ChescoWx

Yep NAM sniffing out our biggest event of the year.....bring it on!! 0.7" to 2.1" across the area - everybody wins!!

I will try to be Positive Paul with this one.....wish me luck!!

The 3 major 12z ensemble runs all look good for a potential wintry event next weekend...what can go wrong with only 1 week till game time??

12z Euro Ensemble still on board for our biggest snowstorm of the year on Sunday Evening!!!

I would take my chances for north and west of the fall line with that track every time...

All about tracks - put a low 50 miles off the delmarva....it snows with 52 degree water temps

What a ridiculous model look at that low position at 0z next Sunday and look what is has at 18z

Latest 12z models...NAM looks like 12 hours slower with onset of precipitation

The latest models for our largest snowstorm so far this winter season....buckle up and get those snowblowers ready!!!

We have picked up 0.15" of rain since yesterday here in East Nantmeal. A few more light showers this morning before sun returns this PM. We should see our first freezing temperature of the year (since December 29th) by tomorrow morning. It has been an incredibly warm start to 2023. Temps should return to near normal this weekend and stay near there for at least the next week to 10 days. Most models still show a chance of some snow arriving on Sunday night and ending by the Monday AM commute. This has the potential to be the largest snow event of the season. Of course our biggest snow event so far has been 0.5" The record high for today is 68.8 degrees set in 2007. The record low is 4 below zero from 1904. Record rain is the 1.30" that fell in 1962. Our record daily snow is the 5.5" that fell today in 1970.

Does anyone know why both KPTW ASOS (offline since November) and KMQS AWOS (offline since last week) are not reporting?

Still even that winter had a great all-time winter event...at least here in Chester County - 9" snowstorm in October and ended up with more than half our annual snowfall at ~19"

Since some folks are worried about having a couple of the least snowy winters in history within the last few years....I thought it a good time to again revisit how incredibly and unusually snowy we have been in this century (since 2000). I wonder if the younger folks that follow the weather will think that our recent snowy cycle is actually typical of this area? As the analysis I have posted here shows we have always experience very variable year to year snow seasons. But as you can see from below and I suspect we are due for some of the least snowy winters on record. Since 2000 we have experience 6 of our top 20 snowiest winters; conversely during that same time frame we have only had 3 of our least snowy winters.

Through yesterday the month is running almost 18 degrees above normal! Today will start the trend back to cooler although we will still be a good 16 degrees above normal for the day. Overall temps for the next couple of weeks look normal to a few degrees above normal for mid January. However, even normal January temps can result in wintry events. While there is a small chance for some snow around Sunday evening....I am not at all enthused about that or any other snow chances over the next week to 10 days...but as we know forecasting is far from an exact science! The record high for today is 62 degrees set in 1950. The record low is 7 degrees below zero from 1904. The record rain is the 1.56" that fell in 1934. The daily snow record is the 3.6" that fell today in 2003.

I can't tell you the last time I watched a TV Met....not much they give you except the latest GFS....

Agreed!! we have never had a climo with long sustained periods of snow and cold...does it rarely happen? sure. This is why looking at decades is key... it evens out the variability seen in individual winters seasons or even multi-year patterns. The overall story is there is nothing changing about our snow climate just typical climate cycles which have been and will continue to see peaks and valleys forever.

It looks like rain will be moving in today from the southwest by this afternoon. Highs should peak in the low 60's today...while very warm not close to our record high of 67 set back in 1950. However, that is 22 degrees above normal. Tomorrow we "cool" to only 14 degrees above normal to the mid-50's. We should be closer to normal with highs around 40 by the weekend. The record high is that 67 set in 1950. Our record low is the 3 below zero set in 1918. The daily rain record is the 1.55" from 1944. Daily snow record is the 4.5" that fell today back in 1905.

I was hearing a lot of the "we feel like it doesn't snow much anymore" from folks on my FB page - so I updated some of the analysis and charts on snowfalls for the Philly burbs of Chester County PA. The data says the last 3 decades including just the 1st 2 seasons of the 2020's have all averaged above average snowfall. (see graph below showing the average snowfall by decade since the 1890's. Or what about we don't get any large snowstorms anymore? So how about a breakdown of significant (6"+) large (10"+) Major (15"+) and historic (20"+) snowstorms by decade And finally the thought that we don't get any big snow seasons anymore? Well below are the top 20 Snow Seasons - 3 of the Top 10 and 6 of the Top 20 snowiest winters have all happened since the year 2000

GFS is 2 small events (Saturday and Monday) - others Sunday night into Monday

A very mild but somewhat wet week on tap across Chester County PA. Temps will run well above normal with temperatures not falling back below freezing until Friday night into Saturday AM. We should get back to near normal January temps by the weekend. Rain should move in this morning and end later this PM. Another round of rain arrives by tomorrow PM and should end by Friday AM. The record high for today is 63 degrees from 1997. Our record low is 1 below zero set in 1918. Daily rain record is 2.07" from 1936. Snow record for the day is the 2.7" from 1989.

So this is the 23rd time in 129 years of recorded Chester County history that we have received less than 1" of snow through December. In only 3 of those 23 instances have we ended up with above normal snowfall for the remainder of the snow season. So the odds of above normal snowfall looks low. However, as we know our 3 snowiest months on average still lie ahead of us. So don't put away those snow blowers just yet...

Our mild weather will continue through Thursday before a turn to more typical January temperatures by Friday. With the mild temps will come rain chances starting later tonight till Thursday morning and then again Thursday night into Friday. The record high for today is 62 set in 2000. The record low is 7 below zero from 1899. The daily rain record is 2.09" from 1948. Record daily snow is the 9" that fell today in 1925.

East Nantmeal Township – Chester County PA (129 years of weather records) 2022 Climate Summary 2022 was the coolest year since 2014 and marks the 2nd consecutive year with average temperatures declining at both East Nantmeal and Glenmoore in Chester County PA. While East Nantmeal finished with just slightly above (+0.2) average temperatures, Glenmoore finished at 0.2 degrees below normal. Average High Temperature: 61.0 degrees (- 0.6 below normal) Average Low Temperature: 44.2 degrees (+1.0 above normal) Average Temperature:52.6 degrees (+0.2 above normal) Highest Temperature: 89.7 on July 23rd Lowest Temperature: 2.8 on the December 24th Total Precipitation: 52.42” (+2.24” above normal) Total Snowfall: 21.3” (14.5” below normal) 90-degree days: (1) which is 10 days below normal Growing Season (Freeze Free days): 182 days (11 days less than normal) Climate Notes: · 2022 was the 52nd warmest year on record the top 5 warmest being: 1) 1913 - 55.7 degrees 2) 1900 - 55.0 degrees 3) 1921 - 54.9 degrees 4) 1931 - 54.8 degrees 5) 2020 - 54.7 degrees 2022 was the 27th wettest year on record – the top 5 being:: 1) 2018 – 79.21” 2) 1996 – 75.12” 3) 2003 – 68.85” 4) 1979 – 66.88” 5) 1975 – 60.51” 2022 was the 36th least snowy year on record – the top 5 snowiest being: 1) 1899 (82.1”) 2) 1907 (75.7”) 3) 2014 (75.3”) 4) 2010 (72.4”) 5) 1996 (68.3”)