SnowNiner

Charlotte is always, always the transition zone between snow/sleet or sleet/freezing rain/rain, much like Raleigh. I think they poured I85 there based on synoptic meteorology. I hope though with the very nice CAD that is being advertised, we get closer to the FV3 temps, I think it's possible. This thing has the potential with the qpf and set up to be a historic storm. Amazing we've still got 5/6 days to go. This has been on our radar for almost a week now.

Well, right now I think it's just noise. At this point we just check the ensembles and if they still look nice and suppressed along the coast we're good. At day 3 that's when I'll probably be looking very closely at each operational run.

Just catching up with the models today. WOW! I'm a little taken back. Again, I've only been on the boards and looking at models for about 8 years now. I've yet to see what's being modeled so consistently for my back yard. The ensembles have such a nice damming signature (strong) through the storm now. Thank you all for the great play by play and break down. I remember the same think about Eric Thomas. He went on air several days early and pretty much said, Charlotte is going to get nailed by a big winter storm. And he was right. If I recall, that was also an El-nino year with a southern wave. They seem pretty comparable.

Thank you Grit for your analysis through tracking this event. I've learned alot and it's been very helpful. Hard not to get an increased excitement level. Yes, we've had massive busts in the past. But with both the GEFS and EPS showing a nice storm, and all their operationals on board (currently), you've got to feel good about it. In addition, NWS is noticing the threat and are starting to highlight it (which I found is rare this far out). But I've only been on the boards and following the models since about 2010. So yes, there's lots of time for things to crap out. It could completely unfold, crash and burn. Considering the nino, stj energy and the other favorable synoptic elements in place though it just feels good. I've always thought the good ones you can see at long leads. This seems like a good one. Let's see where it goes.

Ok, I hear ya. I could be wrong. I just doubt it would happen that way considering my experience of never having an winter with a cutter. Probably moot as this configuration is not the likely outcome.

Sure, northern CAD areas. But the WAA scours it out in the piedmont very effectively. I'm not sure it's possible for MBY to have a major ice storm with a cutter.

It's a cutter, so I doubt it would be major.

lol, probably an over simplistic assumption on my part; had the mean in mind.

I wonder if that includes the GEFS, which aint bad...

Huge signal there. When the EPS is that deep this far out, there's a storm coming for somebody. High pressure looks stronger up top and located closer by. Looked like the storm is bit stronger this run and therefore ticked north. I don't want to see that anymore. It already looks like the path it takes goes a bit inland over southern Georgia. I'd rather it hug the gulf coast and the panhandle. I think if this is truly inland we're all going to have WAA issues.

Great to see the EURO join the party, seems like it peaked the NWS interest in next weekend..... Incidentally, the fcst gets real interesting starting late Friday with a srn stream system taking shape over the srn Plains and a cold continental high dropping down over the nrn Plains/Midwest. The model guidance has been going back and forth between the precip arriving before the cold air late Friday and Saturday like the GFS, or the cold air spilling in Friday night before the precip comes in early Saturday like the ECMWF. The latter would raise the possibility of a wintry precip event next weekend. Who will win the race? Stay tuned!

Looking forward to getting at least one Euro op crush job to make this feel real. The ensembles looking steady has my mind confident, but I need a nice clown map from the EURO to confirm this has a shot. You would think we could get at least one here and there the way the ensembles look.

There hasn't been a good EURO run yet for the Carolinas, but the ENS has been steady with the low in the gulf with some high pressure overhead pressing in. My guess it'll be the same today. I hope.

^ It's funny the GEFS was bonkers on the threat yesterday, especially at 12 and 18Z. Then last night, the individual members just diverged. I guess that's to be expected at long leads though.

Around 3:30 give or take?

Hopefully the ensembles still show it as a southern slider. Apps runners are no bueno.

Right?, I saw this, didn't even see the precip types but just said...that's beautiful. Man I hope it happens, but yeah we're just so early. And early climo too. We'll see.

Yep, thanks Grit. Surprised there's not a bit more chatter about Dec 8-9. It's 10 days away I know, but both ensembles are showing at least a long lead threat to discuss. Potentially not cold enough, but something to play with and talk about. Afterward the Pacific is bad. Aleutian Ridge and Alaska trough is the opposite of what we need. Hopefully it doesn't materialize or if it does it's transient. Many times December can be the pattern that shows up the rest of the winter. If that pattern materializes and has staying power, it could be a rough winter.

Thanks Grit. I remember you posting those stats a year or so ago about El Ninos and which ones where snowy for us. I remember being surprised that IIRC strong ninos were actually the snowiest for clt. In any event, like you said we're probably not getting to strong nino anyway. Are we losing the modoki aspect of it though?

For the NE and Mid-Atlantic they probably do want the blocking to ease up a bit. For a winter storm in the SE, I do not. I hope we're blocked up from now until March 30.

Yeah I think it's too early myself, and those highs coming into the plains are weak sauce. But patience is too hard, so I track anyway.

Yeah, December and February look pretty good. I think you would see a -NAO there on average. January looks the standard the last 4 years. All in all, not bad. Hope it holds.

Lol. Nice to see the FV3 still has the happy hour run this winter! Didn't want to lose that...

Allan's winter forecast....looks as good as I think you can ask for. December meh as usual, but January starts a good season. Patiently waiting on Grit's outlook...:) http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf

Yep, got a dusting up in the Balsams, 5500 feet. Special weather statement, traffic caution. Wintry mix through the night.