ChescoWx
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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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I know JB will never get much credit from most here (he is after all....likely next to DT the most controversial & unpopular professional MET we have) ...but he never wavered (see my Ghost of '67 post) and kept pounding the 3" to 6" in this area that many did not see just a few days ago. That said....we all know his biases (too snowy too cold and of course - way too fast!) and he is just another professional voice in the crowd. But in a tip of the cap to the old days (for those that remember - kudos to JB - that still makes me laugh how often that was posted!
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From JB on potential late week - indicates he was wrong on how the upcoming threat might come to pass... "This will be more phased and further north on the east coast. The trough sharpening like that argues for it and GFS bias does too. However my bias is obvious here , since I have been counting on that system to produce my I-95 snow, ( I can not claim I was right even if it does since its not doing it the phased way Friday I thought it would) I AM LOOKING FOR THE HOMERGUN PITCH. but the model looks strange to me and if we are going to get that kind of beast that far back off the west coast, this should be much stronger near the east coast Just a thought for now... I want to handle system one. Interesting, remember before last years blizzard, there was a minor system a few days before that shut down DC on a Wednesday night ( half inch or so) Wont take much of a correction on the GFS to have one a couple of days before, then the bigger one later So again, I am biased here since I EXPECT this pattern to produce the big hitter on the east coast in the coming 7 days, But I do have arguments not based on my preconceived notions with where the trough is off the west coast ( sudden slowing and sharpening) and the usual GFS problems which such things near the east coast Fun pattern though."
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The latest and greatest from Mr. Bastardi at WeatherBell after viewing the 12z Euro "I am not changing my ideas on the east coast threat next week. Its interesting watching tweets and while there is certainly a chance the models are right, there is just as good a chance that the trough in the midwest is deeper and there is more wave right on the east coast Thursday morning. I understand I may be a victim of my own circumstance... the system is ejected out so fast it does not have enough space to deepen. But it looks to me like a shot of energy comes around through Wyoming at hour 108 and by 132 that is at the base of the trough with energy still piling in from the north. What is it going to take... 50 meters lower over Chicago and Higher on the mid atlnatic coast to change what is an arctic wave dumping 1-3 inches of snow in the mid atlantic and going out to having a storm on the coast and snow spread back into Pa the New England? That is chicken feed 5 days away and the most likely correction given the warm water is higher heights on the coast. I. What is interesting is how after all these years, fears, and yes tears, someone doesnt stop and think, how many day 5-6 storms that nailed me were forecasted out to sea 5 days before. In fact if you live around NYC, most storms that are nailing you day 5 wind up as rain. Sure I may be wrong, the models say I am, But a position that took me some work to come up with is not something I will abandon cause a model says so. If its flat tomorrow, so be it. If its back tomorrow, then everyone will be back going wild."
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JB's latest thoughts on the Euro for January "The Euro certainly is bullish on the major west to east cold in Days 5-15 and the return of cold for later January and into February. It's the period in between I am having problems with given all that is on the table. Speaking of all that is on the table, the extreme major shot (a la 1985) is certainly there. Of the 46 days, it looks like the model literally has a bullish pattern 50-65% of the time, and we already know some big hitting cold is coming faster than it had a few weeks ago. I am very suspicious of its warming but believe the cold it has is at least that cold and likely even colder when push comes to shove"
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Everyone's favorite MET For hire - JB on models this PM "So the point here is I look at that and do not see that as warm. Given other analogs to what has been going on to 1985, I look at that and say look out. The model is likely feeding back on the cold any way. The other problem is that this being an ensemble may not be right about the ridging over Greenland. The operational Euro and the Control are developing a powerful ridge over Greenland in the day 10-15 period This implies the threat of a severe eastern storm and wicked cold anyway during that time and that is something i am starting to look at. I have not been mouthing off much about snow this year cause I have not been impressed in the NE corridor yet. The control is brutal in the 10-15 and sure sees the snow"
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From JB at WB this AM after viewing the Euro his headline is "Snow more luck than the pattern thru January 15th" "The Euro Day 15 is as bad is it gets for eastern cold.. That does not mean it can not snow, but this is as big and anti log to a cold pattern as you can find. We believe ideas that this could return before mid month are likely too fast.The payoff on the other side may make people by the end of January wonder how it could flip that much , but I am not going to get caught rushing it in as per usual bias. I do believe it will return"
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Per JB this AM "The severe cold shot that is portrayed on the models is of the genre of 1968,1980 and 1983 Christmas outbreaks, but a week earlier. These major outbreaks drove temps below 0 into the southern New England cities, The 80 and 83 one even into NYC, but ALL THREE HAD IT RAINING IN THE COASTAL NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS! Plainly this is the message behind the GFS and Euro.. The UKMET and Canadian are further south. The parallel is in the middle For the I-95 show goose its still a case of triumph or tragedy. How can you triumph? Wave with pre arctic shot dumps some snow, warm advection system dumps snow and ice and the warm sector stays just offshore. Then the front pushes through with another wave but further east than models have. .You go from next to no snow to a bonanza. 200 miles west its a meltdown. Where do I stand? In the middle. I am suspect of how much cold can hold after the major shot because it fits the 3 that I was talking about, it rained after. Its the less cold UKMET on that shot that is plainly in the camp of snow after it though." Steve won't like how he finishes because he does not like the pattern but according to Joe B " Its a heck of a pattern...and at the very least, its not last year when nothing was going on. Of course further north and west, if you wanted snow and cold before Christmas, you are getting your wish."
