ChescoWx

Through 1pm Tuesday the Euro has 2" at KMQS to 7" at KABE

Early spring incoming!

The NBM with it's nice blend has done IMHO the best job with storms so far this season...If I were in the Lehigh Valley and on northbound from there I would be pretty optimistic about snow. Down in southern climes like where I am....not so much.

No doubt you've all missed the one and only fabulous WXSIM (now featuring the Euro model blended in) forecast. WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at 9:00 AM Feb 9, 2024 Monday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Rain likely after midnight. Low 34. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 7 mph, gusting to 18 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Tuesday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon. High 37. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 31. Wind east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the morning, becoming north-northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches.

6z Euro Ensemble

Okie name just 1 event that has never happened before?? all the above have always happened in history....

A couple more very warm days for February on tap today and tomorrow before we begin to cool a bit on Sunday and much chill back to average cold for next week. We could be close but will likely fall just shy of records for high temps both today and tomorrow. Record today is 61 back in 1990 and 62 tomorrow set back in 1960. A slight chance of showers tomorrow but a better shot of rain arriving on Monday with a possible turn to snow into Tuesday morning. Records for today: High 61 (1990) / Low 14 below zero (1934) / Precipitation 1.86" (1906) / Snow 6.0" (1936)

A couple more very warm days for February on tap today and tomorrow before we begin to cool a bit on Sunday and much chill back to average cold for next week. We could be close but will likely fall just shy of records for high temps both today and tomorrow. Record today is 61 back in 1990 and 62 tomorrow set back in 1960. A slight chance of showers tomorrow but a better shot of rain arriving on Monday with a possible turn to snow into Tuesday morning. Records for today: High 61 (1990) / Low 14 below zero (1934) / Precipitation 1.86" (1906) / Snow 6.0" (1936)

CNBC reports that “ The world surpasses key warming threshold [+1.5°C] across an entire year for the first time!!! Ruh roh...let's all tremble in our boots.... but of course with that threshold crossed it not surprisingly delivered absolutely nothing catastrophic or life threatening to our planet. Now we used to hear that +1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average temps would be the scary “tipping point.” Me thinks the climate alarmists will need to push that baby back to maybe +2.0°C or surely 2.1 °C. That cataclysmic "tipping point" will most surely happen at that point.....right????

45th street

Hence why I leave forecasting to professionals like you!!!

Chilly water temp 42 degrees down the shore keeping the beaches in Sea Isle City at 44 degrees....while inland in here in Western Chesco we are at 51 degrees

Chilly water temp 42 degrees down the shore keeping the beaches in Sea Isle City at 44 degrees....while inland in Chesco we are at 51 degrees

A few more beautiful mild February days on the way before the pattern changes to a more typical winter pattern next week. There is a chance some valley spots in the county could see near 60 degrees on Saturday. Rain looks to arrive on Monday night and if some models are to be believed could mix with or change to some wet snow toward Tuesday morning. Some models have multiple potential winter events over the next couple weeks so stay tuned. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low 4 below (1895) / Precip 1.00" (1895) / Snow 10.0" (1895)

A few more beautiful mild February days on the way before the pattern changes to a more typical winter pattern next week. There is a chance some valley spots in the county could see near 60 degrees on Saturday. Rain looks to arrive on Monday night and if some models are to be believed could mix with or change to some wet snow toward Tuesday morning. Some models have multiple potential winter events over the next couple weeks so stay tuned. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low 4 below (1895) / Precip 1.00" (1895) / Snow 10.0" (1895)

As others have said a long way to go...plus with all of the moving pieces like the upper level lows still being off in the pacific....as Bernie Rayno says - windshield wiper effect for the next few days. Expect the GFS to go way north at 12z and then the Euro to come south....neither of course will be validation. All in all an active pattern but not one that is sure to deliver snow.

18z GFS

Thanks bdgwx! I promise to keep only to the actual pure un-adjusted National Weather Service Cooperative observers factual data and nothing else!! count on it!!

Thanks for the kind words Tim!

HI bdgwx, No need to rehash the same explanations again!! I will of course continue to only present the actual concordance of validated factual climate data as recorded by the official historic NWS Cooperative Observers for Chester County PA without any post hoc adjustments. I will protect the integrity of the factual actual data set by not including any unsupported adjustments like blanket county wide time of observation tweaks etc. A valid exception could be if we were to see real time documented NWS notes or reports at the station level documenting either faulty equipment or observation errors as noted by the NWS reviewer prior to their stamp of approval as best available record on the station climate sheets. I will continue to default to the NWS Cooperative Observers of record who at the time were supplied with the best available equipment and training and served this role in some instances for 30 or 40 consecutive years. I will not risk actual historical data contamination with adjustments made years or decades after the recorded observations.

Yes bdgwx they were almost all adjusted downward. To recap for 45 years straight from 1895 thru 1939 the adjusted average was lower than any station reported in any one of those 45 years! For the 76 years from 1895 through 1970 - 73 of those years featured an average county temperature that was lower than any reported station in the entire county. NCEI then continued to apply temperature reduction adjustments to lower the average county temperature by more than 1 degree F (but not every station) for an additional 23 years through 1994. Before gradually reducing the adjustment down and then turning it around and increasing the average county wide temperatures each of the last 18 years through 2023.

Unfortunately it did not answer or support the downward adjustment specific for 110 consecutive years (1895 thru 2004) at each specific station level I was looking for. The adjustments appear to be a simple blanket average adjustment downward by up to 4 degrees at some stations for 73 of 77 straight years. This lowered the annual average temperature than was recorded at every single station in an entire county in Pennsylvania for many decades in a row. It does not make sense that every single station's observations needed to be adjusted below what any of the stations in their area ever actually reported for decades on end. Plus the links to the observation time bias were easily refuted with consistency over a year or month of observation times. Below is a 25 year slice of the data (1927 thru 1951) in 99 of the 100 station annual average temperature reports were all lowered below any station in the county for that reporting year. Charlie earlier mentioned the Coatesville is clearly the coolest station in the county...Charlie earlier said that station had a cool bias. If that is true then why did NCEI choose to lower every station to lower than the Coolest bias station??

Thank you deseagull!! so refreshing to hear someone who does not simply sling insults etc. I have noticed a lot of folks on the non-stop warming bandwagon are very angry (I do want to call out that Charlie is not one of them) we may not agree on this area but he is always civil and respectful! I am a big believer in the day we stop questioning and fact checking science is a bad day. If you ever hear (and I have) anything in life is "settled science" this is false. Science is never 100% settled...science is about narrowing uncertainty. Thanks again!!!