There’s a piece of vorticity such that the euro sort of gets the low and slings it back a tad. It’s basically starting to occlude. I see why it’s doing it, but it certainly could be overdone.
It’s an oblong shape low so crash SE of CF will take time. Given cold layer below 900, could be some decent pelting if NAM is right. It also looks mild at the surface. I’ll toss those temps at ORH on 06z Monday.