ChescoWx

And so it begins at my place down in Sea Isle City

Radar picking up from south to north across the area - so far 2.3" here in East Nantmeal Township

I do love fake news for fun...just saw ABC National News as always leading with " life threatening storm" impacting blank million people in the mid atlantic and Northeast....they really do have a checklist!!

Of course we must....as that is the way the NWS views these events they are considered one storm.

steady but light snow picking up a bit here in NW Chesco and even paved surfaces getting re-covered with snow as temps slowly fall now down to 28.7

The calm before the blizzard at my house down in Sea Isle City NJ

Here in East Nantmeal Twp in NW Chester County we have already received 2.0" of snow so far so - the trusty WXSIM module is forecasting a total of 5" to 7" of snow (including the 2" earlier) for the peaks along the Welsh Mountain here in NW Chesco WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 3:00 PM Jan 28, 2022 _______________________________________________________________________________ This afternoon: Cloudy. High 31. Wind northeast near calm. Tonight: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Low 26. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 29. Wind northeast around 4 mph in the evening, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Snow likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 27, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind chill ranging from 8 to 16. Wind north around 14 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches.

Up to 2.0" as of 130pm temp at 29.7 here in East Nantmeal

Justin you are correct! my point and click had 0.5" possible by this evening.....snow continues to fall steadily but lightly -latest HRRR looks like we may never stop snowing as the coastal begins to throw moisture back to the west. That said much less snow will clearly fall here in the NW burbs compared to philly and points east!!

1.8" in East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County as of 11am

Snowing at a near moderate clip here in East Nantmeal - just drove up from Downingtown to here and all roads are covered. Snow as of 10am already up to 1.0"

Roads already covered here in NW Chesco with steady snow temp at 25.5

My First Forecast Pass on this "event"

My First Forecast for this "event"

It really is amazing how the King Euro has fallen....but what really surprises me is how slow it is to react to the changes. The other models start east and the Euro continues to double down on the error. That said it will go east with the 12z that is the new model pattern.

Wwiper models.mp4

It depends how you run a page - My Chester County Weather Facebook page has since launch in October grown to over 3,100 members. I update them constantly with the clown maps....but I always pound home the maps are not a forecast....simple guidance for the professionals to use as one of their tools to make a forecast. Now if someone is out there saying a model map = a forecast then they may have some issues - my group - some may not be happy but they all seem to love the local non-philly focus!

While this upcoming storm won't be denting any Top 25 list our here in the Western Burbs - below for your viewing pleasure are our Top 25 January Snowstorms Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" - factoid this is the same annual snowfall as Chicago IL: East Nantmeal Twp. Total Seasonal Snowfall to Date Winter Season 2021-22 (7.1") / January 23 (0.2")/ January 20 (0.3") / January 7 (4.3")/ January 16 (2.3") Snow totals by season: 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0") . Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and your #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 source for Facebook Weather at the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx/

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" - factoid this is the same annual snowfall as Chicago IL: East Nantmeal Twp. Total Seasonal Snowfall to Date Winter Season 2021-22 (7.1") / January 23 (0.2")/ January 20 (0.3") / January 7 (4.3")/ January 16 (2.3") Snow totals by season: 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0") . Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and your #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 source for Facebook Weather at the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx/

Agreed not the place! Though before I get some folks who misunderstand my position - I of course believe in climate change 100% - it is and always will be changing - now man-made impact......we need a whole different thread!! LOL!!!!

Still clearly due to the man made heat island all PHL sites should be taken with a grain of salt when trying to show temperature trends for "official" Philadelphia from say the 1880's through today. That is why as my suburban philly data shows a cyclical nature of warming and cooling since the 1890's while PHL is on a consistent upward trend which makes it look like constant warming due to the UHI contamination.

Even NE Philadelphia more urban than any suburban locale is running 2.7 degrees below PHL. The man made heat island should not be counted in our climate records in my humble opinion....the fact the above puts climate and Philadelphia area and then pops an above normal January is problematic to say the least!

That is of course a big problem - PHL is no longer representative of this area......

Classic Urban Heat Island Contamination (PHL) - the airport is no longer an accurate reading and yet we say it is our "official" reading. Below are the MTD temps and departures for some other sites in the area. I wonder if the NWS will look into this growing problem. PHL 33.8 + 0.1 / PNE 31.1 / ABE 26.3 (-4.0) / ACY 31.6 (-2.7) / Georgetown DE 34.1 (-2.8) / RDG 29.1 (-1.7) / TTN 29.5 (-2.7) / ILG 32.3 (-1.3) / KMQS 28.9 / KPTW 27.2)