ChescoWx

Euro with over a foot in some spots of Bucks and Lehigh counties - see above...of course just a model run but close

As we track model snow totals for the season - here is our 1st nice weenie map between now and Christmas Eve.

We are starting a pattern today of seasonably cold temperatures that should last through much of the holiday season. In addition there will be multiple chances of rain and snow every few days during this stretch. The first such chance will be with some snow possibly arriving by Sunday AM changing to rain. More mixed wintry precipitation could arrive Wednesday night. The latest US Model (GFS) hints at a major snowstorm by next weekend....but we don't shovel models! The record high for today is the 71 degrees from 1966 (during the following 3 weeks almost 3 feet of snow would fall including over 20" with lightning on Christmas Eve 1966) The record low for today is 6 degrees from 1989. Record rain is the 1.80" from 2009. Our record snow was the 7.8" that fell today in 2005.

12z trends look to be going north....on to next "event" or rumor of event!

Today looks to be our last above normal temp day for quite a while. Our temperatures looks to average near to below normal for most days between now and Christmas Day. There will also be multiple chances of some wintry weather. The first chance will be some snow mixing in with rain on Sunday into Sunday night and again on Wednesday. Mainly higher spots in the county over 550 ft will have chances to see some minor small accumulations on non-paved surfaces. The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1980. Our record low is 12 degrees from 1959. Daily rain record is the 1.94" from 1978. The daily snow record is 4.7" from 1917.

South trend continues... GFS trend 2022.12.07.mp4

South trend on the EPS continues

Latest Euro shows a touch of snow over spots of Chester County come Friday night into early Saturday morning....not a "plowable" event!

Looking like we might see some wintry changes with the 12z runs this AM.....southwest trends to continue??

We have picked up 1.12" of rain since yesterday morning. With 0.11" since midnight. Some additional showers are possible and continued mild today. The main change to the longer term forecast is a prolonged period of normal to slightly below temperatures for mid to late December with even some wet snow chances toward Saturday morning. Our record high for today is 78 degrees set in 1998. The record low is 1 above zero set in 1926. The daily rain mark is the 2.04" that fell in 1914. Daily snow record is the 8.0" that fell today in 1959.

A stretch of unsettled weather starts today with rain and wet snow chances every day through Saturday. Temps start mild but trend colder by Thursday night when we could see some mixing with snow. We should dry out by Saturday afternoon. The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1998. The record low is 8 degrees above zero from 1902. Record rain is the 1.47" in 2013. Record daily snow is the 6.7" that fell today in 1910.

Always enjoy posts from our own Larry Cosgrove....still remember his days on Channel 17 (especially during the Blizzard of 1996) his thoughts on the upcoming pattern change and impacts "There are two key drivers to the evolving pattern in North America. One is the building and retrogression of a blocking ridge in Greenland, which looks to shift into Nunavut AR in the third week of this month. The ridge displaces the current Arctic cold pool and 500MB vortex, and forces the chill to stream into coverage to the right of the Continental Divide. Another factor favoring a more wintry look to the lower 48 states is the southern branch jet stream. Aided by an energy/moisture input form the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and already nudging into the American Southwest, the subtropical wind field will contain disturbances that will wear down the heat ridge complex straddling the southern Gulf of Mexico. The initial impulse should bring heavy rain and thunderstorms in the near term in a belt close to Interstate 40 (Oklahoma City OK to Wilmington NC). But the second and third storms will be stronger, tap into colder air next week, and may yank the snow line further south into the Ohio Valley and middle/upper Appalachia by December 15. If model projections of the ridge complex near the Arctic Circle verify, we may see another two storms riding the rim of a very cold air mass over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. between December16-25. The CFS platform suggests that this configuration will last until about January 8 2023, then give way to what looks to be a very impressive, ten to fourteen day "January Thaw"."

A frosty start to the day with teens in the lower spots below 450ft. A sunny Monday - but after that a pretty unsettled week ahead. Mild but wet weather through Thursday then chilling down to normal weather for what looks like an extended stretch. By the time we get to the weekend and into next week we may have some chances of some wintry precipitation. The record high for today is 75 degrees from 2001. Our record low is 10 degrees set back in 1926. The daily rain mark is 3.27" from 1993. The daily snow record was the 8.5" that fell today back in 2003.

6z control run still modeling snow but covering more or our region by Saturday AM

Looks like the Euro out on it's own with our first significant model snow event of the season for parts of our area. Of course as we all know we don't shovel model snow...this will likely be gone by the 12z run. Start adding these up for the season....vs true shoveling or plowing!!

After yesterday's balmy temps and rain we are back to below normal temps but sunny skies for both today and tomorrow. We then warm back up to above normal before potentially cooling down and even a model shows some significant snow in Chester County by week's end. That said there is only one model "The European" that shows any such event. No one should take that as a forecast...just a period to keep an eye on. As I mentioned earlier with the change to more consistent colder weather expect to hear of snow or rumor of snows between now and the end of the month. Our record high for today is 71 degrees from 1998. The record low is 6 above zero from 1940. The daily rain record is 1.54" from 1900. The daily snow record is 10.0" from today in 1957.

Rainfall so far is up to 0.28" - rain should end from the west by around noon. Sunny and colder tomorrow before milder again with showers for mid-week before the pattern change to colder looks to take hold by the end of the work week. As that respected meteorologist who shall not be names says....delayed but not denied!! The record high for today is 69 degrees from 1998. Record low is 9 degrees from 1976. Daily rain record is 1.12" from 1905. Daily snow record is the 5.2" that fell today back in 1907.

Our roller coaster ride of temps swings will continue through Wednesday before a prolonged period of below normal cold arrives later this upcoming week. Today will be our 2nd below normal day to start the month of December. Tomorrow may be the warmest day for the rest of the year as temps will climb to the mid-50's with showers for many across the county. Chilly again for Sunday and Monday. The record high for today is 65 degrees from 1962. Our record low is 8 degrees from 1976. The daily rain record is 1.13" from 1986. The daily snow record is the 4.5" that fell way back in 1903.

I would say this is not a warm look for Christmas Week....

We ended November with an average temperature of 47.1 - this is 3.1 degrees above normal. Through the first 13 days of November we were 10.8 degrees above normal so quite the shift for the 2nd half of the month. This was the 16th warmest November since records began back in 1894. So far in 2022 we have had 6 months with above normal temps and 5 months with below normal temps. Looking ahead the last well above normal temperature day looks to be on Saturday...otherwise the well advertised change to colder looks likely through at least mid-December. The record high for today is 70.9 from 2006. The record low is 7 degrees above zero from 1967. Daily rain record is the 1.80" from 1996. Daily snow record is the 0.5" that fell in 1907.

Wow has this changed a bit for the December outlook....

Light rain is already moving in from SW to NE across Chester County this morning. Showers should be on the increase along with winds gusting to possibly as high as 45mph today. Warm temps today with mid-50's likely. Clearing and much colder tonight with lows in the upper 20's. Our roller coaster of temps will continue with warmer temps again Saturday with more shower chances before colder on Sunday. It looks increasingly likely that a major pattern change is under way with pretty consistent below normal temperatures starting by the middle of next week. The record high for today is 72 degrees set back in 1933. Our record low is 9 degrees from 1976. The daily rain record is 2.51" from 2020. Record daily snow was the 6.0" that fell today back in 1967.