ChescoWx

Cloudy and much chillier today with temperatures struggling to get to the mid 50's. Normal high temperatures this time of the year are within a couple degrees of 60 here in Chester County. We will fall to well below those levels following a strong cold front passage on Monday. Highs Monday through Wednesday will remain in the chilly 40's before we moderate to near normal by the end of the week. We should see sub-freezing low temperatures on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning. Our average date of the last freeze here in Chester County is April 18th in the higher elevation spots and April 25th in valley spots. Rain chances will continue through Monday although the Phillies should have no issues with getting in today's game at 4pm. The best chance of heavier rain Sunday night into Monday morning. We could see an additional 0.50" to 1.00" of rain by Monday's AM commute.

Now overlay the raw unaltered actual real data.....

I was asked to do an analysis of the drought conditions here in East Nantmeal, With the 0.08" of rain so far today here in East Nantmeal we have now recorded measurable rain for 6 straight days with 2.34" total during that time. We are starting to put a dent into the earlier drought conditions. From April 2024 thru today we have received 42.42" of rain with normal rain over this little over 1 year period being 51.39". So we are at 83% of normal rain with a rain deficit of 8.97" since April 1, 2024.

I was asked to do an analysis of the drought conditions here in East Nantmeal, With the 0.08" of rain so far today here in East Nantmeal we have now recorded measurable rain for 6 straight days with 2.34" total during that time. We are starting to put a dent into the earlier drought conditions. From April 2024 thru today we have received 42.42" of rain with normal rain over this little over 1 year period being 51.39". So we are at 83% of normal rain with a rain deficit of 8.97" since April 1, 2024.

No fear of non-Chesco data....but you make my case! The data after the adjustments as you admit is clearly no longer the actual climate data from Chester County PA. Following these post hoc adjustments the altered NOAA data for the majority of pasts years has now been chilled below levels recorded by even the coldest station in the county for decades at a time. That is simply not the data as recorded for the County. The actual raw data IS the actual NWS data as validated at the time of observation submission to the National Weather Service.

Some storm totals with the frontal passage overnight across the area. Atglen 1.10" /KMQS 0.67"/ Chester Springs 0.35" / East Nantmeal 0.54" / Glenmoore 0.43"/ Warwick Twp. 0.54"/ Devault 0.32"/ Kennett Square 0.88"/ West Chester 0.76". Behind the front, today will be almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday and another 10 degrees cooler this morning. By tomorrow we will be a few degrees below normal with high temperatures in the low to mid 50's. Shower chances ramp up again toward tomorrow morning and again by Sunday PM. We turn much colder to well below normal temperatures through much of next week with below freezing mornings Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Some storm totals with the frontal passage overnight across the area. Atglen 1.10" /KMQS 0.67"/ Chester Springs 0.35" / East Nantmeal 0.54" / Glenmoore 0.43"/ Warwick Twp. 0.54"/ Devault 0.32"/ Kennett Square 0.88"/ West Chester 0.76". Behind the front, today will be almost 10 degrees cooler than yesterday and another 10 degrees cooler this morning. By tomorrow we will be a few degrees below normal with high temperatures in the low to mid 50's. Shower chances ramp up again toward tomorrow morning and again by Sunday PM. We turn much colder to well below normal temperatures through much of next week with below freezing mornings Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Below is the Chester County PA Climate Summary for March 2025. We finished with the 10th warmest March (avg. temperature 46.5 degrees) since records began back in 1893. The warmest March was back in 1945 with an average temperature of 51.6 degrees. This was our warmest March since the 47.1-degree average back in 2016. Precipitation was not too far from an overall average across the County finishing as the 62nd wettest out of 133 years with an average of 3.96" across the County. We experienced no measurable snow for the 20th time in our history and the 3rd time in the last 5 years.

