ChescoWx

The big warmup is underway as temps have risen from a midnight low of 21.0 to already above freezing across all of Chester County. The mild and mostly dry weather will continue till our next rain chance on Thursday. A couple models have enough cold air getting involved by overnight Friday into Saturday AM to deliver some snow....but as we have seen this winter - I would not get the snow blowers gassed up just yet! Of note 9 years ago today (see below) in 2014 we were in the midst of a crippling ice storm sandwiched between 2 snowstorms. We received 10.3" of snow on February 3rd followed by an ice storm that began overnight on the 5th temps fell into the 20's and would remain below freezing for 9 straight days with another snowstorm on the 13th and 14th delivering an additional 20" of snow to Chester County. On the morning of the 15th we had 26" of snow and ice on the ground and finished the month with 39.4" of snow. However, that 39.4" was well below our record snows for the month of February having been exceeded just 4 years earlier with the 62.8" of snow that fell in February 2010 and the all-time greatest monthly snow totals being the 69.8" that fell in February 1899. Of interest there was also snow continuously on the ground during the winter of 2014 for 50 straight days from January 21st through March 11th.

Yep this makes a lot of sense....

So let's help the cycle deniers out and actually look at the comparison to Philadelphia long term data to a rural non UHI impacted data site like the Western Burbs of Philadelphia in Chester County PA....that trend in Philly is clearly accelerating out of control while back in the burbs....are temps rising at all???? Yet people continue to use PHL as their proof of warming....interesting... Also note how the decade of the 1930's was actually exactly the same temperature in Philadelphia as the 2000's - not much warming in those 70 years - is that why they don't look back further in history??

As always climate alarmists/cycle deniers like above only show data since 1970. However, if we review and analyze the actual readings going back to the 1890's...we clearly do not support any significant warming at all!!. As we can easily see in analyzing the actual un-adjusted long term data for the 1st ~90 years of data (1894-1982) vs. the last ~40 years of data (1983-2022) - of course no such moves to a climate in Coatesville/Chester County like Philadelphia with only a 0.3 degree increase in the last 40 years vs the previous 90 years. In fact of course 6 months are trending warmer and 6 months have trended cooler!! Why do the cycle deniers fail to look at older data to see the true cycle and only cherry pick since 1970? My local ABC news outlet in Philly does the same trick..

A chilly morning with our 3rd single digit low of this mild winter season with a low of 9.8 above zero. Today was the 3rd coldest temperature of the winter season and the coldest temperature since the 2.8 degrees above zero temperature on Christmas Eve morning. We should rebound today into the mid 20's with the warmup fully underway tomorrow. We should see upper 40's for high temps for most of the rest of the week with even low 50's possible by Wednesday though Friday. Our next rain chances look to be by Thursday. The record high for today is 63 degrees from 1991. The record low is 1 below zero set way back in 1898. The daily precipitation record is the 1.35" that fell in 1920. The daily snow record is the 9.1" that fell as part of a 2 day snowstorm in 1995 that resulted in 10.5" of snow. That one storm accounted for all but 3.0" of snow that would fall that entire winter season. That season was sandwiched between the epic ice and snow winter of 1993-94 when we received 45.7" of snow on top of a lot of ice and the snowy winter of 1995-96 when we received 81.9" of snow. At the time that was the 2nd snowiest winter in Chester County history behind only the 95.0" that fell in the winter of 1898-99 . However we would blow past that mark with the 86.7" of snow that fell in 2009-10 and surpass the 80" inch snow total again in 2013-14 with exactly 80.0" of snow recorded in that winter.

A chilly morning with our 3rd single digit low of this mild winter season with a low of 9.8 above zero. Today was the 3rd coldest temperature of the winter season and the coldest temperature since the 2.8 degrees above zero temperature on Christmas Eve morning. We should rebound today into the mid 20's with the warmup fully underway tomorrow. We should see upper 40's for high temps for most of the rest of the week with even low 50's possible by Wednesday though Friday. Our next rain chances look to be by Thursday. The record high for today is 63 degrees from 1991. The record low is 1 below zero set way back in 1898. The daily precipitation record is the 1.35" that fell in 1920. The daily snow record is the 9.1" that fell as part of a 2 day snowstorm in 1995 that resulted in 10.5" of snow. That one storm accounted for all but 3.0" of snow that would fall that entire winter season. That season was sandwiched between the epic ice and snow winter of 1993-94 when we received 45.7" of snow on top of a lot of ice and the snowy winter of 1995-96 when we received 81.9" of snow. At the time that was the 2nd snowiest winter in Chester County history behind only the 95.0" that fell in the winter of 1898-99 . However we would blow past that mark with the 86.7" of snow that fell in 2009-10 and surpass the 80" inch snow total again in 2013-14 with exactly 80.0" of snow recorded in that winter.

Thanks Cape - Agreed!! LOL!! Facts always get in the way of models and feelings!!!

Sure you don't think the earth will balance this out like it always has before since the dawning of the planet??

It is all part of the balancing that our planet does....it will ebb and wane - increase and decrease just like it always has and always will. Certainly this is nothing to worry about! However, thanks to the almost religious zeal of climate alarmists...kids today actually rank climate change as one of their biggest fears!! They have even been scared enough by these dire predictions that they are now worried about having children because the world may not be here in 50 years. What lunacy!!!

