RitualOfTheTrout

That's a pretty significant bump, one more like that would likely push the gradient out of Allegheny County. Looks like it's slowly caving towards the Euro.

Great looks overnight continue into this morning. I am skeptical of anything over a broad 6-8 given the caveats outlined by jwilson / NWS but given where we were even 36 hours ago things are looking good right now.

So sorry to hear about your loss, can't even pretend to understand how that would affect you on so many levels. Glad you are back and I hope you can enjoy tracking with us again. Looks like we may be on the verge of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat on this next one.

If by horrendous you mean lack of details in the discussions at times I don't disagree. They aren't always bad depending who writes them up. Fries and one other who's name escapes me usually do a pretty good job. I did a skywarn class several years ago and afterwards talking to the presenter I mentioned enjoying reading Fries detailed discussions and he said he had heard that from others too ( specifically local news Mets etc) I'm not sure if he is even still at our office or not these days.

They won't update map totals / expand watches etc until the full 00z suite is in and any required coordination with other offices if necessary is done.

Looks like they are factoring the relatively quick movement and marginal surface temperatures which give weight to the conservative approach.

So we have the Euro and NAM looking like a solid 4-8 across the area, GFS is probably 3-5 and Ukmet / CMC are like 1-2 I feel the NAM and Euro are probably a bit overdone at this juncture but if we ended with say a 70-30 split between the Euro/NAM camp vs GFS and toss CMC and Ukmet we end up with a solid Advisory event.

That's the best the Euro has looked for several runs now. Seems there is little NW shift with all the 6z models.

The general trend today has been to shift the totals east. Given the setup I had in my head 6 inches was probably the upper limit on this for us. If I had to put out a guess based on today's runs I'd say 2-4.

I counted 25 members on the 6z EPS using Allegheny county as the measuring stick that give us a solid 6-8 in storm. That's an improvement over yesterday. My only concern is the last few storms the Euro seemed to be the most amped up so take that caveat how you want at this point. Other models have also increased totals slightly for us too. Overall things trended in the right direction overnight.

Heh, man what a track.. Nothing like these old forecasts with big CRT monitors etc in the background.

Yeah, Nobody should be discounting any outcome, case in point just quickly looking at 18z GEFS there are more members getting the whole state in on the action.

Stronger storm \ negative tilt trough sooner and or slightly less confluence to the north and I think it could easily shift enough to get us more involved. Of course things could trend the other way and we are partly cloudy cold and dry. Either way, we all know what was modeled today is very unlikely to be the exact end result hence why people always say they don't want to be in the bullseye 5-6 days out.

I’ll echo that sentiment. Looks like the upcoming blocking regime may help mute the Nina effects. It really just started showing up, a few days ago it looked like lights out for awhile. In my experience that’s usually how it goes when the blocking actually happens; models catch on in the medium range rather than chasing day 14 “trends”. If we can get the pacific just little more favorable (more ridge out west) that would aid our chances. Either way it looks active next week, I’d be surprised if there isn’t at least one good snow storm somewhere in the East. Time will tell how many rolls of the dice we get. If blocking is a recurring theme that should help make this a decent year despite the Nina. Now watch the incoming geomagnetic storm fudge up the stratosphere and wreck the blocking.

Western Allegheny is getting smoked by looks on radar. Looks like some 35dbz returns on radar. I've been teetering on the Eastern edge of the better rates but heck of an event to start December for sure. Some areas may hit December whole month climotolgy snow totals on day one.

Coming down pretty good now. With sunset approaching pavement starting to get covered in a few places.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Snow will generally continue overnight as moisture wraps around an upper low tracking into southeastern Canada. An embedded shortwave will give one last southward push of snow this evening, potentially aiding in heavy snow band development along the I-80 corridor. During this last push, strong upper jet dynamics, steepening low level lapse rates and enough dendritic growth will promote an additional 1-2" of snow across eastern OH and southwestern PA while northwestern PA and the eastern ridge tops could see another 3-6" of snow. Thus, the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories will continue. I think if the above comes to fruition definitely not out of the question some areas in SWPA push 6 especially areas already closing in on 4in.

I've been watching that area on radar, it's been just to the NW of mby now for awhile, hopefully it can push SE just a bit more as there are some steady 20-25 dbz returns showing up.

Hard to get a good measurement with some melting with the warm ground but I'd say somewhere between 1.5in 2in at 11am. I woke up around 4am and we had flipped to snow, but there was nothing accumulated at the time.

I think the main difference here is the storm stalls out for a bit once we get on the cold side. That combined with some lake enhancement should prolong the window vs a storm taking the same track that just zips off to the NE. Not saying to expect high end of any of the totals but I have more confidence than usual given the setup.

Can’t complain about a 1-3 to start Meteorological Winter. This will be interesting to see how fast temperatures can crash. Afterwards, pattern looks active. Given it’s still early and LaNina favored climo, cold air might be problematic but at least for now doesn’t appear we will be in a shutout pattern to start the season.

Looks like the first accumulation of the season is possible tomorrow evening / night, probably only looking at a coating at best outside of the favored I80 / upslope regions but time to knock off the tracking rust.

Well that escalated quickly, I think we made a dent in that drought map today. Power knocked out too.

Finally got a good soaking rain today. It’s been interesting seeing the storms find different ways to dissipate before getting to me this week. Today appears to be no different but at least managed some rain. Lawn was starting to look like mid August than early to mid July with how brown it is. Case in point, watch the line just dissolve. Must be something to do with terrain as this happen pretty frequently year round, although today is partially plagued by some rain earlier that probably stabilized the atmosphere.