ChescoWx

Looks like most folks in Western Chesco are still below freezing. Hopefully we warm up by noon as the NWS predicts for the county. As mentioned before it is usually a pretty slow slog in the relatively higher spots in the county like mine over 600 ft ASL -NWS has 41 here for the high...I will bet we stay in the 30's

ZR has begun here in NW Chester County in East Nantmeal temp at 30.5

I strongly suspected you were a troll early on....now we all know it - now go away and crawl back into the crevice from which you came!! Where are the admins to ban him? Thanks!! Paul

Hi Mike, I am so embarrassed that we have someone like LV Historian on this or any site. It was pretty clear early on he is the epitome of a troll. A true professional like you and all of the METS at the Mount Holly and surrounding offices have an incredibly difficult job and no matter what any troll may say is always and I mean always the #1 source of accurate unbiased and unweenified forecasts for this and any area!! Please ignore trolls like LV - I am hopeful the admins here will ban him and let's continue to appreciate the weather insights true professionals like you contribute to this site!! Thanks Mike for all you do!!

The great folks at the NWS Office in Mount Holly seem concerned...understanding of course if no precipitation reaches till later as some models depict...no worries - but best to be safe in these situations. I suspect in higher spots like here in NW Chesco it will be a slow slog to get temps to get much above freezing....of note even if surface temps do warm to slightly above freezing ice accretion will continue when coming off so many hours of below freezing conditions Unlike most warming winter precipitation events in our area, this one will begin from the deep freeze. This means that the impacts of freezing rain will likely be virtually immediate. Hazardous travel may develop very quickly once precipitation begins, which will be important to message for this event. Additionally, did expand the advisory to New Castle County (despite lower confidence on icing this far south), given the potential quick impacts to travel on the I-95 corridor in northern Delaware should freezing rain occur.

This morning's low of 14.9 was my coldest reading in East Nantmeal since the 11.6 back on February 15. 2020...couple colder mornings Tuesday and Wednesday,

My WXSIM software has the below - with a high of only 33.7 here in East Nantmeal - my current P&C has 39 degrees for the high. If I was a betting man I would go lower than 39 here tomorrow

Latest NAM has backed off a bit with impacts mainly to far western areas....we shall see

Western Chesco also....temps never warm as quickly in the higher spots with snow cover

2 m temps - my current P&C has 39....I will take the under!

Suspect we will once again see WWA posted from Mt. Holly for at the very least western portions of the area. With such a small gap for warming (before the arctic front) and with ample snow cover to the southwest (source of low level warming) and snow cover locally...I think any low level warming will be tough sledding (pardon the pun). Latest NAM certainly catching on to this.

Final total in East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County PA was 4.3" of snow

As of 345am in East Nantmeal Twp Snow so far 3.0" (2.5" since 1am) Moderate Snow

As of 1am up to 0.5" in East Nantmeal Twp in NW Chesco with steady but not even moderate snow.

Snow has really picked up here over the last 15 minutes - appears we will not be totally shut out this year....

Still have a shot here in NW Chester County with no measurable yet this season....can we do it??

Some very light pixie dust snow continues to fall here in East Nantmeal with the temp down to 27.8 - just a fine dusting at most so far

Not much virga with this one - flakes are now reaching the ground here in NW Chester County

I should point out that Bernie Rayno thinks the models are missing what he calls "sneaky snow" to the N and W of Philly....we shall see

For those that have missed this the WXSIM with 10:1 and 0.46" of w.e. predicts 2.5" to 4.5" of snow with it's actual snow depth forecast of 4.1" - that said if we actually did get 0.46" of liquid...we will see near 6" of snow here in NW Chesco. Tonight: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 31. Wind north near calm in the evening, becoming 4 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. A chance of snow. High 30. Wind chill around 18. Wind northwest around 8 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch.

While our upcoming snow event will not be a significant snowstorm ..I thought it might be interesting to review the Top 10 January snowstorms in Chester County PA History. Of note 3 of the top 10 have all occurred since 1995 1. 1905 JAN 25 29.0" 2. 1996 JAN 8 28.9" 3. 2016 JAN 23 26.0" 4. 1922 JAN 29 26.0" 5. 1928 JAN 29 20.0" 6. 2011 JAN 27 16.0" 7. 1910 JAN 15 15.0" 8. 1978 JAN 20 15.0" 9. 1966 JAN 30 14.0" 10. 1961 JAN 19 13.0"

I do think the Kutchera totals like the below on the 18z may be a bit more accurate as N and W of the city temps will be in the low to mid-20's so ratios will be higher

Just posted by Mt Holly ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

That is the CTP area - Mt Holly always posts theirs later in the 3pm hour or so...