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Tweet from JB " cue the Lost Christmas Eve by TSO. Euro glacier building next 10 days with cold even after means more than normal snow cover"
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Per Steve at NJ/PA weather tweet - "as far as Sunday night into Monday, I'm rather concerned the GFS/NAM is off on this 500mb shortwave" and a funny tweet from DT at Wxrisk "I would not use the 12z OP Friday GFS to wipe the Shxx off of my ass....so many obvious flaws in it - it's absurd"
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Welcome to all - I think we will have some interesting winter weather before Christmas.....let's just all be thankful it will not be like last year!
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Latest WeatherBell winter forecast progress update.... The Verdict I am not ready to change any of the long standing ideas we have based on this run of the Euro Weeklies. We are expecting large scale normal to below temperatures in January and February. So the Euro Weekly run is inconclusive, and run to run consistency is leaving plenty to be desired. Notes and asides The latest Weatherbell Pioneer analogs have 1981-82 first, 1983-84 second, 1966-67 third, 2008-09 fourth and 2000-01 fifth, with 2012-13, 1962-63 and 1995-96 in the mix. The SST analog has this for JFM: This is suggesting a winter similar to the three before the last one, where there is cold involved in January-March. The latest CFSv2 is quite cold for January. My suggestion is that you stick close to our ideas, for at the very least, they have been talking about the current cold. I look for the pattern later this month into January to be back and forth and biased a bit colder than average over the East, with warmth in the Southwest that will have to be looked at to balloon to the northeast.
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From JB at WeatherBell "please reference that with my plea to cherish the challenge of this pattern.. I am not talking about snow in your back yard ( actually in this I am) I am talking about the fun in trying to sort out the physical realities of pattern where a lot of things are competing .I am very concerned that the wave on the arctic front will be the real deal to put snow down all the way to the Ohio river and the east coast Jersey north. The emperor of the north is coming and he likes his white carpet laid down before him. Notes and asides. I am hearing alot of grumbling about the warmup day 8/9 in the east ( then the cold comes again, assuming it left, or put it this way, tries to leave) Now anyone remember the Christmas outbreak in 1980? Was drizzling in NYC 3 days later. Same thing in 1983! Or how about the blizzard of 96... Son of Blizzard a week later turned to rain on the east coast ( dumped 3-4 feet in Susquehanna valley) and then came the storm the following weekend that caused the Susquehanna 96 flood, cause it wiped out the snow cover on Saturday. And 2009... the day after Christmas snow was wiped out That was the greatest gloom and doom turned great winter I ever saw, as the winters over crowd was still screaming it a week before snowmageddon started as the GFS ensembles were feeble in mid Jan. And 2013... 70s in NYC a few days before Christmas. Heck Super bowl Sunday got to 50, then 15-25 inches of snow from 2 storms with in 5 days. Now none of that means a hill of beans as far as this pattern but it does mean something about simply using your memory to say, wait a minute maybe there is more to this than meets the eye. After all if it was as it appears given whichever idea you choose to follow and there was no challenge what fun is that. You know what's interesting about at least the cold coming now? Well you guys know I love the weather, but you can also sense I love sports and I am very interested in the political process. Its like the trifecta watching a lot of this for me as far as the comfort one takes that maybe the answer is not what all the experts say. For whatever you or I wish to say, at the very least, the cold did get to our side of the pole, right? Where was that idea 10 days ago, yet alone longer"
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LC is one of my all-time favorites! Really enjoyed his time on Philly TV - he is missed. That said he has had some rough longer time forecast challenges the last couple years....the only sure thing is this December will be much much colder than last year!! How is that for going out on the proverbial limb??
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Nah...no towel just mentioned the oh Canada Model that if true (which he did not believe) then troubled times ahead. Of course all that said....this year is far from a slam dunk for either cold or warm. I know you are a traditionally negative guy....and you could be right. But with no clear signals either way -the most likely outcome is a fairly normal winter. But a lot of the youngins will think a normal Philly winter of 22" of snow or a normal winter of 36" of snow out here in the NW Philly burbs is somehow a disappointing winter....they don't understand climatology.
