ChescoWx

Okie name just 1 event that has never happened before?? all the above have always happened in history....

A couple more very warm days for February on tap today and tomorrow before we begin to cool a bit on Sunday and much chill back to average cold for next week. We could be close but will likely fall just shy of records for high temps both today and tomorrow. Record today is 61 back in 1990 and 62 tomorrow set back in 1960. A slight chance of showers tomorrow but a better shot of rain arriving on Monday with a possible turn to snow into Tuesday morning. Records for today: High 61 (1990) / Low 14 below zero (1934) / Precipitation 1.86" (1906) / Snow 6.0" (1936)

A couple more very warm days for February on tap today and tomorrow before we begin to cool a bit on Sunday and much chill back to average cold for next week. We could be close but will likely fall just shy of records for high temps both today and tomorrow. Record today is 61 back in 1990 and 62 tomorrow set back in 1960. A slight chance of showers tomorrow but a better shot of rain arriving on Monday with a possible turn to snow into Tuesday morning. Records for today: High 61 (1990) / Low 14 below zero (1934) / Precipitation 1.86" (1906) / Snow 6.0" (1936)

CNBC reports that “ The world surpasses key warming threshold [+1.5°C] across an entire year for the first time!!! Ruh roh...let's all tremble in our boots.... but of course with that threshold crossed it not surprisingly delivered absolutely nothing catastrophic or life threatening to our planet. Now we used to hear that +1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average temps would be the scary “tipping point.” Me thinks the climate alarmists will need to push that baby back to maybe +2.0°C or surely 2.1 °C. That cataclysmic "tipping point" will most surely happen at that point.....right????

45th street

Hence why I leave forecasting to professionals like you!!!

Chilly water temp 42 degrees down the shore keeping the beaches in Sea Isle City at 44 degrees....while inland in here in Western Chesco we are at 51 degrees

Chilly water temp 42 degrees down the shore keeping the beaches in Sea Isle City at 44 degrees....while inland in Chesco we are at 51 degrees

A few more beautiful mild February days on the way before the pattern changes to a more typical winter pattern next week. There is a chance some valley spots in the county could see near 60 degrees on Saturday. Rain looks to arrive on Monday night and if some models are to be believed could mix with or change to some wet snow toward Tuesday morning. Some models have multiple potential winter events over the next couple weeks so stay tuned. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low 4 below (1895) / Precip 1.00" (1895) / Snow 10.0" (1895)

A few more beautiful mild February days on the way before the pattern changes to a more typical winter pattern next week. There is a chance some valley spots in the county could see near 60 degrees on Saturday. Rain looks to arrive on Monday night and if some models are to be believed could mix with or change to some wet snow toward Tuesday morning. Some models have multiple potential winter events over the next couple weeks so stay tuned. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low 4 below (1895) / Precip 1.00" (1895) / Snow 10.0" (1895)

As others have said a long way to go...plus with all of the moving pieces like the upper level lows still being off in the pacific....as Bernie Rayno says - windshield wiper effect for the next few days. Expect the GFS to go way north at 12z and then the Euro to come south....neither of course will be validation. All in all an active pattern but not one that is sure to deliver snow.

18z GFS

Thanks bdgwx! I promise to keep only to the actual pure un-adjusted National Weather Service Cooperative observers factual data and nothing else!! count on it!!

Thanks for the kind words Tim!

HI bdgwx, No need to rehash the same explanations again!! I will of course continue to only present the actual concordance of validated factual climate data as recorded by the official historic NWS Cooperative Observers for Chester County PA without any post hoc adjustments. I will protect the integrity of the factual actual data set by not including any unsupported adjustments like blanket county wide time of observation tweaks etc. A valid exception could be if we were to see real time documented NWS notes or reports at the station level documenting either faulty equipment or observation errors as noted by the NWS reviewer prior to their stamp of approval as best available record on the station climate sheets. I will continue to default to the NWS Cooperative Observers of record who at the time were supplied with the best available equipment and training and served this role in some instances for 30 or 40 consecutive years. I will not risk actual historical data contamination with adjustments made years or decades after the recorded observations.

