ChescoWx

JB thinks the POTENTIAL is there for what the European is showing to come to fruition. He thinks there will be spots in the mid-atlantic to New England that might be able to near their seasonal snow averages before the end of the month. He said it has the earmarks of a period of time weather weenies will long remember. Of course he qualifies the statement with he is not yet making a forecast but patted WXBELL team on their backs for seeing the cold returning when so many others were saying winter over etc

not so swell....but he did keep saying he was being stubborn - which as we all know is his bias. Still overall on pattern recognition he has been top notch this year with the exception of the delayed but not denied December cold

Dr. Joe D weighed in that anyone thinking winter is over is in for a rude awakening....also JB in his post today said the WB team is confident their winter forecast is right on track...even with the longer December thaw then they forecasted.....we shall see what we shall see.

From JB today - no changes (call me shocked!) "Because the GFS is likely to vary between runs like last night and runs where it jumps energy out front. The ECMWF is in its drag its heels time frame. So as far as my ideas.. no changes. A model showing what 06z had is no more valid to me than one that has nothing from this stage. In the scheme of the entire global pattern, these are very tiny systems that if they vary a bit , means alot as far as the sensible weather result. I am old pattern recognition forecasting.. I have a strong max going south of the four corners with a big arctic high in the northeast supported by high heights that have to collapse in the Wed-Fri Period. There should be a big storm. With models all over the place, I will stay with what I have for now I guess that was a comment, but the comment is there is no change in what I was commenting on"

From JB on the midday Euro "Just a brief comment to acknowledge what you all see. I wont be changing my ideas, I like this pattern for the threat of major phasing on the east coast, understand why I may be wrong, but also given the history of storms that have occurred with features out of the southwest, pulling my idea 5 days away may just be an invitation to flip flop"

no arguments on JBs point there....no doubt you are one of those who see him as a hypester......I clearly do not but when it comes to JB folks are very passionate on both sides of the aisle so no use arguing why I see him as kind of like Fox News.....fair and balanced - the antithesis of MSNBC if you will. That said as I always say my first source of weather information comes from the best - the PHL Mount Holly Team!

JB today seeing the cold continuing for the most part with possible brief pull backs but overall a cold pattern for the next couple months also saying the models won't see it but watch for the 2nd strong arctic outbreak following this week's impressive one to be attacked by an upper feature that the models will lose but will result in "quite the snowstorm from the plains to the east coast in the 8 to 11 day period.

From NYNJPAweather - Steve D - tweet this AM "I do still think winter delivers and in a big way. We just got a little side tracked"

Latest from the WeatherBell team and specifically a tweet from JB this PM "We think what happened in the mid and latter part of November is on the way next 2 to 3 weeks, but mid-winter style. We can compare come mid January" No doubt we shall compare......right here! Also on the WB website he says after the PM Euro came out today " Amazing how the colder this gets...the more I hear people say nothing is going on - Here is the problem - ONCE THE ARTIC AIR IS IN THE PATTERN, then we shall see what these different short waves do and how the models handle them. I would not even write off the first one early next week, the models have next to nothing with it now....let's see what this looks like on Sunday"

JB admitted to his big bust on the amount of the USA by Christmas morning....good to see no excuses this time!

Many at least dusted off some snow and some of us did indeed shovel snow!

JB picking on one of his favorite targets.....the ole GFS " In the meantime, once again, major development several days out near the east coast, looks like it was not seen by the flagship of the US model fleet. Kind of hard to believe how many times this happens. But at the very least, you can watch for things like this and see if you can pick up the ones the model hits, and the ones it does not. As in most cases, it rarely scores the coup"

JB in a tweet today - not saying I believe him just sharing..... " If ECMWF, UKMET, JMA and Canadian are correct (GFS stands alone as non-event) we will see how warm next week is in the Northeast...while many shovel snow"

JB tweets " idea of eastern blow torch is poppycock thru mid month backed up by non US models EC looks like Euro with snow in 6 to 10 days"

