ChescoWx

Wxsim forecast for East Nantmeal and a view of the output by hour from the program - showing some heavy sleet toward morning This afternoon: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow. High 39. Wind east-northeast near calm. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow accumulation expected. Maximum snow level 100 feet above ground. Tonight: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the evening, then sleet likely after midnight. Low 30. Wind east around 2 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Friday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, rain, and snow likely in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. High 40. Wind east around 3 mph in the morning, becoming west around 9 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.2 inches.

12z NAM has continued to reduce the amount of precipitation. But does have a little snow/sleet mix across much of Chester County early this PM

28.0 degrees here in East Nantmeal DP 16.0 with the wind from the North - still expect all models to lessen the overall precip with the 12z runs this AM....I am however watching the HRRR radar depiction for some frozen across Chester County starting later this AM (see below)

Agreed! I bet it will go with a little more sleet and less ZR before all is said and done - especially out here in NW Chester County...

Absolutely!! from my experience it is by far the best in these ZR potential situations.....

Agreed 100% our Mt. Holly team is tops!! - folks like me can look at maps till they are blue in the face....but the 1st place I go for the real forecast is NWS Mt. Holly.....all the models we post are simple guidance for the professionals like Mike and the Team to take into account when they make a professional forecast.

Our high today before the cold front which just went through was 66.8 degrees. This the warmest temperature since the 69.2 on November 18th. The all-time record high for this date which is 71.6 just 5 years ago in 2017.

If the below as depicted by the Euro was close to reality....that would be an ice storm warning...but I am not biting

As expected the GFS continues a trend toward the less icy NAM solution

It's just better with overrunning events and picking out frozen vs not etc.....I suspect the others will start moving it's way by 12z tomorrow

18z NAM still not in the same camp as the others....

If it comes back and sticks....I would be all in - either way let's see where this shakes out by the 12z runs tomorrow AM

Unless the NAM begins to show this I am not biting on the idea of any significant icing until you are North of the Lehigh Valley.....The European has had a lot of problems this year at this range.

No need for snow blower IMHO. I think there will be very little snow with this one until north of the Lehigh Valley. While the cold air will drill in at the low levels the warming aloft will have no barriers. I like the NAM depiction of lack of snow....it is usually best in these CAD situations...although still out of it's most useful range

Latest Euro....let's hope it pushes a bit further North....also keep an eye on that Storm for Sunday into Monday that for now looks like a southern slider....

Steve I suspect this will be the biggest winter event of the season in these parts....all it takes is one event to get us back to near normal for the year.....

No one else here ever insults others....this is a good friendly site - I don't think he adds much to the site...but just my opinion

Thanks JTA!!

Nice article from the Philly Inky on the differences from Philly to the burbs on snowfall https://www.inquirer.com/philly/blogs/phillylists/Historic-snowfalls-Suburbs-totals-dominate.html

Amen Hurricane A!! it was and still is a silly argument from our LV historian....

Just using a straight 10:1 was not unusual back in the day. What is remarkable is the Coatesville records are so complete. When I first starting analyzing Chester County data back in the late 90's I noticed how many empty observation fields were missing at other long running observation sites like West Chester and Phoenixville (lots of empty snow reporting) . Coatesville has an extremely high % of complete data (all fields) compared to most other sites which makes it excellent for the weather analytics for the County that I enjoy.