ChescoWx

For those hanging on to winter hope - from Larry Cosgrove "Many of you have gotten used to the rather benign nature of January so far. There is the (usual) talk of "winter cancel", and speculation that spring has already begun. This is, of course, rather unwise. Even with the alterations caused by global warming, winter is still here, lurking in Siberia and northern Canada. And when it returns full force to the lower 48 stats around January 20, my best advice is to be prepared. What is happening in California is actually the start of the transition process. One of the storms in the sequence is now reforming in the Oklahoma Panhandle, and will pull down modified Arctic air into the Midwest and East Coast for perhaps two days (with thunderstorms along the East Coast, followed by snow showers and squalls around the Great Lakes and Appalachia). But warmth will quickly rebound next week east of the Rocky Mountains. The last cyclone in the sequence, over the western Pacific Basin, will break up the current pattern. All of the model guidance shows this feature battering California with heavy precipitation (so what else is new....) next Wednesday and Thursday, then redeveloping over southern Colorado. Ten days from now, cold advection into the Great Plains gets going as the low center deepens and heads for the interior Northeast. You will notice changes in the air mass character behind this disturbance, with a shift back to mild/dry West and cold/stormy Central and East for North America."

Another slightly above normal temperature day across the county today before rain arrives overnight tonight. Mild with rain tomorrow with between 0.25" to 0.50" likely across Chesco. Chillier weather this weekend with Saturday looking like possibly our first below normal day of 2023. Temps will start to trend milder again to start next week. The record high for today is 67 degrees from 1975. Record low was 5 below zero in 1981. Record precipitation was the 1.19" from 1924 and our daily snow record was the 7.2" that fell today in 1922.

Some may wonder how often have we gone through a January with no measurable snow during the month? Well here in Chester County PA it has not happened in 50 years....but overall it has occurred 6 times including 3 straight January's from 1932 through 1934. The other years a green January has taken place include 1960, 1967 and 1973. Of note that last time in 1973 took place during the only winter season in Chester County PA history that no snow at all fell during the winter. We will not suffer that fate this year as we have already recorded a whopping 0.8" of snow during December!!

We have not had a below normal temperature day since 12/27. While most days over the next week should be closer to normal we will still run above normal for the foreseeable future. Rain chances increase by Thursday evening and we should reach the 50's by that day. Clearing skies over the weekend with slightly above normal temps continuing. The models did show a potential low moving up the coast on Saturday with some snow possible...but that for now appears to be staying far enough off shore to continue our snow drought. Through yesterday we are at only 9% of normal snowfall through today. Of course in this area it only takes a couple big storms to get us back to normal. I still remain confident we see a couple snowstorms before we are done with the snow season in early April. Snow geese keep the faith! The record high for today is 62 degrees from 1950. Our record low is 3 below zero from 1982. Daily rain record is the 1.06" from 2016. The snow record for today is the 9" that fell today in 1954.

Yep I suspect validation......

As we await the possible return of winter weather at some point later this winter. Below is a list of the Top 25 all-time January Snowstorms here in the Western Suburbs of Philly in Chester County PA

For those that blinked and missed the peak of our overnight 3rd snow event of the season....shot attached!!

The sun should return today. We should stay dry and a few degrees above normal (what's new) for most of the week. Temps will rise well into the 40's with rain by Thursday night into Friday. Temps will fall to near normal for next weekend with dry weather. The record high for today is 68 degrees from 1930. Our record low is 1 below zero from 1970. Daily rain record is the 1.66" from 1964. Daily snow record is the 3.0" from that very cold January of 1977.

Would be surprised if anyone sees even this little...

We are now at 10% of normal snowfall....can we get to 15% of normal snow by tomorrow AM? call me excited!!!

Latest 12z runs for the impending snowstorm....The Euro and NAM Jackpot Chesco while the GFS and GEM go north!!! Buckle up!!!

Increasing clouds today with some models still showing our "largest" snow event of the year starting after midnight tonight and wrapping up by the Monday morning rush. If there really is any accumulation at all it is most likely on grassy and non-paved surfaces above 550ft across the County. Temperatures will for the most part remain above freezing while any snow is falling with maybe the exception of the highest spots in Western Chester County. A mainly dry and slightly above normal temperature week looks likely with a large mainly rain event looking likely by Thursday night with it possibly starting as snow. The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1998. The record low is 5 below zero from 1981. Daily rain mark is the 1.81" from 1978. Our daily snow record was day 2 of the Blizzard of 1996....when a final 6.1" fell bringing our final total to 28.9" of snow with 30" on the ground at storms end.

I have you beat....no freezing temps since 12/29!! Winter in all it's glory!!

Here in Chester County the first 6 days of January were the 2nd warmest start to the year in history. Below is a list of the Top 20 warmest. I have also listed how much snow fell from January through April following those mild starts to the New Year. Normal Chester County snowfall between now and April is 29.7" 6 of the 20 years would end up with above normal snow. 5 more years would be within 5" of normal with 9 ending below normal snowfall. Not sure if it means anything but....I guess I am saying if you love snow - there is hope!

Most of the most recent model runs continue to show our "biggest" snowfall of the season so far from tomorrow night into Monday morning. They appear to be showing the "most" snow of up to 1.5" in the higher spots over 600 ft across Chester, Berks, Montgomery and Bucks counties. The GFS is the outlier with the "jackpot" for our southern friends.

Do you still live in Chesco? If so this is your forum. Welcome!! Paul

We are now into a stretch of near to slightly above normal temps for at least the next week. HIgh temps should average in the low to mid-40's - normal high temps are in the upper 30's and lows in the low to mid-20's. There still is a chance for some spots to pick up some measurable wet snow tomorrow night into Monday morning. Relative elevation will play a role in who sees any actual accumulation on non-paved surfaces. Most models are painting from 0.5" to at most 2.0" across the county. Incredibly for some this may be the largest snowfall so far this winter season. Here in East Nantmeal the most snow from one event has been the 0.5" on 12/23. The record high for today is 70 degrees from 1907. The record low was set just 9 years ago with a 1.6 degree below zero reading. The record precipitation record is the 2.12" of water equivalent in 1996. That is also the record snow for today with the 22.8" that fell during day one of our 5th largest all-time snowstorm here in Chester County. When the storm ended on the 8th we had a 28.9" storm total.

My towering elevation will save the day....0.1" more for me!!!

Yep NAM sniffing out our biggest event of the year.....bring it on!! 0.7" to 2.1" across the area - everybody wins!!

I will try to be Positive Paul with this one.....wish me luck!!

The 3 major 12z ensemble runs all look good for a potential wintry event next weekend...what can go wrong with only 1 week till game time??

12z Euro Ensemble still on board for our biggest snowstorm of the year on Sunday Evening!!!

I would take my chances for north and west of the fall line with that track every time...