ChescoWx

Why the insults again...thanks for allowing me to figure out the impacts of ocean warming and related energy!! LOL!!!!! Of course Charlie no prediction or forecast is "laughable" until we have verification....let's chat in the late 2030's and 2040's.....

LOL! actually make those thermometers/stations plural so thermometers in Chester County PA!!!

Thanks dseagull! great to have some diversity of thought and opinions on this topic!!

Could see a shower this AM with a warm front with sun returning this PM with temps warming to the low 60's in many spots. Rain by tomorrow afternoon and then sharply but briefly colder by Friday afternoon into Saturday. Records for today: High 75 (1949) / Low 11 below zero (1899) / Precipitation 1.61" (1987) / Snow 13.0" (1958)

Could see a shower this AM with a warm front with sun returning this PM with temps warming to the low 60's in many spots. Rain by tomorrow afternoon and then sharply but briefly colder by Friday afternoon into Saturday. Records for today: High 75 (1949) / Low 11 below zero (1899) / Precipitation 1.61" (1987) / Snow 13.0" (1958)

Ocean of course cools and warms at a much different pace than land....I only address land temps for Chester County PA....

Below is March average temps since 1894 through last year. Cyclical of course but overall flat to a slight decline

I will look at March individually across only Chester County but for the March - April - May spring months overall as usual any actual temperature changes appear cyclical. With overall Phoenixville warmer - West Chester flat and Coatesville trending cooler

At least for the area analyzed below - based on the clear cycles of warm - cold illustrated below I would expect we see the trend downward starting later this decade....

Another well above normal day today with temps in the low 50's. Our normal high today is just shy of 40 degrees. Of note today is the last day in the winter with average high temperatures of less than 40 degrees. The next time average high temperatures are in the 30's will be December 19th. Tomorrow we will approach near 60 but with increasing clouds. Rain looks to arrive on Thursday into early Friday. Will will turn briefly chillier again on Friday PM into Saturday before warming up again by Sunday. Our records for today: High 63 degrees (1949) / Low 4 below zero (1979) / Precipitation 1.25" (2007) / Snow 10.0" (1899)

Another well above normal day today with temps in the low 50's. Our normal high today is just shy of 40 degrees. Of note today is the last day in the winter with average high temperatures of less than 40 degrees. The next time average high temperatures are in the 30's will be December 19th. Tomorrow we will approach near 60 but with increasing clouds. Rain looks to arrive on Thursday into early Friday. Will will turn briefly chillier again on Friday PM into Saturday before warming up again by Sunday. Our records for today: High 63 degrees (1949) / Low 4 below zero (1979) / Precipitation 1.25" (2007) / Snow 10.0" (1899)

We picked up a needed .07" of rain yesterday. Beautiful late winter day across the County today. Temps today in the 50's and we might hit 60 degrees on Wednesday. Looks like rain again by Thursday. The record high for today is 65 degrees from 1951. Record low was the 5 below zero from 1979. The daily precipitation and snow record are both from today's date in 1899. In the midst of the greatest snowstorm in Chester County history with 35.3" of snow falling on the 13th alone and an incredible storm total of 53.0" by the time the storm wrapped up on Valentines Day.

We picked up a needed .07" of rain yesterday. Beautiful late winter day across the County today. Temps today in the 50's and we might hit 60 degrees on Wednesday. Looks like rain again by Thursday. The record high for today is 65 degrees from 1951. Record low was the 5 below zero from 1979. The daily precipitation and snow record are both from today's date in 1899. In the midst of the greatest snowstorm in Chester County history with 35.3" of snow falling on the 13th alone and an incredible storm total of 53.0" by the time the storm wrapped up on Valentines Day.

We have now exceeded 120" of accumulated GFS Snow model snow this year for Chester County....only problem is no winter event this season has even hit the 1 mark.....

Hi Charlie....the supporting information is the raw data above - it is right there on the page - I even posted the ranking that clearly show the 1930's and 1940's are the warmest decades. Now of course I understand with the "bias adjustment" applied to the data it supports the warming much better....but we like our weather like our onions....raw!! Go Birds!!!

That well respected MET JB says for the Period March 1 through April 15 - PHL is 5 degrees below normal with 15" of snow.....this will not age well

Cloudy and chilly today with the best chance of rain across SE Chester County with less chances the further NW you travel across the county. Temperatures then warm up through Friday with highs possibly touching 60 degrees by Thursday. That day is also the best chance of rain after today. Much cooler again by Friday night into next weekend. Records for today: High 68 degrees (1999) / Low 1 below zero (1979) / Precipitation 1.46" (1985)/ Snow 12.8" (2006) - GO BIRDS!!!

Cloudy and chilly today with the best chance of rain across SE Chester County with less chances the further NW you travel across the county. Temperatures then warm up through Friday with highs possibly touching 60 degrees by Thursday. That day is also the best chance of rain after today. Much cooler again by Friday night into next weekend. Records for today: High 68 degrees (1999) / Low 1 below zero (1979) / Precipitation 1.46" (1985)/ Snow 12.8" (2006) - GO BIRDS!!!

Of course Tip...but the actual unadjusted data should follow suit...there should be consistent data without adjustment for the 1930's and 1940's that support this supposition....correct?? How can we find entire counties in the USA that do not follow the same warming we should expect to see?

But of course the unadjusted data for all of the available Chester County sites does not show the above trend lines.....

All available un-adjusted raw National Weather Service COOP stations blended averages below clearly show the cyclical nature of the climate in Chester County PA. The overall warmest decades remain the 1930's and 1940's. We actually had the 2000's finish cooler than the 1990's and the 2010's warmed but still not quite to the warmth we observed in the 1990's. Note in the chart below I list all individual stations with a blue temperature indicating cooler temps vs the prior decade - red being warmer and black the same as the prior decade.

All available un-adjusted raw National Weather Service COOP stations blended averages below clearly show the cyclical nature of the climate in Chester County PA. The overall warmest decades remain the 1930's and 1940's. We actually had the 2000's finish cooler than the 1990's and the 2010's warmed but still not quite to the warmth we observed in the 1990's. Note in the chart below I list all individual stations with a blue temperature indicating cooler temps vs the prior decade - red being warmer and black the same as the prior decade.

More warming in the non-adjusted data huh? Not among these stations in Chester County PA

Sunny with slightly above normal temps for today with a high near 43. Rain chances increase tomorrow and chilly with temps likely staying in the 30's in the Western parts of Chester County and near 40 further east. There could be some wet snow flakes or sleet mixed in for while during the early PM. We then turn sunny and mild again to start the new work week. The records for today: High 64 (1960) / Low 13 below zero (1899) / Precipitation 1.68" (1983) / Snow 21.8" (1983) - that was day one of the 2 day blizzard that left Chester County under 22.4" of snow. This was the 10th largest snowstorm in County history.

Sunny with slightly above normal temps for today with a high near 43. Rain chances increase tomorrow and chilly with temps likely staying in the 30's in the Western parts of Chester County and near 40 further east. There could be some wet snow flakes or sleet mixed in for while during the early PM. We then turn sunny and mild again to start the new work week. The records for today: High 64 (1960) / Low 13 below zero (1899) / Precipitation 1.68" (1983) / Snow 21.8" (1983) - that was day one of the 2 day blizzard that left Chester County under 22.4" of snow. This was the 10th largest snowstorm in County history.