ChescoWx
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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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JB highlighting the early march timeframe with the more favorable NAO for an east coast event....thinks this one will not go west of apps like last couple. Sees a similarity but stresses not a forecast like the blizzard. Sees same southern branch weakness that Euro falls this far out....says winter not over - despite what many here believe (not saying he is right of course!)
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From JB at WB today "pattern setting up a southern jet under blocking for much of the coming month. Any shortening of wavelengths could mean big storms like you see now. given the trough should be near the east coast the first 15 days of the month, it would be there that we have the best chance for phasing but expect plenty of cold and storms or at least rumors of them for much of the nation from the southern and central rockies into the east as I dont expect the wild warm shots out of the southern plains, relative to normal, to show up from now till at least mid March, As reluctant as winter may have been to come, you may find it that way to go. I have may reasons, and have tried to lay them out for you in systematic fashion, When I say 5-10 days before I expect to see a big SOI crash to initiate something, the crash occurs, I am going to be awful stubborn backing off what I think the large scale result of that crash is"
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Nothing on our site here yet....but suspect we may see a thread by this weekend.... many professional METS already chirping about the next threat next week in the Feb 24-26 timeframe. See WxRisk with a Miller A type and his disgust of GFS seeing nothing yet and JB and Weatherbell all over a big storm idea for next week. JB for one is not saying a big snowstorm but a big storm for that timeframe. Not sure if it goes up the coast or west of the big cities but it is on the radar. Interesting times ahead...
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Hi Haz agreed 100% Paul
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JB just posted on Weatherbell that we are 2 hours into the game and NAM already 1 to 3 degrees to warm around DC He likes 3 to 6 around DC fading to 1 to 3 in NYC but getting worried the 3 to 6 carries all the way to NYC - With SE winds blowing into the mid atlantic states now the wave is not up there yet....
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Joe B with a nice write up on his views for the upcoming event. He maintains this will be a 2 track low (I have not heard a lot of that being stated from the NWS write ups) but he see one up to PIT and the other right up I95. He says this is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big I95 cities the I81 corridor to the crest of the Apps may be in for a major ice storm after 3 to 6" of snow. He says when the Euro finally starts to realize that the temp is not going to 50 in Harrisburg....but is going to 55 in ACY it will adjust the 2nd feature east....so basically the end result will be what he described back on Wednesday. Final message is the process that leads ot heavy snow as far south as VA is going to act as a barrier to warmth surging too far inland - look for a monster mess in the piedmont with this one
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JB on the upcoming big east coast storm "3 storms are going to be used to analog the snow amounts next week March 2-4 1994, Feb 13-15 1984, Dec 26-27 2012. One of the them was a huge rainstorm all the way back here and yes I see the euro but it looks like its developing the upper low too far south and by doing so, has too much ridge in front. I like the storm to the Ohio valley, the reforming over Ga and coming up the coast just inland. Obviously in the big cities that is snow to rain. But the euro makes little sense for instance as the upper low track in winter is a classic areas just west of the track but it has rain all the way back to Cleveland at one time with this. In addition the model warms for instance, State College from 24 to 40 degrees while preciping in 6-12 hours on a southeast wind. So while possible, I dont think its plausible"
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So Eric Horst at MU says on twitter "still a little too early to issue an accumulation forecast but given complex split low set up. But a small to moderate plowable snow seems likely" (that would be for his area in SC PA...this lines up well with JB. JB says he thinks the places of biggest snows this week will be from DC up into SC PA and then up in New England with both PHL and NYC seeing no more than 2" from the event this week....but warns that he believes both PHL and NYC see at least 6" of snow in the Sunday to Tuesday period next week. Points to the 2003 event with a relatively minor low attacking the arctic high.....causing a snowstorm.
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Hence what he terms a low confidence forecast....
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Steve D at NYNJPA weather just updated as he has a low confidence forecast of the 1st storm now moving close enough to impact the I95 corridor with 1-3" PHL area and 2-4" toward shore (maybe more) - with less than an inch back to West Chester and nothing back in my neck of the woods.
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JB touting the MJO as causing the warmth to be delayed but not denied (cannot fight the tropics). Now days 5 to 15 will be cold but centered in the Midwest for cold and snow - including the next big storm after this week which he says will likely go up west of the apps. Basically his thinking is while February will be cold relative to averages it will NOT be as cold as he originally thought. Also thinking we will likely NOT see any big snow storms in the east.
