SnowNiner
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Everything posted by SnowNiner
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Still dry in Mooresville. Precip has been stuck in clt for the last 2 hours. Can't get north.
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Heavier radar returns looking like they've hit a wall at 85 near Charlotte. Desperately want them to move north...need to cool the column quick.
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Gotcha, ok I've north of you now. Payback is coming! lol. Somehow the golf course ponds will give you more snow still....
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Where are you Wow in Mooresville? I'm 2 miles north of exit 36.
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Sorry, I had that queued up and didn't update. New one is similar in my backyard.
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Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow. I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right. Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...
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HRRR still looks good. For some reason in my mind, it's always been the harbinger of the dreaded warm nose, not the NAM. I'm happy it's on my side. We'll see.
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Thanks grit, to me that looks improved...keeps 850s around clt through most of the storm. Nws still has me over a foot of snow total. Hopefully the colder models win out here.
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Hrrr is usually the crusher of my dreams. Nice to have it wintry for once. Who knows at this point though.
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I was about to say the same. It's on an island by itself. It's either a genius or a doofus, and every storm in the future we'll know how serious to take that model one way or another. I'd love it to be right...
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Yeah, I've yielded to the fact that this is a sleet fest with a nice glaze on top. Shame we had such a nice set up synoptically and can't get a pure snow in CLT. Oh, well it's December. Feels good that we've got at least a storm so stinking early in the season! Let's do this again in about 4 weeks. With a Miller A, Miller B's suck.
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Seems like great south/cooler trends last night. I think it's all going to come down to that warm nose, and can the top down cooling fight it off. That's the difference between just getting the front end thump (6 hours maybe?) and getting the whole storm mostly snow. WPC is on record saying the warm nose shouldn't be too bad as the winds are coming from the east, not southeast. I'm guessing that's due to the 850 low being to our south (wish it was further south). I think the FV3 shows the best case scenerio where the top down cooling keeps the mild warm nose at bay throughout. The other models just don't yet, but seem to do it more last night. Hopefully today's runs makes the cooler trend. Very interested today to see how the RGEM handles the storm.
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Woah!! That's as big as I've seen! please let the other models pick up like that tonight...
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If the euro ticks colder too with the 850s and keeps them in the upstate I'll feel much better. Last run it really warmed once the low got to the coast. Great to see gfs and fv3 correcting colder a bit this evening.
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I hope so, l didn't move from Charlotte to Mooresville for nothing! lol. It always seems to line up that way. With today's trends I'm doubting a bit even Mooresville sees that much. That low keeps getting amped and coming tick by tick north. Eventually I think even Mooresville is a sleetfest.
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Well dang. NWS is still full blast on Miller A synoptics I think with snow/rain mainly. It looks like it's going to just be a big mess/mixed bag south of 40.
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Hmm, I don't know. It's not been a trend, but today's runs were pretty poor with their shifting north and turning a bit warmer. The problem has always been I'm RIGHT on the line. So no there's not going to be huge changes I don't think. But a 2 degree change is all the difference for CLT and Raleigh. Again I don't know if I've actually seen a trend persay, but the EURO (once it hit the coast), GFS, and NAM got warmer. So I'm not confident until I see something go the other way. If Allan put that map out after the 12 runs I'd be surprised. I think they could end up being really high.
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It looks like the 850 low goes way south of us off the coast right? Isn't that in itself a good thing?
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At 72, low is a good bit south in Florida, 850s hanging steady at NC/SC line.
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I'm surprised by this as well. All global guidance essentially shows this, except the NAM. But usually they creep the numbers up closer to the storm. I don't know, this has the makings of a huge bust, but I hope not. Forget you NAM!!
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I'm going to wait for the other models today to run before I say that's the trend, all/more sleet in CLT. Overnight runs were great for CLT. EURO and UKMET. I'm certainly not going to give up yet based on the long range NAM. Saturday morning if it's still saying that, then yes.
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I don't recall ever having an ensemble suite ALL show a double digit snowfall totals in MBY. It's always hits/misses. This is crazy. I see the EURO/UKMET/FV3/GFS with huge totals, but then there's the latest NAM, with the sleet fest for the southern piedmont. That's my concern at this point. Was hoping that the NAM would show a colder solution, not a warmer one in comparison with the global models. It makes me think the larger scale models may be off. However it's the 84 NAM, I know...but I'll be watching that trend today for sure. It is encouraging that the NWS seems to be going with the Miller A pattern for this storm, and specifically call out that the warm nose should be muted, or cool.
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I'm just really confused right now. I don't know where the cliff is at the moment, much less jumping from it. I'm asking pedestrians passing by if they know where it is, but they just keep walking....lol. GSP thinks it's a Miller A (Awesome!), Raleigh says it's going to "evolve" into a Miller B (boo!). All major models and ensembles have a crushing winter storm for north of CLT. However models are showing very marginal 850s and surface temps, and monster WAA lurking behind the curtain!. During the day Sunday looks like it can go to almost 40 degrees. Just going to keep riding this emotional roller coaster up and down...from what I can see though, the trends have been good for many on the board today. I think?
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Here's my forecast in Mooresville. What warm nose? lol. I don't know I'm sure I'll probably switch over too, but it's nice at this point that NWS says I may not. We'll see what tomorrow holds....
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Wow, they poo poo'd the whole thing, didn't they? Even for the Triad. Cold rain trend for the Triad? I'm lost on that one.