Below is the Chester County PA Climate Summary for March 2025. We finished with the 10th warmest March (avg. temperature 46.5 degrees) since records began back in 1893. The warmest March was back in 1945 with an average temperature of 51.6 degrees. This was our warmest March since the 47.1-degree average back in 2016. Precipitation was not too far from an overall average across the County finishing as the 62nd wettest out of 133 years with an average of 3.96" across the County. We experienced no measurable snow for the 20th time in our history and the 3rd time in the last 5 years.

All you have is data from outside the County.....those NCEI figures are pure unadulterated fiction and you know it. If they didn't drastically lower all station data temps to lower than all available stations they might have had better scientific ground to stand on.....

That was an old summary page the Chadds Ford data was not in the data calculation for the Actual Chesco Average temperature. The result is not changed. So again you look to stations well outside of Chester County to support the altered adjusted post hoc temperature data. You as always have zero actual raw data support.

Yesterday was our first April freezing temperature at East Nantmeal in almost 2 years (April 9, 2023). Looking ahead we may have at least a few more freezing mornings in our future before we leave those behind till next autumn. Overall, the next several days look very unsettled with solid rain chances every day. None of these days looks like a washout but some models depict as much as a couple of inches of rain as we continue to ease any remaining drought concerns looks likely.

Yesterday was our first April freezing temperature at East Nantmeal in almost 2 years (April 9, 2023). Looking ahead we may have at least a few more freezing mornings in our future before we leave those behind till next autumn. Overall, the next several days look very unsettled with solid rain chances every day. None of these days looks like a washout but some models depict as much as a couple of inches of rain as we continue to ease any remaining drought concerns looks likely.

And you Charlie are as usual in denial and evade mode. Let's just focus on your statement above that between 3 years 1945-1948 across 130+ years of data that Coatesville cooled by 2.1 and West Chester only. So why then would NOAA have adjusted the Chester County average temperature for the county to below any and all stations for those years and basically every year after for 30+ years? If Coatesville was too cool why make it even cooler?? The below shows that NOAA altered each and every year between 1941 thru 1970 and altered the data to a point colder than any station anywhere in Chester County for 29 of those 30 years. The yellow highlight 1st column shows the NCEI recalculated average annual temperature following the recast of actual to calculated data to be below all actual raw data for the county. So do you think they used Allentown up in Lehigh County as the reference station for these cooling adjustments? Where is the station you think they are using?? So all 6 stations actual raw observations should just be ignored and thrown out and replaced with a post hoc fake figure huh?

Some rainfall amounts across the area from last night and overnight's storms. Atglen 1.33: / Coatesville Airport 1.13" / Glenmoore 1.48" / East Nantmeal 1.61" / Nottingham 1.55" / Warwick Twp. 1.49" / Brandywine Airport 1.28" / Devault 1.74" / Kennett Square 2.07" / Longwood Gardens 1.98" / West Bradford Twp. 1.89" / Avondale 1.54"/ West Chester 1.96" / West Grove 1.69"

Some rainfall amounts across the area from last night and overnight's storms. Atglen 1.33: / Coatesville Airport 1.13" / Glenmoore 1.48" / East Nantmeal 1.61" / Nottingham 1.55" / Warwick Twp. 1.49" / Brandywine Airport 1.28" / Devault 1.74" / Kennett Square 2.07" / Longwood Gardens 1.98" / West Bradford Twp. 1.89" / Avondale 1.54"/ West Chester 1.96" / West Grove 1.69"

Happy Phillies Home Opener Day!! Go Phillies! While the good news is it will be an unseasonably warm opener....the team may need to dance between some rain today and this evening. Some showers could pop up anywhere this afternoon, but the heaviest rain should hold off till after the game. While the timing may not be the best we do need the rain, and many spots could see at least an inch of rain with even a thunderstorm possible tonight. Much cooler the next couple of days after the cold front swings through tonight. We may see lows near freezing in many spots by Wednesday morning. We warm again to close out the week with more showers possible by Thursday and Friday.