Yes bdgwx they were almost all adjusted downward. To recap for 45 years straight from 1895 thru 1939 the adjusted average was lower than any station reported in any one of those 45 years! For the 76 years from 1895 through 1970 - 73 of those years featured an average county temperature that was lower than any reported station in the entire county. NCEI then continued to apply temperature reduction adjustments to lower the average county temperature by more than 1 degree F (but not every station) for an additional 23 years through 1994. Before gradually reducing the adjustment down and then turning it around and increasing the average county wide temperatures each of the last 18 years through 2023.

Unfortunately it did not answer or support the downward adjustment specific for 110 consecutive years (1895 thru 2004) at each specific station level I was looking for. The adjustments appear to be a simple blanket average adjustment downward by up to 4 degrees at some stations for 73 of 77 straight years. This lowered the annual average temperature than was recorded at every single station in an entire county in Pennsylvania for many decades in a row. It does not make sense that every single station's observations needed to be adjusted below what any of the stations in their area ever actually reported for decades on end. Plus the links to the observation time bias were easily refuted with consistency over a year or month of observation times. Below is a 25 year slice of the data (1927 thru 1951) in 99 of the 100 station annual average temperature reports were all lowered below any station in the county for that reporting year. Charlie earlier mentioned the Coatesville is clearly the coolest station in the county...Charlie earlier said that station had a cool bias. If that is true then why did NCEI choose to lower every station to lower than the Coolest bias station??

Thank you deseagull!! so refreshing to hear someone who does not simply sling insults etc. I have noticed a lot of folks on the non-stop warming bandwagon are very angry (I do want to call out that Charlie is not one of them) we may not agree on this area but he is always civil and respectful! I am a big believer in the day we stop questioning and fact checking science is a bad day. If you ever hear (and I have) anything in life is "settled science" this is false. Science is never 100% settled...science is about narrowing uncertainty. Thanks again!!!

Today should be our 16th straight above normal day...this streak should reach at least 20 days before our first chance at a below normal day since January 22nd by next Monday or Tuesday. Records for today: High 61 (2008) / Low 2 below (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Snow 10.0" (1895)

Today should be our 16th straight above normal day...this streak should reach at least 20 days before our first chance at a below normal day since January 22nd by next Monday or Tuesday. Records for today: High 61 (2008) / Low 2 below (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Snow 10.0" (1895)

As the article clearly states "If you keep the time of observation constant over time, this won’t make any different to the long-term station trends" There are no examples of a change in time of observation within any individual month in the Chester County records. So it is again a non-issue. This is not complex Charlie. If the obs time is 7am every day for 1 year and we go back and recast it to 9pm every day for the same year - the average temp over 365 days is of course exactly the same. My favorite part is where the article states a hypothetical of "well what if the the obs is at If you observe the temperature at 5 PM and reset the instrument, the temperature at 5:01 PM might be higher than any readings during the next day, but would still end up being counted as the high of the next day." The simple answer to that line is so what? In that situation irrespective of the time of obs it will of course even out in standard blocks of 24 hour days (as long as it is a 5pm to 5pm 24 hour span) recorded at the same time every day over 365 days of average temperature calculation. Even if a change was made at the start of 1 month in the middle of the year. The impact to the annual temperature over 24 days is not even close to material.

I think it is just we are due for less snow after completing 2 of our most snowy decades in our history in the 2000's and 2010's - cyclical pattern of climate change

Just to correct one point Charlie and others have often made on what Charlie calls a "major source of bias being the older temperature max and mins aren't on a midnight-to-midnight basis" This is a non-material difference. For a quick example I notice many of the old historical obs took place at 9pm. So I went back and recast the month of December at East Nantmeal and took the High and Low as of 9pm for the previous 24 hours. This resulted in a December average temperature of 40.4 degrees....this compares to.... you guessed it 40.4 degrees from the calendar day midnight to midnight obs for December. Over a month and especially over 365 days of annual records the observation time will not impact the average temperature for any location no matter what time it is taken - as long as it is consistently observed at the same time. Also of note in many historical months the observer took multiple recordings for example 7am-2pm and 9pm. Between these 3 obs they would take the lowest and maximum and record those. In some months they even listed those multiple observations on the written records they forwarded to the weather service or Department of Agriculture as it once was.

But of course still no answers from Tim.....