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SnowNiner

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Everything posted by SnowNiner

  1. Thirded. Thankfully with the strat taking a beating it "seems" like the blocking regime will hang around. I read too that a December -AO regime usually lasts deep into winter. With everyone expecting +PNA first of January timeframe we could be right on the edge of a really great pattern first week of the year. Without it though anything we see until then will likely not be cold enough IMO. All eyes on January.
  2. Excellent job Grit! Calls were very accurate looking back. Hope you and the rest are just as accurate with late December going into January. Feels like it may actually be real this time.
  3. Agreed. You really need everything to line up right for a true problematic ice storm. December 2002 was the last one I remember that actually caused real problems IMBY. This week will likely not be anything close. Not enough qpf, not cold enough. All models seem to show eventually Wednesday everything turning to plain rain, washing away the glaze. 2002 was something else though. Just pouring rain all night in the 20's. Dead silence in the morning, everything covered with ice, trees bent in half.
  4. Those dew points are just not very cold. I can't get past that. Hope the 3K tomorrow will see it a bit colder tomorrow.
  5. Agreed, I'd love to have the high pressure in NY and not Canada. Beggers/choosers whatnot, but I'm happy to have some tracking in December. If we keep the -AO/-NAO regime into January I think we score eventually.
  6. You would think this decent -NAO we finally have on our side right now would work some magic and keep the 50/50 more in place. Perhaps it can do work, we'll see.
  7. I agree. Dew points for the Carolinas in the 20s does not seem like we cool that much. That plus the EPS backing off on the strength of the 50/50 makes me think this is a classic north of I40 situation for anything noteworthy.
  8. For me it's all about surface temps. If you can't wet bulb down to 32 (preferably 30), it's just really hard to get good accumulating snow. My biggest take away this storm so far is I want my high pressure in the NE. Good strong CAD signal. Cold air in place first. Waiting for rain/rates to get snow is a losing battle 9 times out of 10.
  9. It is amazing we're talking about snow at all considering the overall pattern. Just think what we can do next year with a raging -AO and super pumped +PNA!
  10. 2-3 in Iredell county. Score! lol. I'll take it. Let me see some flakes fly for a while, make a few snowballs, and let's get on with spring.
  11. Agreed. When there's ANY kind of winter storm in the Carolinas where precip gets to VA, Greensboro and Winston Salem get the lion's share. They'll struggle least with temps as usual.
  12. This is your storm CR. If anybody's going to pull off a winter storm in NC it's you guys out east. You may mix with some sleet but I think eastern sections score even with the warm nose. Moisture hangs out with you guys a lot longer than it will for us out west. That'll give time for the cold to get here IMO. Bask in your coastal!
  13. Thanks, yeah that's been exactly my fear all along. GFS was in and out of there quick too. It's NAM or nothing at this point for mby.
  14. If we could start and finish the storm with snow that would be great. It keeps the rain/snow line nice and south of clt (well lake norman, then quickly goes south).
  15. That's not good. It's going to be warmer I'd expect...
  16. Wow, that looks great. It removes the lull in the central piedmont, hope it's right.
  17. Yeah, well because all the professional forecasters seem to be along with GSP. They're discounting the nam.
  18. I'm worried about surface temps. Per the GFS, we're warm at the surface even though the column is cold and it's snowing. Nam is a bit colder but seems to be discounted by....like everybody. If we're sitting at 36 or so we'll lose alot of accumulation and sticking to the roads is doubtful IMO. I don't see the rates being hard enough to cool us down to freezing. Evidently no other met does either looking at the accumulation numbers forecasted. Everybody is honking the "on elevated surfaces" jargon. Sigh. Hoping things tick colder today. Remember when we were worried about qpf? Nope, it's always temps.
  19. Surface temps are my pet peeve, listening to the snow melt and run down the gutters as it falls. With the nam moving North and North with the warm nose this may not be a very impactful storm for clt.
  20. I'm completely fine with sleet if we're solidly below freezing. I'd just like a strong winter storm event. I'd suspect that's why many mets are going so low impact event with this is 1. Hugging the euro and 2. seeing above freezing surface temps. It would be nice if we didn't have to worry about temps one time wouldn't it?! Only a 1043+ high in just the right spot....
  21. One thing I'm watching though, assuming the qpf is significant in mby, is the surface temps. The last GFS run although improved, still has surface temps around 34 degrees during the event (per soundings). Yes accumulation can happen at that temp but we'll lose accumulation because of it. I'd really like the nam to be more right not only because of qpf but its slightly colder. I'd greatly like to be below freezing during peak moisture.
  22. Really? I would not have expected that thanks. My understanding is that the snow event from last weekend in GA was also poorly modeled by the euro, but well done by the nam. See I write that, but I'm having such a hard time believing it. I want to weenie out but my skeptical mind just won't let me!
  23. That would make sense and give most of NC a decent snow event. However the euro and gfs are on the warmer side of things even if they get wetter. Nam this morning has crept the rain line up to clt. Getting dangerously close to our back yards even on the coldest model. Hoping today and tomorrow things trend colder and that high does work. Like you said yesterday, higher heights for this storm may fight the cold push a bit. Never like seeing higher heights in the SE when trying to get cold in.
  24. Yeah, that seems to be the big question...which is out to lunch, the nam or the globals? Man I want to believe but the long range nam versus the euro/ukmet. My brain says that's not even a fight.
  25. most important NAM run in forever. HUGE! lol. Hoping it holds serve.
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