From LC at WeatherAmerica's Saturday Newsletter "You just have that feeling that the upcoming DJF period will be "something special". After all, the coverage of ice and snow across the Northern Hemisphere is well above normal. Repeated connection of tropical forcing from the western and central Pacific Ocean to the polar westerlies has produced one of the coldest Novembers in history. And a weak El Nino is working in concert with warm water pooling along the entire rim of the shoreline of western North America. So even with the recent relaxation of the 500MB longwave pattern there is still that general sense that more atmospheric theatrics are coming. It is just a question of when, and what feature could "trip the trigger", so to speak, before bedlam ensues and populated areas experience more harsh cold and snowfall. Over the past few months I have been calling attention to "typhoon injection syndrome", where a particularly large tropical cyclone in the western Pacific Ocean joins with a linkage between convective groups associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the polar westerlies, culminating in the enhancement of an mAk vortex below the Aleutian Islands. Such a huge, cold gyre would then pump up ridging in the -EPO, +PNA, and -AO positions. The furthest chain-reaction result, of course, would be a plunge of bitter cold temperatures into the lower 48 states to the right of the Continental Divide. As a first order of business, please note that the analog-derived formula for monthly and seasonal forecasting has performed extremely well. Yes, we did see a cold, though volatile November with some states (such as Texas) having their coldest eleventh month on record. And it has become apparent that the milder alignment should control at least the next ten days. But then the typhoon scenario rears its ugly head. There is excellent agreement among the numerical models concerning the formation of a powerful tropical cyclone from the disturbed area now working westward above Papua/New Guinea. This feature is predicted to intensify greatly, then smash into the central and northern Philippines in the 6 - 10 day time frame. Recurving around a growing heat ridge over the western Pacific Ocean, this typhoon would rocket northeastward and become enmeshed within a sub-Aleutian vortex. As was the case with Super Typhoon Nuri, the resultant "superstorm" would build atmospheric height profiles throughout Alaska, western Canada and the Arctic Circle. So at some point during the 11 - 15 day period, we are going to see a ferocious blast of cold slip down off of that snowpack into the Great Plains and points eastward. It is entirely possible that this could be a transient cAk intrusion. You will notice how warm the West and much of the Grain Belt is in the December analog profile. But around mid-month, the southern branch jet stream will activate, shooting a potent storm along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard. So I am confident that at some point between December 15 and 22, interaction between high-latitude ridging and a deep Dixie/East Coast storm will send the brutal reality of winter cold as far south as Mexico and Cuba. And as an extra bonus, maybe chances for plentiful ice and snow for the Hanukkah/Christmas/New Year's period. See what a cheery mood I am with the arrival of the holiday season?"

Steve D at NJPA weather has my area in 6-10" with 2" to 4" toward Philly - seems a bit aggressive but what do I know....

Per JB at WB "Prettier people than I can take over the storm now and the battles rage on the blogs over the amounts in the big cities. This is a fight DC to NYC in the cities, Though once to Boston, its much more snow. I don't have much change. I like 3-6 park, about 3 PHL and 1-3 DC, but once 20 miles northwest, up about 200 feet heckuva storm" "Put it this way, its a heck of a lot more than what was being said ( or written off) last week. So I am not going to play in the backyard brawls over someones picnic deck. Not that I am above it, I have just learned that if I can give you some ideas before hand on some things, then I will leave it to the others to clean up any mess, or lack of it. Now look, you guys fight nice, and remember once you change a forecast, you forfeit what you said before.. right? I do like overall a blend of the NAM and ECMWF" Now to the problem at my hand. First of all a heck of a way to run a warm up next week with a high cresting at 30.80 over the northeast

Latest from JB at WB "So the call continues to be the more westward idea on the precip and the more robust snowstorm that the ECMWF has. That is not to say the GFS can not be right, it certainly can. But it is to say what you are seeing in them plays into the known error bias on storms. As it is, both the GFS and the ECWMF for Thanksgiving Time have a heck of a storm, though the ECMWF is the bigger of the two as far as extent of snow and the spread a bit further west. I think these larger scale ideas are what to really focus on, at least for me, for they do change where a model thinks a track will be. Given the time of the year, and all the warmth around 2 days before the event, its tough to believe some of the further east ideas for me"

Latest from NJ PA Weather (Steve D) For PHL and nearby burbs - Cold rain for most of the storm, ending as light snow on Thanskgiving with minor accumulations on cold surfaces - for far N and W burbs - Rain, mixing with snow at times. Ending as snow with accumulations up to 4" possible

Latest from JB "GFS has continued expected westward shift toward ECMWF on Snow...think overall idea of leader through Midwest with follower up east coast FROM LAST WEEK is good this week"

In addition to the WB team beating the drum all week regarding the Thanksgiving snow threat JB is seeing the relatively brief warm up coming before the locking in to what is their current winter forecast....we shall see "I do think a relaxation is coming for the first 10 days or so of December. Its something almost all the coldest el nino winters have. Some have outright warm Decembers ( 1957,1965) There is alot of bouncing around going on out there, but when the smoke clears, I feel very good about what we said before the season. Of the 5 months where the nation is most concerned about energy and snow, the first one is certainly out of the box with gusto. And guess what may happen? Suppose you get this and the cold that is touted.. You get to December 1st and while its getting warmer, all of sudden you see what may be the turn to colder mid and late December Certainly beating the drumstick for a cold turkey day with snow around would be a feather in our cap if this tail turned out this way."