Happy Phillies Home Opener Day!! Go Phillies! While the good news is it will be an unseasonably warm opener....the team may need to dance between some rain today and this evening. Some showers could pop up anywhere this afternoon, but the heaviest rain should hold off till after the game. While the timing may not be the best we do need the rain, and many spots could see at least an inch of rain with even a thunderstorm possible tonight. Much cooler the next couple of days after the cold front swings through tonight. We may see lows near freezing in many spots by Wednesday morning. We warm again to close out the week with more showers possible by Thursday and Friday.

For all of you Cyclical Climate Deniers - where is that warming??

Charlie but where is the station data to support applying downward adjustments to the raw data to lower than any and all stations in the county (including Coatesville) for 80+ straight years? Just show us which station they used as the proxy? Clearly it is not a station in Chester County? As we have all of those stations and for almost all of those years not one station in the entire county reported average temperatures as low as the recast altered "move adjusted" figures? Did the proxy station come from Berks, Lancaster, Montgomery? Which county and which station??

The backdoor cold front went a good bit further SW than earlier forecast. All of Chester County remains in the 40's at 10am. As I mentioned yesterday I suspected the NWS forecast highs for today (low 70's yesterday) may need to be trimmed by as much as 10 to 15 degrees. The NWS has started to move in that direction with most forecasts now having temperatures remaining in the upper 60's....those will likely come down further as the cool moist marine flows off the very chilly 44-degree ocean water temperatures. I actually suspect especially NE Chesco to get no higher than the 50's....a tough forecast for sure but clearly much chillier than yesterday. Some rain tonight with a better chance of rain arriving toward the start of tomorrow's Phillies Home Opener (Go Phils!) If they need to move the game to Tuesday it will be below normal temperatures but sunny with highs in the low 50's here in Chesco.

The backdoor cold front went a good bit further SW than earlier forecast. All of Chester County remains in the 40's at 10am. As I mentioned yesterday I suspected the NWS forecast highs for today (low 70's yesterday) may need to be trimmed by as much as 10 to 15 degrees. The NWS has started to move in that direction with most forecasts now having temperatures remaining in the upper 60's....those will likely come down further as the cool moist marine flows off the very chilly 44-degree ocean water temperatures. I actually suspect especially NE Chesco to get no higher than the 50's....a tough forecast for sure but clearly much chillier than yesterday. Some rain tonight with a better chance of rain arriving toward the start of tomorrow's Phillies Home Opener (Go Phils!) If they need to move the game to Tuesday it will be below normal temperatures but sunny with highs in the low 50's here in Chesco.

Still 66.3 here in NW Chesco....5 miles east of here in Chester Springs 54

A very very tough temperature forecast as I mentioned this morning. We reached 82.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal this PM....but a backdoor cold front is on the march from off the relatively very cold mid 40's ocean. The National Weather Service has lowered their low temps to the upper 40's now across NW Chesco....some of the latest models (not a forecast model temps at 11pm tonight from the NAM) have 40's across NE Chesco to still near 70 degrees across SW Chester County. If the NAM model is correct we may never get out of the chilly 50's tomorrow across much of Northern Chesco despite the current NWS Forecast of high temps in the low 70's. Should be interesting!

Our warmest day since early November is on tap today across the area. Here in East Nantmeal we are already up to 73 degrees here at 1030am. Some valley locations across the area could reach or exceed 80 degrees today! This is nowhere near the County record of 88 degrees back in 1945. A backdoor cold front moving from NE to SW will try to cross the area toward midnight tonight. How far SW this front makes will make a huge difference across our area tomorrow. Currently the National Weather Service has highs tomorrow in the lower 70's here in East Nantmeal. This assumes the front remains NE of our area. However, some of the latest models suggest the front may almost make it to the Mason Dixon line. If this occurs we may see high temperatures, especially across Northern Chester County being at least 10 to 15 degrees lower than the current forecast. A 20-degree difference is possible from the upper 40's to the north to the 70's to the south. Rain chances to increase by Monday morning with some models showing as much as an inch of rain by late Monday night.