ChescoWx

CSNavy waiting as usual for any actual non NOAA adjusted long term weather data verification ...more than since 1970 to support with any scientific rigor any such warming claims.

We have started out mild today but look for temps to start falling later this afternoon as we should have some close to normal temps for the weekend. We may see some rain arriving on Sunday which may start as some wet snow across the higher ridges of Western Chester and Berks Counties before quickly turning to a cold rain. We turn much milder again by Monday. Go Birds!! Records for today: High 62 (1960) / Low 13 below zero (1899) / Precipitation and Snow 2.28" and 22.8" of snow this was the 2nd day of the 6th largest snowstorm in Chester County history with a total fall of 26.8"

Another annual shatty winter forecast from me!! I did at least get the below normal temps for December....otherwise an utter failure of a forecast from start to finish!! I will bring this up again next year with my next fearless winter outlook for 2023-24!!!

Above normal temps will continue through Friday then near normal for the weekend with increasing rain chances that could start as some wet snow across higher elevations of Chester County on Sunday. Milder again next wee. Today's Climate Records: High 61 (1990)/ Low 14 below zero (1934)/ Precip 1.86"(1906) and Snow (6.0") 1936

Above normal temps will continue through Friday then near normal for the weekend with increasing rain chances that could start as some wet snow across higher elevations of Chester County on Sunday. Milder again next wee. Today's Climate Records: High 61 (1990)/ Low 14 below zero (1934)/ Precip 1.86"(1906) and Snow (6.0") 1936

The EURO delivers the largest snow event of the season for the burbs!!

I am pretty sure you are joking about climate change....as it of course has no impact on any individual weather event or storm this season....

I provided a detailed explanation of the multiple steps we have taken to validate the statistical accuracy of the data (see above) that means the data has been proven to be acceptable and not contaminated. If it was contaminated obviously the statistical significance (p-value) would not be there and my data would not stand up to the scientifically proven rigor that we accomplished with our data testing and analysis. Hope that helps!

NASA satellite for January 2023 shows we were colder this month than 36 years ago way back in January 1987... This occurred despite a doubling of man made CO2 in the atmosphere. The global warming hypothesis is that every CO2 emission warms the planet. Cooling phase starting early??

Our overnight low was a warm 35.7 (normal is 22.1). Our mild weather continues through Friday with closer to seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Our best rain chance looks to be tomorrow afternoon into the evening but not a wash out. Records for today: High (64) 1965 / Low (4) 1895 / Precipitation (1.00") 1895 / Snow (10.0") 1895. Of note today in 1895 was the 2nd day of a 2-day snowstorm that began at 8am on the 7th and ended at 5am on the 8th with very cold temps being reported as the thermometer remain below 8 degrees fro the entire storm.

Our overnight low was a warm 35.7 (normal is 22.1). Our mild weather continues through Friday with closer to seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Our best rain chance looks to be tomorrow afternoon into the evening but not a wash out. Records for today: High (64) 1965 / Low (4) 1895 / Precipitation (1.00") 1895 / Snow (10.0") 1895. Of note today in 1895 was the 2nd day of a 2-day snowstorm that began at 8am on the 7th and ended at 5am on the 8th with very cold temps being reported as the thermometer remain below 8 degrees fro the entire storm.

The GFS snow for the weekend is only a few hundred miles further south down in North Carolina now....

Some doom and gloom climate predictions that did not age well... https://nypost.com/2021/11/12/50-years-of-predictions-that-the-climate-apocalypse-is-nigh/ https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions/ https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/18-spectacularly-wrong-predictions-were-made-around-the-time-of-the-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year/ https://norfolkdailynews.com/commentary/despite-so-many-failed-predictions-new-ones-of-climate-change-continue/article_cf325ee0-18b2-11ed-9f35-6b10c95d64ed.html https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/doomsday-predictions-rely-on-flawed-climate-models https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/50-years-of-failed-doomsday-eco-pocalyptic-predictions-the-so-called-experts-are-0-50/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/?sh=51a2486b12d6 https://www.foxnews.com/us/top-5-most-outrageous-2020-doomsday-predictions https://heartland.org/opinion/being-a-climate-alarmist-means-never-having-to-admit-youre-wrong/ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/al-gore-history-climate-predictions-statements-proven-false

Hello all, I thought I would start a forum that provides climate data and research that illustrates the cyclical nature of our always changing climate. It will also present examples of failed climate alarmist predictions. If you are a climate alarmist or a climate cycle denier who gets angry with dissenting views you may want to steer clear of this forum. To start us off let's start with a peer reviewed article on this very topic of the cyclical, natural change in our climate. I hope you all enjoy the forum!! https://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/01/10/global-warming-no-natural-predictable-climate-change/?sh=78b0b3bf73ad

A mild week continues for Chester County with a chance of some showers overnight tonight. Temps should warm into the 50's Wednesday through Friday. There is a chance we could see some freezing rain across some of the far northern areas of Chesco into Berks and Lehigh counties if the rain arrives before rush hour. Colder air will follow for the weekend and we will track a developing coastal storm that could track close enough to give us snow later Sunday toward evening. Only the GFS American model currently shows significant snow with that model printing out over a foot of snow across Chester County. That said based on our seasonal trends this winter I suspect it will likely track off the coast to our south. Records for today: High 61.3 (2008) / Low 2 below zero (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Record Snow 14.8" (1951)

A mild week continues for Chester County with a chance of some showers overnight tonight. Temps should warm into the 50's Wednesday through Friday. There is a chance we could see some freezing rain across some of the far northern areas of Chesco into Berks and Lehigh counties if the rain arrives before rush hour. Colder air will follow for the weekend and we will track a developing coastal storm that could track close enough to give us snow later Sunday toward evening. Only the GFS American model currently shows significant snow with that model printing out over a foot of snow across Chester County. That said based on our seasonal trends this winter I suspect it will likely track off the coast to our south. Records for today: High 61.3 (2008) / Low 2 below zero (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Record Snow 14.8" (1951)

Get the plows fired up - big snowstorm incoming....imagine if we actually had to shovel all of this model snow this year!!

