ChescoWx
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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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JB seems to think he is on a roll calling out the Euro as not strong enough with what he terms the likely phasing on the East Coast later this week....calls out the GFS with it's normal bias having nothing....says not a blizzard but a 6-12 inch storm for some in the Northeast. I saw it mentioned in today's late day AFD from Mount Holly but it looks like they see an equal chance of it staying off shore and maybe not even being snow....could be another interesting week
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JB telling folks why they never wavered on the WB forecast with his old school forecasting techniques and lack of reliance on models. Also warning folks to not write off the event toward Friday this week. Keeps talking that warm water is your foe early in winter but your friend later in winter. Went on to talk about he expects a relaxation of the pattern to warmer but that the cold will once again be coming in February (European week 2 may start warm and turn colder than snow) Another "big ticket" event is likely to happen in his opinion.
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JB sees this as passing inside Hatteras and about 14 miles east of VA Beach Totals DC -18-30 PHL -15-25 NYC - 12-18 Bos - 10-14
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JB posted he was "shaken" by the Euro but not changing his thoughts....believes this needs to come north based on coming though center of country and the warm water off the coast
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JB posted this AM saying he will not be forecasting amounts after this but sees a general 1 to 2 feet from DC to BOS with areas to the west of the big cities LNS/MQS seeing some 30"+ totals. He is riding the Euro control run and says to take 75% of what that is showing and he likes that track and amounts. Also sees another snowstorm later next week...
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JB is focusing on 3 potential winter events now - 1 small one in front on Wednesday; potential big storm on Friday/Saturday and then one more potential big storm later next week. Sees a lot of similarities to the winter of 65/66. Main story is winter is far from over as February should also have it's share of storms
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Mainly much colder than previous forecasts for early week and maybe a little more snow with the arctic wave on Sunday into Monday...he very well may be right
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JB posting on the 12z Euro - sees it correcting on it's "west bias" and is now close to an east coast snow event from Northern PA up thru New England. Then he sees a 2nd storm forming on the arctic front on sunday with a low inland over GA and another one organizing on the VA capes and the model goes from t-.10 to 0.3 to 0.6 and some of that at 20:1. Also says forecasts will bust here early in the week as it will be much colder than current forecasts with single digits spreading southbound.
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DT - my tongue was firmly in cheek.....
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JB on his morning video today said the next 45 days could be a "snowmageddon type" experience from Texas up through the mid-atlantic with possibly 7 storms that may come up the coast and then to see if they come up all the way....he said it just doesn't get any better than this as far as pattern. We shall see - no hype there - but as a wise man once said.....you don't have to shovel models!
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This morning JB laying out the GFS being an outlier on day 15 - when both the Euro and Canadian have a deep trof over the east and very cold while the GFS is well....not. JB sees after the first rain event this weekend a 2nd storm will follow and come right up the coast to the mid-atlantic with snow and very cold to follow. Also, is betting someone will hype what is coming as the "Polar Vortex"
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To paraphrase a very interesting JB video from this morning on WeatherBell. He sees - January is looking rougher by the minute and while the GFS is in it's usual la la land - the WeatherBell team is alerting their clients that while January will certainly be cold - in fact he said it will reach levels approaching 2014 with single digits into the big cities and then February will be quite the cold and stormy month. JB also said to expect a lot of folks to start talking about the moderating that will take place after the upcoming cold - but to not be fooled by the folks who will believe the CFS. Of course he pulled out his famed Brazil Meteogram for Chicago and Atlanta remains very confident that the WeatherBell Seasonal snow numbers will be working out real well with well above normal snowfall from the southeast up into and including the Philadelphia Metro area by the time the last flake is counted.
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From the Joe B at Weatherbell this AM "The idea of a major storm on the east coast in the 8-10 is still very much alive and kicking. The height falls to the south later this week bring a relatively warm storm up on the back side of the arctic air the front part of the week, but a second storm comes out of the gulf this weekend and this has been a target for a week now from me. It will also be my 3rd attempt at snow in the coastal plain this winter from 2 weeks out and so far 0 for 2. I am keeping score. Behind it the whole jet dives in. Can we make a rule. If you said Jan would be warm, no matter how cold it gets, you cant call what will come through the Polar Vortex? Wait till the Meteo media wakes up to what is going on."
