SnowNiner
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Everything posted by SnowNiner
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We need Kuechera ensemble mean snow maps.
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Lol, yep, I'll take my 30 inches and love it!...until the next Euro run! I saw the low further east off the coast and I knew it was going to be a better run than last night.
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I'm surprised that even with a strong stj storm with confluence and some blocking we still get a Miller b. I dont know how in the world to get a miller a anymore.
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I've seen 2 noticeable trends on the EPS. First, the 50/50 low has trended stronger and SW, which I think is good. That's why our high pressure is modeled great and our confluence is keeping the low suppressed in the gulf nicely. However it seems like once the storm hits the coast, the northern stream energy is phasing and tugging it closer to the coast on the last several runs. Therefore I still like the threat of a good first thump of snow/sleet, but once the storm is to our south, things may pull north and WAA will take over. That's right now. Hopefully that 50/50 will get keep trending stronger and the northern energy will trend slower to keep this thing south.
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Thanks grit, hopefully that corrects south tonight. It seems to be going back and forth, bit north, bit south.
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Yeah I noticed the model output doesn't seem to reflect the snowfall output, even the Kuchera map. I don't know why. I like the pretty maps though....even in a "bad" run I'm getting nice clown maps.
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As long as we keep having these awesome ensemble tracks that keep creeping colder and more suppressed, I won't worry about op runs until Thursday. Other than UK and Euro. I want them in my camp continually and right now. That goes without saying right?
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Lol, what in the world is that? feedback issues? Squiggly wiggly...
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Wait, what? Is that a 12-15 inch mean on the EPS ensembles? Trying to work here people, how did this happen? lol. I don't think I've ever seen that kind of thing. Beautiful.
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Agreed, the ensembles seem rock steady on rolling this thing east along the panhandle and off the coast. I hope the FV3 idea of the inland tug is out to lunch. Temps, confluence and CAD seem to be the question mark still. What on the 500 maps do we look for better/worse confluence? Thank you Grit for the excellent play by play on this storm by the way...
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Are the means cold? I thought they were pretty marginal, from 850 means that I could see.
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At this long lead, I wonder why the NWS doesn't lean more heavily on ensembles. They seem to base their forecast on guidance from operational models in their discussion.
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Man if we can't get a warning criteria snow in the NC piedmont/Upstate out of that sweet look in December, I will never expect snow again in December. Geez. I don't know how I could draw it any better, other than a stronger high. We suck if we can't snow with that.
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Boo, Dr No does it again. Can't beat a EURO/UK combo. Temps just don't want to play ball in early December. Maybe we can reset and get a similar setup in January for the win....
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Not terrible, but not the cold run we wanted. Also the low is a bit more north than we'd like. I don't know. UK and Euro on the warmer side doesn't make me overly optimistic today. On to tomorrow.
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this looks pretty good to me...need that high though to keep moving east with the low and dig in.
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Huge Euro run incoming. Can't have FV3/GFS be the only colder more suppressed model.
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FV3 on its own then with the colder solution of the storm throughout. Hopefully the EURO will join to add weight. I'd really like the UKMET to trend colder there...as well.
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Ok, even I can't weenie out that much. I can't even with that. CLT would bet counting snow in feet, not inches. lol. Gonna have that save that one though for fun!
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What's the key in getting that high to pop in the NE? Some modeling is showing only the midwest high, and some like the EURO and FV3 pop the high in the perfect placement. What synoptically needs to happen for that to occur?
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Hopefully it ticked colder and lower dew points as well.
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Good track, but not cold enough. I want to see the the 850s south of Rock Hill at least.
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Thanks! Yeah, saw the FV3, which was a cold, cold run with lots of snow for everybody. NWS also favored the 0Z Euro, which was colder than the EPS so we've got that. Hopefully we can trend back to a more suppressed Miller A track slider. I need the afternoon runs, like right now.
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Yeah, we need to see this trend colder for sure. 850s shown below won't cut it. What feature do we need to look for to get this colder in upcoming afternoon runs? I heard we lost the Ukie too? Haven't seen specifics. Sounds like bad trends overnight.
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Did notice the EPS and GEFS back off on the cold temps a bit last night. EPS snow mean backed way off. Clown maps are nice, but I'd like to see this thing stay south and trend colder as we get closer.
