SnowNiner

Not that I put too much credence into seasonal models, but the take away from those IRI maps to me is both Alaska and Greenland are above normal temperatures. That's usually a good thing the for the southeast even though there's no blues down our way. That NSF map though...yuck. Let's just hope that's an outlier.

I think we have them in March and April every year....when it doesn't matter anymore (spring). I'm referring to Dec, Jan, Feb Greenland blocking. We just don't seem to get it anymore. -EPO block in Alaska yes, Greenland -NAO block no. I bet that trend continues this year. Anthony Masiello already doesn't think big -NAO blocking is going to happen this December either. I actually understood a few of his tweets today! I would love some good Atlantic blocking but I'll be happy with a steady STJ keeping waves coming, eventually meeting up with a cold air mass.

Actually, I think it's a pile of bologna. . I can't think of a winter predictor that has had less success in the last 5 years as the Siberian snow cover index. IMO. Nope, we hug all models that don't show it...for the good of winter.

I thought for good blocking Grit, we would want to stay -10 to -20? Somewhere thereabouts. Fly in the ointment? Generally I'm going with the persistence model until it breaks. Last few years, we haven't had any NA blocking at all. Cold came from west coast ridging and the -EPO. Had a healthy dose of WAR too. My preliminary bet is we generally get more of the same this year. I'm fine with that though if we can just get the STJ rolling. If Nino can at least give us that, we should do just fine.

That seems a bit overdone IMO. I may be wrong but I think Brad P's forecast of 4-8 is more reasonable for CLT. Lines up with GFS products. I'll need to check but I don't know if any models showed a foot of rain for CLT yet?

Evidently. Overall this thing has been a bit overhyped IMO, from evacuating the entire SC coast 2 days ago to this. The charlotte observer is telling everybody on the front page for everybody to be prepared to be without power for 3 days. I'm just not seeing it for clt. Yes, there's going to be alot of rain (maybe). And if you live in a floodplain, there's going to be flooding (could be). I'm not sure power outages are going to be widespread even if there is alot of rain. So why cancel schools....before it even reaches Charlotte? Facebook recommendations seem out of control too from what I hear from my workmates.

Howdy all, interesting weather in the summer, go figure! I'm really not a tropical guy and I don't really follow weather very closely in the summer. But I usually pay attention to tropical storms tracking toward the Carolinas. I've never seen a storm that I recall come up SC/NC and go NW (other than Hugo). 98% of the storms re-curve more toward the north and NE. If I had to bet, I'd say this one will do similar. Though we hug the EURO in the winter, I'm leaning toward this affecting the Eastern Carolinas more as usual. I'd be surprised if Charlotte north and west had any extraordinary weather. With that said, considering we've got another 3 days before landfall I bet the final track is totally different than what we're seeing. The last 2 years have shown these systems go where they want to go and we're not that great in predicting them yet at long leads.

Well mid-February is where I like to take inventory and look to end the tracking year and it looks like it's time to punt. No February 27 2004 is in the making. Of course we get a raging west based -NAO at the very end of the season....to go along with a awesome Aleutian ridge/west coast trough combo. Why wouldn't we? Early spring is such a troll. But I'd have to give this year a solid B though. Christmas to mid January was very cold and I got a solid 4 inch snow storm that hung around a couple days. Just a bit above my average and the cold January helped push it to a B for me. That's not even to mention the early December threat. CLT missed it, but got back end snow showers all Saturday afternoon that was fun to watch fall even though it didn't stick. Can't complain. Next year perhaps we can slip into a solid Nino and get the STJ working for us. It seems like for the last several years we've been depending on northern streams systems to dig just right. Surprisingly at least one a year have been working out for many of us. If all goes according to plan, I'll be in Mooresville so goodbye I-85 fail zone!! lol.

No I don't think that. I think it doesnt happen often, especially imby. That 93 storm was no big deal in clt.

I think the fact that it's going to be March by the time it has any effect is going to screw everything up. We're too little too late IMO. I loathe trying to track March winter events where it melts as fast as it falls.

