light though.

lol, that was it...that's how you snow more than me Wow. You're south and get snow first. Foiled again! Still no snow north of exit 36.

It's very odd. Nothing for me either. I jinxed Mooresville when I moved up here. Sorry about that.