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JB post after the Euro run today... "First of all the Sunday night and Monday system is gaining more snow making prominence on the Euro. By Monday morning, that is about as close to I-70 and north as one can get for a call from Tuesday. And lo and behold we have a low cutting under the block and causing more interior northeast snow, and effectively what was supposed to be the big southerly surge in front of monster storm pulling up in the lakes So by Thursday morning this is a pretty good amount of snow for the first week of December. So I think we could fill into the coast. The arctic front pushes and the energy coming around forms a storm that runs to the Mid-Atlantic coast as arctic air comes in. Why not. How many a week ago thought this situation Sunday night into Monday and the system out of the southwest had a shot at all this. Yes I see the threat in the 10-15.. It may be there. But don't miss what could be a lot of challenge for snow lovers before. Good way to get a December to Remember as I think it will be, started. Heh at least the chance is there
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Final Winter Forecast update from the Weather Bell Team "largely follows the evolution of the ideas we have had since summer. That included a later start, but updates began to stress the cold up front, which is obvious now. So we have Colder than normal winter for much of U.S. from the Plains eastward Forecast relies heavily on our analogs, the WeatherBELL Pioneer model and the path we have been on, which has been largely correct since last spring.Our snowfall forecast is relying on the cold to produce both Lake Effect and large scale storms over the interior Northeast. The big news is that the core of the heaviest snow is back to the northwest but the big cities should be above normal anyway.The forecast is cold because we feel the cold options will either fight to a draw or win most of the time. This would leave warmth making appearances, most amplified in the Southwest and extending across the South. The feedback of the season, now that cold is coming into North America, is arguing for snow and cold to develop a partnership, as it's the right time of the year for that. In terms of other winters and the potential that is on the table, our forecast is tame, though most certainly at odds with any warmer ideas out there"
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Per JB this AM on overall winter forecast....he sounds a little concerned me thinks!! "There is no sugar coating the implication of the Canadian model Our forecast is out and looks nothing like this, and if it is right, its as bad as it gets a rerun of 11-12 and even a bigger debacle for me at least I had not spent 6 months forecasting it to be cold. As ugly as it gets"
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Per JB this AM "Wow, that is one cold 8-14, in fact the coldest since December of 2013!"
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From JB at WeatherBell from this AM "The 6-10 is cold, it gets colder again in the 10-15, but there is a warm up on day 10 in the middle and that could be our first storm that can not get all the way to the lakes, but instead runs to the Ohio valley and is forced to be handed off further south cause of the western atlantic trough. Just like early this week I kept pounding away at the overwarmed period for this upcoming weekend. ( One more reminder in case you forgot.. 12z Dec 2 from days out was supposed to look like this) would look for that system that is in the southwest to kick out and then shear out through the mid-atlantic states. Instead of a storm running up to the lakes, we get a flatter wave with ice and snow down to I70 in the plains and perhaps all the way to the east coast when that comes out. Lets see if we can pick that out too...But the bottom line is using overall methods certainly whipped the models for yet another weekend ( next weekend) and now lets see if we can play with the period around day 10 to see if using the large scale ideas can help"
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I love Glenn....but just like JB has a cold bias....Glenn has a warm bias. That's why it is best to take a cross section of all the great professionals out there Like JB/Glenn/LC /SD and even the crazy man from Richmond. That said for Glenn to have a minus 2 and and normal for January is a good sign for those of you that are rooting for a cold winter....should be interesting. Looks like a fast start to winter in December - enjoy! Paul
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JB at WB update today shows the pattern developing according to the WB forecast....says this December will be very different from last 2 years. Says snow will be on the ground from interior mid-atlantic through plains come Christmas. I have been telling all my friends/co-workers that it is a stone cold solid lock that this December will be colder than last year!! How is that for sticking my neck out there? Of course last year was the warmest December ever....so not such a stretch! Paul
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WB Team has updated their Winter forecast with headlines as follows: Extreme cold December possible ( 1 to 3 degrees below normal over the Northeast including the PHL area) Analog technique favors back and forth with leftover colder than normal January/February Still relatively high uncertainty Swath of above normal snows over Pacific Northwest to western High Plains and in the Great Lakes and Northeast Texas, southern Plains and Southeast look milder Core of cold should stay mainly to the north The WeatherBELL team has settled on the strongest analogs of 1966-67, 1983-84 and 1995-96 with 2013-14 double-weighted and single weights to 1960-61, 2005-06, 2008-09 and 2014-15. The pure analog is colder, but to adjust for modeling that is warmer and a more modern climatology, a degree was added across the board. The Verdict A colder and snowier winter is on the way for the Great Lakes, Northeast, much of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with warmth centered in the West. The warmth could also extend across the South. There is a danger of major cold from Thanksgiving to New Year's. As far as later in the winter, we will evaluate that as we get closer. Given the worry about December, it has been made the coldest month, with some backing off in January. February is bound by a greater uncertainty with how far out it is. Overall in terms of the last 8 seasons, this would be the fifth coldest out of the eight. The worst case it could wind up in the top 3, though. I seriously doubt it would be warmer than the warmest three.
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Haz there is really no one quite like him....fascinating guy
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Looks like JB while admitting he was a bit too far east with his forecast is talking up his being the only snow forecast in the 4 to 6" range that may verify in South Jersey
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Exactly! I enjoy his thoughts.....he always can see the way to big snow or storms.....his long range ideas are usually pretty good to identify model weaknesses etc. However for a real forecast I just go to the NWS
