ChescoWx

LV again just to highlight the incredible variability in reported snow totals and highlight how difficult it is to disprove higher totals. Back in February 2010 - ABE airport reported 42.9" of snow for the month - Here in East Nantmeal Twp in Chester County only 35 miles SW of that spot a NWS trained spotter (me) recorded 62.8"of snow a 20" difference over 30+ miles in 1 month - a 48% variance!

Still you are dead wrong for calling anyone a name. He was a solid long standing reported for the weather service for at least 36 years! show some respect please

LV - it simply points out the variability in snow totals over short distances. I will post some real doozies between here and surrounding locations just in the past 15 years along with the rest of the data I am analyzing. Thanks!

Thanks Mike! I originally ordered Mr. Gordon's hand written obs from the NCDC back in the late 90's for 1894 to 1930 - he was very thorough and we should not disparage his work. I think the fact we are finding 50" plus snow totals for February at the NJ shore is plenty of validation for Coatesville - since we will never be able to review the radar to determine banding and/or if any convective components such as the Christmas 1966 blizzard etc. Thanks!!

Thankfully it is close enough as the crow flies in NMs to validate. I will also be sure to pass the total data set over to the NCEI when done to help them corroborate - good stuff!!

Christmas Eve 1966 - Coatesville 21.2" - West Chester 22" - while the Lehigh Valley and PA only received about 12"

Elevation was between 340ft and 380ft between 1894 to 1983. Since February 1983 elevation has been over 640ft ASL

Always enjoy these data mines!! I have so many examples of huge differences in snow totals across very short distances Any way back to February 1899. While not topping the Coatesville monthly total (heck someone has to be 1st it just is what it is!) here are some other relatively close monthly totals some to help corroborate totals Warrenton VA - 54" Egg Harbor City NJ - 52" Ellicott City MD - 52"

Some more back up for the February 1899 totals - Coatesville's 3 day total was 45.3" - Washington DC reported 34" even Cape May NJ 32" of snow - Easton MD reported over 50" of snow that month!

To start to validate and corroborate some totals - the Washington Post reported that "A storm on April 10, 1894 blocked roads with 2 feet or more of wind-whipped snow throughout parts of Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New York. As usual, however, D.C. was left with only a couple of inches"

There are so many examples of huge differences over short distances in Chester and Berks County - how about the March 19-21, 1958 snow event?? 50 inches at Morgantown while only 12 miles SE of there at Coatesville only 19" and yet then we go just 11 miles east of Coatesville and find West Chester back up to 32". Do we just go back and say Morgantown is wrong because it is an outlier? Good news for that storm is we have photos of the snow depth with trucks trapped at the PA Turnpike entrace. You cannot go back and disprove snow totals they are very very variable and to Mike G's post the set ups are different plus in the absence of any radar data to actually track and validate the banding it is impossible. Revisionist history like wiping data will not change the fact it happened

Hi LV - you need to relax and calm down a bit - it's just weather obs!. The late great Mr. W.T. Gordon was the long standing valued official cooperative weather observer for Coatesville for 36 years (1894 to 1930) without missing a day! I can and will give you many examples where his snow totals were less than surrounding areas....snowfall and banding is highly variable....look at that Morgantown example in March 1958.

Most of the models have trended much drier and further north....likely won't have a clear picture till 0z Tuesday with this set up

Of course all that matters regarding snow accumulation is what accumulates on non-paved surfaces. So while grass is not ideal (hopefully folks have a snow board or at worst a table) With a wee bit of elevation which the models are picking up on - if reality is as modeled (not saying it is) then we will see some folks reporting accumulations of snow. I have recorded 6" of snow at times without a flake on the roads or my driveway....it is still officially 6" of snow

The attached couple articles may help see the differences in snowfall across short distances...clearly in addition to topography there is banding etc. which can contribute to huge variation across relatively short distances. https://www.inquirer.com/philly/blogs/phillylists/Historic-snowfalls-Suburbs-totals-dominate.html https://billypenn.com/2018/03/07/why-do-phillys-western-suburbs-always-get-more-snow/

It is both best available and included as part of the record by the NCDC and PA State Climatologist. I have looked at other stations - West Chester Reported almost 40" that month....not unusual to have major differences across Chester County as you move from SE to NW or N to S. I have seen many occasions with huge differences. A great example is Morgantown in 1958 just 8 miles up the road from here recorded 50" of snow fell in one day with trucks stranded at the Turnpike entrace while down the road in West Chester (less than 15NM SE only 10" of snow fell....

I agree - as someone I work with once said - once seen it cannot be unseen LOL!! While there was no NWS it was validated by who was the official weather service prior to NWS formation - The US Dept of Agriculture - see the below part of the offical record from the NCDC

LOL! they were indeed certified by the NWS offices and are part of the official records for Pennsylvania.

Latest runs of the both the Euro and GFS on board for some accumulating snow for the North and West Philly burbs by Wednesday evening

Great books!

I am considering authoring the definitive "Everything You Wanted to Know About the Unique and Dynamic Climate of Chester County PA In the Philadelphia Suburbs" Is the title too long? Is $14.90 the right price? So many questions....

Cecily Tynan posted a stat last night on the news for the PHL Airport that winters have warmed almost 5 degrees in the last 50 years (see below) So of course I had to go back and do the analysis for 120 years for Chester County. To remove any bias of any one reporting station I used an average of all 8 available NWS COOP sites (with no less than 4 and as many as 8 sites) to see if on average our winters (DJF) have really warmed by almost 5 degrees? The answer of course away from PHL is a clear NO for the Chester County philly burbs! In fact from 90 years ago the most recent decade winters were actually 0.5 degrees colder Quote

Looking at November averages by Decade since the 1890's indicate with the most recently completed full decade (2010's) that we may indeed be heading back to a cooler cycle. Of note in ranking all decades since the 1890's - 5 of the 8 warmest November decades occurred in Chester County prior to the 1940's. With the exception of the very warm 2000's some very consistent readings with the 1900's and 2010's almost exactly the same

November stats below - on top of being the 64th coldest (+10th below normal in last 15 years) it was the 16th driest on record since 1894. Warmest day 69.2 (18th) - coldest 26.9 (24th)

I see ABE reported their 18th coldest November in 90 years of records. Here in Chesco only good for 64th coldest in 128 years of records....but of note this is now the 10th below normal November in the last 15 years!! November is looking like our peak of cold season departure months during our current phase of cyclical climate change