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Either way I am good with the majority opinions....plenty of good posters are in NYC.....unless a met fan.....just joking Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk
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Ralph - if you want snow in this area - the suppressed track is what you want. The American models will always show those as going south and then the correction occurs as we get closer. Better to have the cold and work out the track then need the cold IMHO. Happy New Year Paul
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Hi Ralph, Not sure it will be as severe as LC paints - although I do respect his opinion.....but a much colder than December than January (how's that for an easy call?) seems in the cards. Paul
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Dr. Joe D with Wxbell says the models are catching on to the coming pattern change which should get underway around the New Year
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JB update from this AM.....sees a cold start to December and then a warmer month but sees a SW to NE snow event during that timeframe. Then a warmer (he says it will have to be after the cold start) to get to the WB forecast. He calls up a 1986-87 winter analog that matches the heart of winter as he sees it. There really seems to be strong agreement among most vendors with how they see the winter playing out. Now will any of them be right......
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Was away all day today....but it looks like the Weather Bell folks changed their forecast (officially) at 5am this morning.....now the latest tweet from JB "For a hurricane that's not likely to pass within 400 miles of the US this weekend there is certainly a heck of a lot of hype out there"......things that make you go hmmm!!
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from JB this evening on Joaquin, He said he finds himself allied with modeling that he has always thought inferior.. To quote him "So why not change. Well for one the way hurricanes hit the US, and this is why I have been so adamant about saying this season is over, is, in essence, the way the pattern is. Digging trough catches storm with major positive anomalies over northeast Canada into the Altantic. In fact, if ALL MODELING WERE OUT TO SEA, AND THE EURO WERE WEST, I would most certainly be on the side of the Euro. The other thing is the ECWMF sometimes has problems near the east coast. It seems to make sure the digging trough and the hurricane stay separate. At 48 hours it looks like its going to get caught"
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JB honking for Sunday night and Monday says expect models and forecasts to continue to get weaker and colder and is thinking a major battle N of MD line....says someone between PHL and NYC could see a repeat of what took place in DC with the last storm. Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation"
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Paraphrasing from JB's article today - sees models "catching up" with future runs to come to his ideas below He said remember the storm I got caught off guard on, before the blizzard? Came up the coast, and 4 days before I did not even think it had a chance ( that's right, I remember mistakes) Anyone seeing the same kind of thing going on here, but with a lot more cold air? In any case he sees this as not far away from turning into a real headache all the way up to New England. Slow the southern branch down a bit and since the big height fall center with the clipper is back in the midwest, it can get interesting. As it is, the western system should come in with snows, and at 30-1 it will be a good storm over the Miss valley into the midwest and that snow should hold together north of the areas that get the snow with the system from the south, which looks to be all the way to at least the Mason DIxon line. This time the snow in DC will fall with a wind that wont cause me to gawk. So here is what I think... Look for the southern storm to shift north a bit more The storm from the west to hold more with it north of its track. And the system early next week, another frontal snow, to have its snow swatch shift south more then currently modeled
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JB on the twin arctic avengers "Twin Arctic Avengers that can have blizzard conditions with them ( though snows won't be as great as the Jan 26-28 blizzard) will impact the east the next 7 days. The first will have its epicenter where the blizzard did, but also have some snow further back west and push the south part of the eastern snowbank south a bit, into the northern mid atlantic The Second is likely to have its epicenter on the south end of the snowpack.. which means it may leave snow on the ground all the way to the Va-NC border As these travel southeast through the northern plains and midwest, it will become clearer that the scramble period of mild is gone and the backing of the cold is underway. Next week, will lead to enhanced snow further south and west, well into the plains and at this time, as far south as the I-40 corridor. The core of cold will expand back west. The winter so far has had its share of triumph and tragedy. I feel very confident of 2 things. 1) the snow forecast which is first to last flake.. will by and large workout, and by that I mean, if we have above normal it will be above normal.. I can't say it in every single backyard spot, but I love what I see as far as the pattern goes 2) We had an area of -5 for this winter over the still warmer than normal midwest ( Dec-Jan) For the specific winter season, Dec-Feb, I think we will get that, but over New England, again a maddening WESTWARD bias of my cold ( Last year because it was over the plains more, and everyone was cold it did not matter. but the core was supposed to be east. Its maddening because my bias for much of my career was too cold too far east! But another thing to point out, and this is probably in the excuse category. If I took the blend of 90 days for Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar and put together a 5 month forecast out of that for Nov-Mar, given what has happened and what I think is going to happen, it would have been a great 5 month forecast. I am confident the plains and even the southeast down to I 20, will share in the winter woe, though its obvious the worse is in the northeast."
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From JB today " I still think the ECWMF will outdo the GFS with this storm, though the GFS is now seeing accumulating snow to the Mason Dixon line ( actually an isolated area. But amounts have increased around NYC for instance and given its performance in the two events, the one the 23rd and 24th and most recently, last Monday, the area east of what is now I-99 and as far south as ACY to DC is still the same to me with snow. As for most of New England, its like shooting fish in a barrel with snow now, though the barrel is frozen and you cant find it anyway cause its covered with snow"
