CoastalWx

PYM south look good. But BOS north seems to be on the line. Looking at GYX, that rain shield is not gaining latitude really. Look at 850 theta-e. Where is the WAA? if anything is dries out again this ftn north of the pike. In fact, best WAA doesn't come until it occludes and unravels tomorrow aftn.

It's not social media unfortunately. Anyways, I'm done. Watch us get 5" and me look like a fool..lol.

No rage, and who knows...watch us get 5" now..lol. I just feel like the field is becoming more and more of a joke all around.

Well the EPS now has a +PNA look in the 11-15 day so it might not be much change. I guess my overall point is that do not concern yourself so much with NPAC SSTs in October. In 2011, we had that massive trough over that region for months, starting Sept-Oct. I think when you have big anomalies either way in the NPAC, it can help feedback a bit too. But IMO, it is not a leading driver of the hemispheric pattern.

That's just T+18hrs out. More probably after, but euro is not far off.

I do understand people want to prepare and sometimes we go out of our comfort zone to help do that and risk not having a good forecast due to what you describe above. It seems like we have trouble (or maybe fear?) of adjusting to near term trends/guidance.

The HRRR now through hr 18 is .25". This is not a big deal at all.

NPAC SSTs are not a good indicator IMO. I'll say this until I am blue in the face, but they can change quickly and are a product of the H5 pattern, not the other way around. Our biggest driver in terms of SSTs and the pattern are down in the tropical areas. This is where all the warm water is. These waters are what help to drive the MJO which then has a bigger impact to the Rossby wave look and the H5 pattern. All those years that had a prolonged surface warm pool in the NPAC featured an overall MJO standing wave look west of the dateline. Think 2013-2015ish.

This storm is a great reason why the whole field will be replaced by robots soon enough. It's ok to mention that the impacts might not be what was first though a couple of days ago. That message was seen on guidance yesterday, but even now...I am seeing 2-3" to the north of Boston and 3-6" just south of the city. I don't understand why we can't just convey what will happen when things begin to change. We keep continuing with this notion to continue to sensationalize everything and it does nothing but make the science and the mets look bad. In my business, we are always trying to push situational awareness out and at least convey as accurately as we can when things change. Sometimes it's a little too late, and you can't knee jerk either...but we all know when it's time to hold 'em or fold 'em.

Stay safe from the .25" it had for you.

BOX really was awful yesterday.

October? The only seasonal signal this early that may give you a clue is ENSO. That is whether we are nino or Nina. We are sort of neither right now. With most a strong signal, it’s tough to say what will happen. So certainly something like a trough near AK at this time will not spook me. It’s part of their weather in then fall. Hell in winter too.

For this time of year it’s rather anomalous, but I’m not sure the impacts outside of erosion are going to be substantial. If this were 50-70 miles NW it’s a different story.

It’s way too early for concern. AK in fall is rather stormy so it’s not uncommon. If the Death Star happens near Thanksgiving and shows no signs of stopping on ensembles or sub seasonal guidance, then maybe I’ll be a little more concerned.

Taking forever to download. Anyways those blobs are a function of sun kissed SSTs from ridging aloft. And 2015-2016 was dry in CA relatively speaking?

Well to be fair it wasn’t ever a big deal outside of SE areas. But the areas that were pedestrian are even more pedestrian. Should be a good event PYM to cape.

It backed off yesterday. Was day before.

Man what a joke the gfs is. I knew it was wild, but it just keeps going less and less. Glad we sold.

Should be a nice milder look going forward for a little while.

Euro. NAM already cutting way back. This is not a big deal in most areas.

AN

Thank god we warm up again.

Rainy windy and awful out. Feels like NNE.

Zzzzzzz

This will be a battle Boston north... even my hood. Rt 44 to cape special. They’ll be rain near and north of Boston, but they’ll be lulls I think.