Nothing has changed too much. Just some bad luck and distinct disturbances you cannot forecast that may or may not occur. That’s how it goes sometimes. Persistence is the worst way to forecast.
EPS tends to be the better guidance so therefore that is favored. However, that is not always the case, and a compromise can always happen. But the GEFS are less skillful.
Well that’s not hard to say lol. I don’t think people realize what needs to go right to get these epic stretches. Like, everything needs to be located and timed right, with some luck sprinkled in. Special stretches in winter aren’t because we have a +PNA or -NAO. Those features just help to have things go right. Special stretches are because everything was located and timed with precision.
For what? I didn’t say or call anything. In fact if the EPS is right, it certainly falls short of what I thought. But whatever. Maybe when we shake this mundane, mind numbing pattern, we can squeeze something in.