RitualOfTheTrout

Good, I'll have my lawyers ready the contract for signature.

For now the 18z NAM is well within the envelope of tracks. If we see a similar issue in the rest of 18z data and a continuation in 00z then you could argue a trend back SE is underway but we are running out of time and the goal posts should be fairly narrow at this point.

Looks pretty similar to Euro. We are getting close enough now I fully expected the NAM to come back down to earth. Honestly 14 is still probably overdone.

Hopefully he lost the URL to the forum. I actually wondered if the prospects of a big storm would draw him out of hiding.

I was thinking the same thing, depending how this plays out we are probably only marginally behind the entire last season total by mid December.

Yeah I’m debating whether I should work half a day or just take the whole day off. I want to enjoy watching it and take the kids outside etc but not worry about having a 3 hour long commute home lol

You can also always check their Facebook Page https://www.facebook.com/NWSPittsburgh/ too. I find that even when the discussion's aren't updated they do seem be quicker to post their thinking via that medium. Also good to check during the storm, sometimes they will update with some localized info like where a band is setting up.

Will this do?

Looks like a good range for now given the possibility of briefly reduced ratios etc. Can always adjust the ranges a little bit again tonight one way or the other if needed without making big swings.

It varies based on where you are getting the data, two places I use most frequently are pivotal and tropical tidbits. On Tidbits when you are looking at the model data click on the "Upper Dynamics" / "Lower Dynamics" button to view panels other than surface / precipitation etc.

That's a pretty significant bump, one more like that would likely push the gradient out of Allegheny County. Looks like it's slowly caving towards the Euro.

Great looks overnight continue into this morning. I am skeptical of anything over a broad 6-8 given the caveats outlined by jwilson / NWS but given where we were even 36 hours ago things are looking good right now.

So sorry to hear about your loss, can't even pretend to understand how that would affect you on so many levels. Glad you are back and I hope you can enjoy tracking with us again. Looks like we may be on the verge of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat on this next one.

If by horrendous you mean lack of details in the discussions at times I don't disagree. They aren't always bad depending who writes them up. Fries and one other who's name escapes me usually do a pretty good job. I did a skywarn class several years ago and afterwards talking to the presenter I mentioned enjoying reading Fries detailed discussions and he said he had heard that from others too ( specifically local news Mets etc) I'm not sure if he is even still at our office or not these days.

They won't update map totals / expand watches etc until the full 00z suite is in and any required coordination with other offices if necessary is done.

Looks like they are factoring the relatively quick movement and marginal surface temperatures which give weight to the conservative approach.

So we have the Euro and NAM looking like a solid 4-8 across the area, GFS is probably 3-5 and Ukmet / CMC are like 1-2 I feel the NAM and Euro are probably a bit overdone at this juncture but if we ended with say a 70-30 split between the Euro/NAM camp vs GFS and toss CMC and Ukmet we end up with a solid Advisory event.

That's the best the Euro has looked for several runs now. Seems there is little NW shift with all the 6z models.

The general trend today has been to shift the totals east. Given the setup I had in my head 6 inches was probably the upper limit on this for us. If I had to put out a guess based on today's runs I'd say 2-4.

I counted 25 members on the 6z EPS using Allegheny county as the measuring stick that give us a solid 6-8 in storm. That's an improvement over yesterday. My only concern is the last few storms the Euro seemed to be the most amped up so take that caveat how you want at this point. Other models have also increased totals slightly for us too. Overall things trended in the right direction overnight.

Heh, man what a track.. Nothing like these old forecasts with big CRT monitors etc in the background.

Yeah, Nobody should be discounting any outcome, case in point just quickly looking at 18z GEFS there are more members getting the whole state in on the action.

Stronger storm \ negative tilt trough sooner and or slightly less confluence to the north and I think it could easily shift enough to get us more involved. Of course things could trend the other way and we are partly cloudy cold and dry. Either way, we all know what was modeled today is very unlikely to be the exact end result hence why people always say they don't want to be in the bullseye 5-6 days out.

I’ll echo that sentiment. Looks like the upcoming blocking regime may help mute the Nina effects. It really just started showing up, a few days ago it looked like lights out for awhile. In my experience that’s usually how it goes when the blocking actually happens; models catch on in the medium range rather than chasing day 14 “trends”. If we can get the pacific just little more favorable (more ridge out west) that would aid our chances. Either way it looks active next week, I’d be surprised if there isn’t at least one good snow storm somewhere in the East. Time will tell how many rolls of the dice we get. If blocking is a recurring theme that should help make this a decent year despite the Nina. Now watch the incoming geomagnetic storm fudge up the stratosphere and wreck the blocking.