This was the source data that was used for the prediction show. That 1.8 meter prediction is not tracking well...LOL!! .https://books.google.com/books?id=c1Hls8bvKT8C&pg=PA39&dq=extrapolate the sea-level rise to the year 2000&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiP4MffhJ_dAhUFEqwKHYOhDE8Q6AEIJzAA#v=onepage&q&f=false

Maybe If we could find any climate doomsday event(s) pushed by climate alarmists that actually has taken place and is attributable to climate change....like the above evaporating oceans or even rising oceans like the doomsday predictions of flooded Atlantic City casinos predicted by cycle deniers 30 years ago that have never come to pass. If there was actual real world events that we can point to maybe folks would accept it better?

Our mild weather continues most of this week before we cool down to near normal by the weekend. Rain looks likely by Thursday morning with another chance on Friday night into Saturday. The record high for today is 65.8 set in 2008. The record low is 6 below zero from 1895. Daily precipitation mark is the 3.00" that fell way back in 1896. Our daily snow record is the 12.3" that fell today back in 2010.

Our mild weather continues most of this week before we cool down to near normal by the weekend. Rain looks likely by Thursday morning with another chance on Friday night into Saturday. The record high for today is 65.8 set in 2008. The record low is 6 below zero from 1895. Daily precipitation mark is the 3.00" that fell way back in 1896. Our daily snow record is the 12.3" that fell today back in 2010.

It's gonna rain like a hose on a flat rock! He had a million of these!! He was the main reason I got interested in weather as a little kid

Hi CSNavyWx I am simply showing actual data - with supporting documentation and references. I unlike some I have met on the other side of this debate... can have calm rational discussions on the data without anger. I have no expectation of changing your views - that is your right. See answers below. Doesn't matter what ya throw at him. It won't work. The only thing that matters is this when engaging in this sort of discussion: What would it take to invalidate your position? Actual climate data with a longer period or record than only since 1970. Data and analytics should include at the very least data from the 1890's without post observation adjustments for the 1930's-1950's A forecast model that has been proven to accurately predict 2m temperatures for decades ahead of today. The fact our models today still struggle with 2m temps for even 1 month ahead call this into question. One can't test a model prediction until we have future data to validate the forecast, Unfortunately this makes it unfalsifiable and clearly outside of the scientific method. So we should really pay little attention to data derived from climate models. That said - Irrespective of any modeling if 50 years from now we are reviewing actual real un-adjusted data and every single decade has continued to warm - I will be on board with this non-stop warming hypothesis that has not yet been proven as we stand here today in 2023. The non-stop warming hypothesis is of course not the famed "settled science" we too often hear as a response to debate. If he can't state it clearly at this point -- block and move on. This is a very sad statement and sentiment but so very common today in our society that simply shuts down and does not wish to debate any topic. This is why we now have "safe spaces" in our colleges and universities - let's just shut off and cancel or block any dissenting opinions - so sad to see!! Tired of the years of coddling this shit on this board. It's tiring.

Welp for the who knows how many times.... let's try to explain this again with some actual facts and real world scientifically rigorous data. First off the data I show if you just look back a couple posts include all multiple available Chester County sites not just one site! When I do show the one site I have appropriately referenced the sources. Regarding the sources of the one station Charlie mentions above. We will reiterate the detailed scientific methods and analysis that took place to validate this numerical data being used. The data set comprises only the National Weather Service COOP observations from 1888 to 1982 for Coatesville 1SW when that station moved per NWS direction to a nearby location in Coatesville beginning in 1983. That location was only 2 miles to the NW at an additional 300 ft elevation change - that station remained in use till 12/31/07. The data of both of those stations was deemed acceptable (In to whatever analysis done by the PA Climate Office I also performed a null-hypothesis significance test which validated with a highly statistical p-value) and combined by the Pennsylvania State Climate Office and is posted on their website with climatology stats using the combined 2 stations. So now we have data from 1888 through 2007 that is included in this data set. However, the Coatesville NWS observer stopped reporting in December 2007. Without that data I was required to do a statistical analysis to determine if the daily data that had been recorded at both the Coatesville NWS observer station and my NWS spotter data in East Nantmeal for Chester County (at the same elevation ~660 ft ASL) which were taken concurrently daily from 12/1/2003 through 12/31/2007 would be found statistically the same - this is critical because if this statistical significance test had failed we would not have been able to use this data for the ongoing analysis we perform. Remember the null hypothesis we had to put forth is that the data at the 2 stations is NOT the same - However, based on the detailed statistical analysis performed we were able to reject that null hypothesis and therefore we have proven with data certainty that the data from both stations are found to be statistically one and the same based on the highly significant ( p-value results were well under 0.05 required) and we are then allowed to combine this data as scientifically one and the same. This detailed statistical analysis provided the support that allows us to have high confidence that the total data set being used is valid and appropriate for analysis. Hope this helps!! Paul

No see above coop station references -continual data from 1894 thru Present using Coatesville 1SW / Coatesville 2W and NWS spotter data