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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    Yeah into RI from about EWB on 6z euro. So west of that is going to have serious water issues.
  2. CoastalWx
    Right. I mean think of Sandy and even Irene. You had 50-70mph winds 200 miles E and NE from center. This might be more 40 miles from center.
  3. CoastalWx
    HWRF would be nasty for srn CT.
  4. CoastalWx
    Here is the 925 windfield which is a good proxy to core of winds. You can see even at this latitude it remains tight. It also weakens quickly before landfall. If this were other tropical systems that were ETing and accelerating...the wind field to the east would be much more expansive. This is why I think any wind of relevance is near center and just to the east of it. It's a much smaller area than what we would typically see.
  5. CoastalWx
  6. CoastalWx
    I outlined the trough in red and the ridge in black. Those are the key players and whether a lobe of vorticity can capture and sling Henri to the NW.
  7. CoastalWx
    H
  8. CoastalWx
    That's the trough I am talking about.
  9. CoastalWx
    It's not even close.
  10. CoastalWx
    Quickly weakens though. Landfall western LI.
  11. CoastalWx
    What?
  12. CoastalWx
    150 billion?
  13. CoastalWx
    I think we touched on that. Both the ridge to the east and trough to the west are not typical for us to get canes. So you don’t have that massive pressure gradient like in previous storms. So it’s sort of on its own as far as analogs. I think that is why wind field appears much tighter compared to other storms in the past.
  14. CoastalWx
    Maybe 150mph?
  15. CoastalWx
    However if Henri rapidly strengthened to a cat 2, I’d be a lot more concerned.
  16. CoastalWx
    The winds on guidance don’t really show this. Maybe because normally we have a deep trough and low pressure west of the storm and a ridge to the east. This causes the pressure gradient to really tighten up on the east side. Sandy, Irene, Isaias etc all had this. We don’t have that with Henri. Henri looks to be a low end cat 1ish weakening before landfall as it slows over cooler waters.
  17. CoastalWx
    If this hooks into LI and NYC most of the area sees very little outside of CT and RI coasts. There is no ET transition and wind field is tight and not expanding. Kind of yawn solution.
  18. CoastalWx
    I’m around 28” here I believe.
  19. CoastalWx
    Nam close to NYC. Weekend is saved here!
  20. CoastalWx
    It’s fairly minimal outside a small srea
  21. CoastalWx
    It’s so compact not much away from center. We want to toss.
  22. CoastalWx
    HRRR FTW. NAM sucked here.
  23. CoastalWx
    Using the NAM as if it's a good tropical model.
  24. CoastalWx
    Or it takes its time turning north, but by then the ULL almost moves it more NE because it does not have enough latitude for the ULL to dig down and tug it to the NNW.
  25. CoastalWx
    If this slows near the Cape, big hydro issues just to the west of track.
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