Come on man, now you're just rubbing it in....blows my mind too. Sitting at 4 inches near uncc. Closer you are to Iredell county line, the better you are...its just colder up there.

Just looking at the ensembles, it looks like that's what's going on. The models are not showing what you'd typically see in a phase 8 MJO where there's a clear trough in the east. Ridging abounds in the south. Even out to mid-month. Starting to get worried. Just have to hope it gets into phase 8, even in a low amplitude.

Ok, thanks just didn't remember that. I just remember all the global models going back and forth with the last storm and none but the meso-scale models like the NAM really showed the real threat. Will keep an eye on it to see how it does this month....

I don't remember the Canadian doing well at all this winter. I agree I don't see much going on the next 2 weeks, not cold enough IMO. Keeping my eye on mid month and on.

I agree. Even in a seemingly cold and dry pattern you never know what could pop. Our January storm was seemingly at the end of a cold and dry northern stream dominant pattern, and somehow someway a clipper turned into a neutral tilt trough that scored for us. We've got to wait a bit to get back into that pattern IMO where anything that pops will be snow. When it opens up into the SE though, this time there seems to be more activity in the STJ with more energy coming into the CONUS in the baja and California. If that happens I think we'll close the month very happy.

the last one really seemed to pop out of nowhere, maybe 5 day lead time? The early December hit for GA seemed quick too. I think in a week or so, there's going to be a lot of tracking going on.

Now we're talking...Siberia opens up into the central and eastern US per the below on the latest GEFS. With moisture too.... Hopefully all the guidance comes around to this. GEPS is not there...haven't seen the EPS.

Yes sir. The snow dampening shield in Mecklenburg county is real. Pass the county line north and you're good for +50% totals in any storm.

It looks like the cold gets there too late for the W piedmont, while the storm's in the gulf...then the cold works it's way in by the time it becomes a coastal in the Atlantic cashing in ENC. Meaningless I guess right now...but I'll be looking at temps for that one next week.

Next two weeks, I'm going to patiently wait for for that smug "smiley face" ridging in the south to evolve into a trough in the east. Right now, after our cool/cold shot this weekend that ridging just hangs on, on both the GEFS and GEPS. Don't have the EPS that far out. Just have to hug the MJO to push that west coast ridge east. Hopefully it's just the models having issues and the common sense east coast trough starts making headway into the SE between the west coast ridge and the west atlantic ridge.

It's painful to have to watch the first half of February go down with a "close the blinds" pattern and a SE ridge. Relying on the second half of February is really cutting it close. I know we can snow in March, but they're just so meh and rare I don't follow. But who knows, we could get nice and cold...the STJ could kick in with the help of the MJO and we could get another Feb 26-27, 2004 to close out the winter! Can't complain though, I got a decent snow and I'm grateful for that. Let's see what late February holds as a bonus...

Yes, I'm hoping that's the case for February too, as all the models seem to again keep ridging poking into the southeast for a while. It would be nice if we could get into the trough early February instead of mid. Give us more time to make something work...

I agree, it looks like higher h5 heights want to hang on over the southeast muting the cold for a good while and we don't get into the trough until mid February. Again, even then I think we have to hope for another tilted clipper or boundary layer storm.

Well I've gotten a nice solid 4 inch storm this year so I'm good if nothing else shows up. We have really gotten fortunate the last few years. I see the December/January pattern rebooting and starting again come mid February per pretty much all long range modeling. I'd say that leaves a window of perhaps 2-3 weeks for one last shot. Being probably another northern stream dominate pattern, my expectations are low. Heck I don't even fully understand how we just scored but we did, so perhaps we can find a way to do it one more time in February. If we get another solid event, it'll truly be a memorable winter.

I'm sure I'll get some light accumulations for the next few hours, but it's going to be light due to temps above freezing. That 5 inches ain't happening. This line is moving quick too, hopefully this will slow down and pivot.