HI Wkd - no they have not we have had some very wet years but nothing out of the ordinary across my 129 years of local suburban Philly climate data. As always the perception is it rains more....just like I have folks who tell me on my FB weather page that it used to snow more when they were kids....then I share the facts that no it actually snowed more the last 2 decades then it did when they were kids....and they are stunned!

North Carolina huh? I suspect that "predicted event" will go the same way as all of the other climate predictions....nowhere fast!! LOL!!

Not at all....climate cycles take time and not one year or two....here in Chester County we have experience multiple cooler decades and now multiple warmer decades - so let's review at the end of the next decade and see how it looks.

Not really that difficult - it's the simple cyclical nature of our climate....we warm - we cool - we warm - we cool... rinse and repeat. The actual data is clear climate change is real and the cycles are constant it both warms and cools.

I went back and did an analysis on 1" plus rainfall events from 1894 through 2022 Overall we average 12.6 such events per year From 1894 to 1959 we averaged 11.8 such events per year From 1960 to 2022 we average 13.1 events per year so on average we are seeing 1.3 more 1" rain events on an annual basis....so I guess we think climate change is giving us 1 additional 1" rain event per year is troublesome?? catastrophe?

Let's do it!! although I suspect we see a couple more warm years in 2023 and 2024 before a steady state to decline in temps starts to take place later in this decade of the 2020's and of course cooler decade in the 2030's - but yes let's track it over the next 17 years and see where we stand when we get to December 31, 2039 - looking forward to reviewing the actual data at that time!!

Right...."properly analyzed" is your code for post observation adjustments that help address that pesky warming cycle that throws the monkey wrench in any analysis of actual data that purports to show a never ending warming pattern

We had a few snow showers this morning with the passage of the arctic cold front. Temperatures have fallen off from 32.7 at just before 5am to now 24.3 at 8am. Temps should steady off but not rise much this morning before falling again by mid-afternoon. We should see reading in the teens by 4pm and fall to around 8 degrees by tomorrow morning. It will be windy today with wind chills near to below zero through tonight. Tomorrow will be cold but much less wind. A warm up to again back above normal begins Sunday and we stay above normal for the rest of next week. Our next chance of rain will not be till next Thursday. The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1991. Our record low was way back in 1895 at 4 below zero. Daily precipitation record is the 1.63" that fell today in 2014. Daily snow record is the 11.0" that fell in 1961 as part of a 2 day storm that ended on the 4th with 13.2" of snow falling.

We had a few snow showers this morning with the passage of the arctic cold front. Temperatures have fallen off from 32.7 at just before 5am to now 24.3 at 8am. Temps should steady off but not rise much this morning before falling again by mid-afternoon. We should see reading in the teens by 4pm and fall to around 8 degrees by tomorrow morning. It will be windy today with wind chills near to below zero through tonight. Tomorrow will be cold but much less wind. A warm up to again back above normal begins Sunday and we stay above normal for the rest of next week. Our next chance of rain will not be till next Thursday. The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1991. Our record low was way back in 1895 at 4 below zero. Daily precipitation record is the 1.63" that fell today in 2014. Daily snow record is the 11.0" that fell in 1961 as part of a 2 day storm that ended on the 4th with 13.2" of snow falling.

And of course when we go back a bit further back to better understand the you know....actual cyclical pattern - a heck of a way to run a warmup during the 1st 7 decades of the 20th century - quite the cycle of cooling at most rural sites in Chester County PA before the current cycle of warming

I do indeed believe we are heading back to a few cooler decades in a row likely starting this decade....it just makes cyclical sense. A warm month of January and even a February will do nothing to disprove my cooling cycle prediction....

LOL belly up??? Sorry Charlie my forecast was actually indeed spot on as we did finish with our 3rd below normal December in the last 12 years as I predicted! Again just the facts!! Not surprising, as climate alarmists have a horrible track record of identifying actual events that have impacted the actual weather. So tell me again which weather calamity has befallen us due to this warming???

So what climate disasters can we attribute so far to this AGW during the last 50+ years of our current warming cycle??

Has any doom and gloom climate disaster prediction ever validated?? All we are shown are models....where is the verification? Disasters only please!! Please list the ones that have actually occurred. I have so many failed predictions can we please find some real climate disaster facts to offset all of the failed predictions like below? Thanks!

Yesterday was only our 2nd below normal day of the year. We only experienced 1 below normal day in January that being on January 14. Well for a contrast it looks like we will start the 1st 4 days of February with well below normal temps until we get back to near and then above normal by Sunday. The coldest day looks to be Saturday with a low around 10 degrees and a high in the mid 20's. A dry period is on tap with no precipitation in the forecast till later next week at the earliest. The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1967. Our record low is 6 below zero from 1918. Record melted precipitation is 1.69" from 1897 and the record daily snow is the 8.5" that fell in 1897.

Yesterday was only our 2nd below normal day of the year. We only experienced 1 below normal day in January that being on January 14. Well for a contrast it looks like we will start the 1st 4 days of February with well below normal temps until we get back to near and then above normal by Sunday. The coldest day looks to be Saturday with a low around 10 degrees and a high in the mid 20's. A dry period is on tap with no precipitation in the forecast till later next week at the earliest. The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1967. Our record low is 6 below zero from 1918. Record melted precipitation is 1.69" from 1897 and the record daily snow is the 8.5" that fell in 1897.