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Hi Ralph I do not see a problem here....again he clearly stated that he is well aware that 49 of 51 members of the Euro do NOT agree....and he very freely admits he may very well be wrong (so do NOT bet with him) but he still has a scientific reason why he believes his ideas have merit....clearly he said right up front he did not want to hype by stating that this storm has NO SHOT of being anything like the blizzard....he said top end if it all worked out the way he saw it - it could be 6" for DC and 12" for Beantown....so yes for Boston it had the potential to be bigger than the last storm. He never said this was a lock of a forecast....I never took it that way. To many folks read his blog - which is not a forecast and take it as such. I and most of us who subscribe do not use his blog as a forecast. However, his thoughts are indeed valuable to me and many others because he does not do what many on here do - and go up and down with every model run etc. I saw someone here earlier see a model run and said....next. That is clearly not what weather forecasting is all about. You need to take all of the know biases of forecasters and sources such as (Henry M - follows models/ Steve D finds all that may go wrong/ Dave T....smart but emotional / LC - a well thought out forecaster but cautious/ EPAWX authority etc. and take all of that into consideration and then bump that up against the best final source of forecasting the great team of professionals at the NWS in Mount Holly. JB and the others I list above have the luxury to blog their thoughts (they do forecast for clients but not for folks on this board in their backyard) and while they are often very helpful they are not on the hook to a person living in this area as is the NWSFO is on a daily basis. I maintain they all have a place in this very inexact science that is weather forecasting. I appreciate all of them...I may personally value them differently to ultimately inform my personal thoughts of what may happen - but I try to never bad mouth any of these professionals. They all add additional info and perspective. Thanks to all of these professionals for sharing their thoughts. By the way it also does not bother me in the least that almost none of the above professionals choose to post here.....or at the other local forum (which I also think is fabulous....and does not detract from the value of this site) again I take all of this information and appreciate all. Just my 2 cents! Paul
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On his PM update he mentions only 49 of 51 Euro member do not support his thoughts.....no surprise he said he is stubborn guy and will maintain his idea.....for now
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Hi Haz I like you go way back to the very beginning....while I know his biases and he has many. He still gives you his thoughts and reasoning....not just a feeling and not model regurgitation like so many. I don't need a met to read me the model I can do that myself! What I do like is a met to explain to me what is NOT in the model. Not sure he is pushing the big dog as much as he can see a way to the big dog. I always understand that so no skin off my back to have him do that. Plus his long range pattern recognition is as good as it gets. So is it worth the $$ for me to get his insights.....absolutely!! Plus his Weather Bell models and others like Joe D make it a tremendous value IMHO. Is he right all the time....hell no....but who is? Enjoy the weather.....ah you remember the rest! take care Paul
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Agreed Jet Phase.....
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Per JB he saw the GFS swing even further out but thinks it is not far from correcting and based on NAM (which he says shows its coming) "As it is , the storm I think is coming is more 3-6 around Dc but for Boston, would beat the blizzard. ( Boston had 8) and its not the beast that 1967 was. But 67 is a useful example. On the other hand, if it does do as I think, it should not surprise you since there was a previous SIMILAR..NOT EXACTLY THE SAME, but similar case to look at." On GFS he said "It certainly did not correct east, but here is what it did do It has a stronger feature from the north. This is critical because the southern branch error is usually to weaken it and flatten it, and the development that far off shore is a product of that. So there are no changes.except to say the 12z run did not step west and in fact, stepped east"
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Agree Anthony....not saying it's a slam dunk but does need to be watched
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JB more bullish than ever on late week storm - says models are too far east - they will come west. Said nothing like last week's blizzard but a storm with top ends running from 6" at DC to 12" at Boston Ralph - can't say I agree with you.....he no doubt can find a way to see a storm storm but rarely "forecasts" it - when he does he is usually good - his big bias is too high on the north side
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Larry Cosgrove (great ex-Philly met) talking about an impressive winter set up through the 3rd week of March- with at least one more major snowstorm and 3 more arctic blast into the northeast....
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JB seems to think he is on a roll calling out the Euro as not strong enough with what he terms the likely phasing on the East Coast later this week....calls out the GFS with it's normal bias having nothing....says not a blizzard but a 6-12 inch storm for some in the Northeast. I saw it mentioned in today's late day AFD from Mount Holly but it looks like they see an equal chance of it staying off shore and maybe not even being snow....could be another interesting week
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JB telling folks why they never wavered on the WB forecast with his old school forecasting techniques and lack of reliance on models. Also warning folks to not write off the event toward Friday this week. Keeps talking that warm water is your foe early in winter but your friend later in winter. Went on to talk about he expects a relaxation of the pattern to warmer but that the cold will once again be coming in February (European week 2 may start warm and turn colder than snow) Another "big ticket" event is likely to happen in his opinion.
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JB sees this as passing inside Hatteras and about 14 miles east of VA Beach Totals DC -18-30 PHL -15-25 NYC - 12-18 Bos - 10-14
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JB posted he was "shaken" by the Euro but not changing his thoughts....believes this needs to come north based on coming though center of country and the warm water off the coast
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JB posted this AM saying he will not be forecasting amounts after this but sees a general 1 to 2 feet from DC to BOS with areas to the west of the big cities LNS/MQS seeing some 30"+ totals. He is riding the Euro control run and says to take 75% of what that is showing and he likes that track and amounts. Also sees another snowstorm later next week...
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JB is focusing on 3 potential winter events now - 1 small one in front on Wednesday; potential big storm on Friday/Saturday and then one more potential big storm later next week. Sees a lot of similarities to the winter of 65/66. Main story is winter is far from over as February should also have it's share of storms