JB on the upcoming warm up - but more cold to follow "alot of people thought it was going to be a heck of a lot warmer than they do now. Weatherbell has told their clients there was a warm up coming, yes against the severe cold, but against averages quite another thing. And our continued pounding away and letting people know that analogs mean something and to be very careful when the merchants of mild take the field because there are ambushes lurking. If you want to call us the Kings of Cold, since mid winter 12-13, I dont think anyone on our team would have a problem with that"

From Larry Cosgrove at WeatherAmerica and his weekly newsletter "As I reviewed weather forecast charts over the past few days, my memory was jogged back to a time when incessant cold intrusions, massive winter storms, and extensive blocking signatures were the rule and not the exception. I am talking about the late 1970s, a magical time in my life when forecasting the weather was far more difficult than what is the case today. However, the predictions were more exciting not just because of difficulty (computer modeling was in its infancy, with only the Barotropic, LFM, and AVN series to choose from), but also because if you liked the challenges and the eventual extreme outcome, you got to view history in the making. All of this nostalgia has a point, you see. It has been a long while since I saw nearly all of the numerical models set up a triple or quadruple blocking signature with an active southern branch jet stream. Even more bizarre is the notion is that this configuration could last for two weeks or more! You see, if you review even the extreme cold seasons of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, the radical cAk plunges were quite progressive. Colder monthly averages were achieved by multiple delivery of colder values, not by a routine day-after-day cold spells. This "long lived chill" is the scenario we may be facing for much of the rest of November, IF the equations verify! There seems to be some agreement also on the idea of yet another storm taking shape in southern Texas around November 20. The most probable track for this system is probably a "Miller A" type along the Gulf Coast and then running up along the Eastern Seaboard. If we do maintain a mild West vs. cold Central and East alignment, the snowpack will drop as far south as the Ozark Plateau, Tennessee Valley, and possibly just to the right of the Appalachian Mountains (NC to ME). Remember that the more snow we get farther south only favors a longer stay of cold air and more of a "duration winter". I am still sticking with the idea that after a volatile late November and December (leaning cold but still capable of some warmer "burps" east of the High Plains), that we settle into a rather painful stormy and bitterly cold period from January through much of March. So far the analog comparisons have been correct with respect to the coldest values this month being mainly between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia. Speaking of analogs, I am toying with the idea of adding 1976-77 and 1957-1958 to the roster of comparative winters. The ferocious 1976 set-up had help from a typhoon injection (just like Nuri), while the fall of 1957 saw a very warm SST anomaly along the entire eastern shoreline of the Pacific Ocean. The former period had a lasting and strong national warm-up starting in mid-February, while the latter was notorous for its balmy December followed by a brutal JFM time frame. The 500MB and temperature deviation charts for the DJFM realm are included above, using the additional analogs. "Mild West, Cold, Stormy Central And East" may be ringing in your brain this winter. Along with high energy and grocery bills, too."

He did a great job with nailing this storm way in advance and I do like his admitting his bias (which we all know of holding on too long). Like him or not he is good with overall patterns....IMHO October 31 06:51 PM It is likely you will not live through a period like this again. No, not the individual storms, but the amount of variables being thrown at you at once, exposing the helplessness of longer range models. Man, being a smart creature will adjust and next time we see a major climatic shift, the model should be ready. That being said, once they caught on to this system now, they have done good. Some of the old biases did not occur, and my bias of hanging on too long did, so its machine over man when it comes to the end game here. Since no one was looking a week ago, the fact that this was picked out then likely does not matter to most. Going forward, I think since Feb 2013 there has been a major model bias to warm overall in the longer range. Many lah de dah, its going to be warm long range forecasts have been blown out of the water. Its that simple. Occasionally Sept 2013, and Oct 2014 have shown up, but by and large. 10-15 days the major models that the markets have been glued too have been too warm in the month ahead and the season ahead. But if this winter turns out to be even nastier than we have, it wasnt that there were not hints Look at this snowcover.. close to the all time record for the last day of October

@BigJoeBastardi: Very warm water off east coast supplies the energy for what could be a severe noreaster tracking from near Va Capes to Cape Cod on weekend Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk