SnowNiner

Thanks Grit. I sure hope the convection leaving the Indian Ocean does work on the Pacific. We desperately need the -EPO for cold even with the solid -NAO. I think at best we're seasonal to cool with the pattern that's setting itself up. At worst, below the 12Z GEFS. Western trough and the southeast ridge is poking up later in the run.

Thanks Grit. Do you think the -NAO hangs around that long until the pacific improves? Another month? I was hoping the +EAMT would do work earlier and improve the pacific first of January, but it doesn't look like that's the case. Feel like we're on borrowed time.

Thirded. Thankfully with the strat taking a beating it "seems" like the blocking regime will hang around. I read too that a December -AO regime usually lasts deep into winter. With everyone expecting +PNA first of January timeframe we could be right on the edge of a really great pattern first week of the year. Without it though anything we see until then will likely not be cold enough IMO. All eyes on January.

Excellent job Grit! Calls were very accurate looking back. Hope you and the rest are just as accurate with late December going into January. Feels like it may actually be real this time.

Agreed. You really need everything to line up right for a true problematic ice storm. December 2002 was the last one I remember that actually caused real problems IMBY. This week will likely not be anything close. Not enough qpf, not cold enough. All models seem to show eventually Wednesday everything turning to plain rain, washing away the glaze. 2002 was something else though. Just pouring rain all night in the 20's. Dead silence in the morning, everything covered with ice, trees bent in half.

Those dew points are just not very cold. I can't get past that. Hope the 3K tomorrow will see it a bit colder tomorrow.

Agreed, I'd love to have the high pressure in NY and not Canada. Beggers/choosers whatnot, but I'm happy to have some tracking in December. If we keep the -AO/-NAO regime into January I think we score eventually.

You would think this decent -NAO we finally have on our side right now would work some magic and keep the 50/50 more in place. Perhaps it can do work, we'll see.

I agree. Dew points for the Carolinas in the 20s does not seem like we cool that much. That plus the EPS backing off on the strength of the 50/50 makes me think this is a classic north of I40 situation for anything noteworthy.

For me it's all about surface temps. If you can't wet bulb down to 32 (preferably 30), it's just really hard to get good accumulating snow. My biggest take away this storm so far is I want my high pressure in the NE. Good strong CAD signal. Cold air in place first. Waiting for rain/rates to get snow is a losing battle 9 times out of 10.

I'd take the 18Z all day for MBY. I didn't move to Mooresville for nothing! lol. I got NAM'd! Although I don't buy it, it's interesting that the configuration of the precip seems consistent with the EPS, just heavier.

GSP says kinda sorta, hey maybe, remember last week? There now looks to be a brief break in the precip Wednesday night as the first wave of forcing moves east and some drier air moves in. Of course, this sets the stage for the potential for some wintry precip as moisture moves back in Thursday ahead of the surface wave moving along the front and some upper divergence associated with a coupled jet streak. The guidance still doesn`t agree on how far north the moisture moves or just how cold the air will be. That said, it is now looking like there will be precip at least as far north as the I- 85 corridor and likely the NC mountains. Precip tapers off quickly Thursday night as the wave moves east of the area. The thermal profiles and partial thickness progs show the precip to be rain or snow with no significant warm nose. I`m beginning to become wary of the snowfall potential given the previous 2 snow events where the thermal profile and thickness values were quite similar. I suspect this event could be similar where precip begins as snow over the western CWFA along and north of the I-85 corridor with accumulations developing where precip can fall for the longest period of time. That said, have followed the national guidance for now which keeps the accumulating snow across the higher elevations and mainly rain outside of the mountains. Of course, this forecast could go either way, so interested parties will need to stay abreast of the latest updates.

Thanks Grit. A couple inches of accumulation and I'd be happy. Hope you're right!

Man, I don't know grit. I'd understand if we were on the fringes of the juice, but no model has significant precip near us that I can tell (maybe the nam long range). You expecting a powerful NW trend here? Storms that are legitimate usually have some models in our court. I'm just not seeing anything close.

Yeah I agree sadly. Ironically when we actually need a moisture laden system, it just doesn't look like we're going to have it. Western NC I think is on the outside looking in. Eastern NC and what happens with the coastal is an interesting question imo.

CFS or nothing. All in. Lol. No really, NAM's our only hope. Sigh.

We just need to move that steady precip north a 100 miles. Such a flat flow, what do we need to look for at H5 to push more moisture north?

I don't know man. I'm not a big believer in the "it's fine it lost it it'll come back" theory. The good ones get latched on to and usually hang in there imo. At least on the ensembles. The ensembles really aren't great anywhere yet. By Monday I think we'll know what's coming.

Yeah I'd have to agree with that. The high is really as good as we've been able to get in years (minus CAD). If that doesn't get us down to freezing I'm not sure we have any hope! lol. With that said, I'm always worried about surface temps. Hopefully it'll be good drama this weekend hoping the euro comes on board. Then, I'll start worrying about temps.

Exactly. If you're stuck with lighter precip, you've well, wet ground from some snow showers. This system/set up reminds me of the temps and precip of this last weekend IMBY. Mid to upper 30s, had decent snow showers but it was light and didn't amount to anything. I could foresee the same for clt.

Thanks Burrell. I'd agree the boundary layer temps look good/decent at the moment. However depending on getting the temp down with rates is problematic when you're not dealing with a strong system. It looks like currently we're struggling to get a good amount of precip in, assuming say we take the average between the EURO/UKMET (strange their on the opposite sides of the spectrum huh?). With a lack of rates, we're not that cold like you say because we don't have good rates. I'm probably getting too far in the weeds this far out, but surface temps are a pet peeve of mine. If we're dealing especially with limited moisture or a light event, I'd of course much rather have cold surface to aid in accumulation. At this point though in this winter, I'll be happy with seeing some flakes fly.

Thanks Grit, you've got a real great way of not only understanding the model variables, but communicating them in a clear way. I always appreciate it! Assuming we do get some moisture tap for the overrunning, the surface temps along all modeling seems to be very marginal, mid to upper 30s. Is there a likelihood to get those temps colder? It doesn't look like CAD is involved with this so I'm not sure what I'm rooting for to see that. High further east? stronger? That variable seems to have remained pretty much the same so far.

Yeah, the problem is there may no energy to work with. The euro took a step toward the gfs in wanting to hang the energy back in the SW. Always something...especially so this winter. I don't think it's dead yet but the euro suite (including the EPS) makes me think this is going the way everything else has this winter.

Just messing around. Fantasy snow is an art form.

Please don't prematurely use a Burger Boom. That's bad etiquette if not a great run. Let's see the run first prior to usage. lol.