ChescoWx

A bit foggy this AM but it should burn away later and yield a nice mild afternoon. Clouds will be increasing later today with rain arriving by tomorrow morning. Windy and rainy through tomorrow night....all models still show the rain mixing with and changing to some wet snow by Monday morning. Of note the NWS does not have snow in the forecast at this time. However, If it does occur it will be a wet snow with temps never falling below freezing....this does not mean snow cannot accumulate especially in the higher elevations of the county on non-paved surfaces etc. Records for today: 71 (1966) / Low 6 (1989) / Rain 1.80" (2009) / Snow 7.8" (2005)

A bit foggy this AM but it should burn away later and yield a nice mild afternoon. Clouds will be increasing later today with rain arriving by tomorrow morning. Windy and rainy through tomorrow night....all models still show the rain mixing with and changing to some wet snow by Monday morning. Of note the NWS does not have snow in the forecast at this time. However, If it does occur it will be a wet snow with temps never falling below freezing....this does not mean snow cannot accumulate especially in the higher elevations of the county on non-paved surfaces etc. Records for today: 71 (1966) / Low 6 (1989) / Rain 1.80" (2009) / Snow 7.8" (2005)

Rain to snow almost always works out in this area.....right??

Rain to snow Sunday night on a couple models out here in ChescoLand....this rarely works out

A nice couple of days before a nice rainstorm moves in on Sunday. We should see above normal temperatures through the weekend (normal highs are in the low 40's) in fact by Sunday we could see many spots in the 60's. As warm as that is it is still nowhere near a record high. The record high for Sunday is the 70 degree reading from 1946. We turn seasonably colder for the rest of the upcoming week. Records for today: High 70 (1980) (RIP John Lennon) / Low 12 (1959) / Rain 1.94" (1978) / Snow 4.7" (1917)

A nice couple of days before a nice rainstorm moves in on Sunday. We should see above normal temperatures through the weekend (normal highs are in the low 40's) in fact by Sunday we could see many spots in the 60's. As warm as that is it is still nowhere near a record high. The record high for Sunday is the 70 degree reading from 1946. We turn seasonably colder for the rest of the upcoming week. Records for today: High 70 (1980) (RIP John Lennon) / Low 12 (1959) / Rain 1.94" (1978) / Snow 4.7" (1917)

0.5" of snow so far here in East Nantmeal. This is our "largest" snow event since the 0.8" of snow that fell last January 25th. We now have 0.8" of snow so far this season. This is already ~30% of our total snowfall last season (2.7")

0.5" of snow so far here in East Nantmeal. This is our "largest" snow event since the 0.8" of snow that fell last January 25th. We now have 0.8" of snow so far this season. This is already ~30% of our total snowfall last season (2.7")

Snow is starting to move into the County from the NW this morning. With the temperatures below freezing we could see some slick spots on area roads - be careful. Most spots will see at most about a half an inch of snow. We start a nice warmup tomorrow through the weekend...it should be dry tomorrow and Saturday before rain moves in on Sunday. Much colder again for next week. Records for today: High 75 (1998) / Low 1 (1926) / Rain 2.04" (1914) / Snow 8.0" (1959)

Snow is starting to move into the County from the NW this morning. With the temperatures below freezing we could see some slick spots on area roads - be careful. Most spots will see at most about a half an inch of snow. We start a nice warmup tomorrow through the weekend...it should be dry tomorrow and Saturday before rain moves in on Sunday. Much colder again for next week. Records for today: High 75 (1998) / Low 1 (1926) / Rain 2.04" (1914) / Snow 8.0" (1959)

That well respected Met JB says it will be rocking......

Non paved surfaces were briefly covered in the earlier heavier snow shower temp down to 34.3 following earlier 36.7

Things whitened up briefly during the earlier heavier snow shower - temp down to 34.3 following earlier 36.7

A few snow flurries are flying this AM across spots of the county. Mostly cloudy the rest of today with maybe some more snow showers tomorrow AM. Temperatures both today and Thursday will struggle to escape the 30's. We start warming by Friday with above normal temps through the weekend with rain likely by Sunday before a return to colder again by next week. Records for today: High 73 (1998) / Low 8 (1902) / Rain 1.47" (2013) / Snow 6.7" (1910)

A few snow flurries are flying this AM across spots of the county. Mostly cloudy the rest of today with maybe some more snow showers tomorrow AM. Temperatures both today and Thursday will struggle to escape the 30's. We start warming by Friday with above normal temps through the weekend with rain likely by Sunday before a return to colder again by next week. Records for today: High 73 (1998) / Low 8 (1902) / Rain 1.47" (2013) / Snow 6.7" (1910)

Below normal temps through Thursday before a nice warming trend over the weekend with rain again by Sunday before colder again next week. Records for today 75 (2001) / Low 10 (1926) / 3.27" (1993) / Snow 8.5" (2003)

Below normal temps through Thursday before a nice warming trend over the weekend with rain again by Sunday before colder again next week. Records for today 75 (2001) / Low 10 (1926) / 3.27" (1993) / Snow 8.5" (2003)

A pretty typical early December week with temperatures below normal early week to above normal by next weekend. The next chance of rain will not be till Sunday. Records for today: High 71 (1998) / Low 6 (1940) / Rain 1.54" (1900) / Snow 10.0" (1957)

A pretty typical early December week with temperatures below normal early week to above normal by next weekend. The next chance of rain will not be till Sunday. Records for today: High 71 (1998) / Low 6 (1940) / Rain 1.54" (1900) / Snow 10.0" (1957)

Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year. Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago? So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy!

Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year. Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago? So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy!