SnowNiner

That's pretty bad. It's really hard to get excited about this when the euro/ukmet combo says this is a non-event. But if the short range models continue to honk the horn consistently I don't know.

Well, honestly that's pretty anemic IMO. Two members seem to make up the mean (separate of eastern nc) . Coming around perhaps but I wouldn't say the GFS caved. The NAM is the NAM, but it's showing the real deal by itself at the moment. If it hangs tough through tomorrow showing a similar wet/cold solution I'll climb back up the cliff. Hopefully it'll survive past about 9:30 pm though, lol.

I'd take the 18Z all day for MBY. I didn't move to Mooresville for nothing! lol. I got NAM'd! Although I don't buy it, it's interesting that the configuration of the precip seems consistent with the EPS, just heavier.

GSP says kinda sorta, hey maybe, remember last week? There now looks to be a brief break in the precip Wednesday night as the first wave of forcing moves east and some drier air moves in. Of course, this sets the stage for the potential for some wintry precip as moisture moves back in Thursday ahead of the surface wave moving along the front and some upper divergence associated with a coupled jet streak. The guidance still doesn`t agree on how far north the moisture moves or just how cold the air will be. That said, it is now looking like there will be precip at least as far north as the I- 85 corridor and likely the NC mountains. Precip tapers off quickly Thursday night as the wave moves east of the area. The thermal profiles and partial thickness progs show the precip to be rain or snow with no significant warm nose. I`m beginning to become wary of the snowfall potential given the previous 2 snow events where the thermal profile and thickness values were quite similar. I suspect this event could be similar where precip begins as snow over the western CWFA along and north of the I-85 corridor with accumulations developing where precip can fall for the longest period of time. That said, have followed the national guidance for now which keeps the accumulating snow across the higher elevations and mainly rain outside of the mountains. Of course, this forecast could go either way, so interested parties will need to stay abreast of the latest updates.

Thanks Grit. A couple inches of accumulation and I'd be happy. Hope you're right!

Man, I don't know grit. I'd understand if we were on the fringes of the juice, but no model has significant precip near us that I can tell (maybe the nam long range). You expecting a powerful NW trend here? Storms that are legitimate usually have some models in our court. I'm just not seeing anything close.

Yeah I agree sadly. Ironically when we actually need a moisture laden system, it just doesn't look like we're going to have it. Western NC I think is on the outside looking in. Eastern NC and what happens with the coastal is an interesting question imo.

CFS or nothing. All in. Lol. No really, NAM's our only hope. Sigh.

We just need to move that steady precip north a 100 miles. Such a flat flow, what do we need to look for at H5 to push more moisture north?

I don't know man. I'm not a big believer in the "it's fine it lost it it'll come back" theory. The good ones get latched on to and usually hang in there imo. At least on the ensembles. The ensembles really aren't great anywhere yet. By Monday I think we'll know what's coming.

Yeah I'd have to agree with that. The high is really as good as we've been able to get in years (minus CAD). If that doesn't get us down to freezing I'm not sure we have any hope! lol. With that said, I'm always worried about surface temps. Hopefully it'll be good drama this weekend hoping the euro comes on board. Then, I'll start worrying about temps.

Exactly. If you're stuck with lighter precip, you've well, wet ground from some snow showers. This system/set up reminds me of the temps and precip of this last weekend IMBY. Mid to upper 30s, had decent snow showers but it was light and didn't amount to anything. I could foresee the same for clt.

Thanks Burrell. I'd agree the boundary layer temps look good/decent at the moment. However depending on getting the temp down with rates is problematic when you're not dealing with a strong system. It looks like currently we're struggling to get a good amount of precip in, assuming say we take the average between the EURO/UKMET (strange their on the opposite sides of the spectrum huh?). With a lack of rates, we're not that cold like you say because we don't have good rates. I'm probably getting too far in the weeds this far out, but surface temps are a pet peeve of mine. If we're dealing especially with limited moisture or a light event, I'd of course much rather have cold surface to aid in accumulation. At this point though in this winter, I'll be happy with seeing some flakes fly.

Thanks Grit, you've got a real great way of not only understanding the model variables, but communicating them in a clear way. I always appreciate it! Assuming we do get some moisture tap for the overrunning, the surface temps along all modeling seems to be very marginal, mid to upper 30s. Is there a likelihood to get those temps colder? It doesn't look like CAD is involved with this so I'm not sure what I'm rooting for to see that. High further east? stronger? That variable seems to have remained pretty much the same so far.

Yeah, the problem is there may no energy to work with. The euro took a step toward the gfs in wanting to hang the energy back in the SW. Always something...especially so this winter. I don't think it's dead yet but the euro suite (including the EPS) makes me think this is going the way everything else has this winter.

Just messing around. Fantasy snow is an art form.

Please don't prematurely use a Burger Boom. That's bad etiquette if not a great run. Let's see the run first prior to usage. lol.

That's my hope as well Grit. Perhaps the EPS won't pop a ridge in Alaska because it's not "seeing" the higher amp 7/8. 12z seemed to have a bit of one further out in time but yeah, it's way out there in time.

Agreed. The lack of a -EPO on the EPS concerns me. That's where the key lies IMO for a true pattern change and sustained cold in the east. Rooting for the GEFS but very wary of it overmodeling pacific ridging.

Ouch. It'll hopefully bounce back overnight.

Very nice. I love how through the whole time referenced the west coast ridge axis and east coast trough axis just sits there in the perfect spot. Pretty much opposite of the last 2 weeks.

That's one of the best gefs runs in the long range I've seen. Eps as always not as enthused but still looks very good at h5. Hopefully it ticks up in the mean. Getting to the point where im afraid to keep looking at the models because im afraid theyre going to fall apart. I'm a weenie.

Yeah, I just don't want it high tailing it to the cod and back out to 4 and 5 for February. Take a stroll and hang out in 8, 1, 2 for a while it's nice there, lol.

I really hope the MJO doesn't stall out in phase 7, and start back to loop around.

That's beautiful right there. GEFS has officially joined the party. Bonus: cold and wet. Hopefully the EPS didn't decide to quit overnight and take its ball home.