RitualOfTheTrout

The upcoming storm the Miller B Primary jump to the coast is still there, albeit the primary is very weak. The whole thing is trending weaker and faster. Sure there will be a narrow stripe of winners but not really the impressive widespread impact storm that was modeled a couple days ago. True Miller A's I agree, they need to be well defined and take an inland track with a mature CCB to transport moisture off the Atlantic over the mountains by the time the reach our latitude.

Extrapolation of the NAM, the last refuge of a scoundrel Pittsburgh Snow lover.

You must be a blast at parties.

Maybe that strong Midwest low on the 9th will end up weaker / more progressive too and we can squeeze something out of that in the form of a front end thump to mix to dryslot. Not the most fun storms, but better than a driving rain storm.

I agree, what was Joe Denardo rule of thumb, closed low at 700mb for our area to see 6 or 8 + storm? In my head based on the setup 6 was probably the high end even in the better case scenarios a few days back, but now it's just an open wave that is being modeled more and more progressive. Those are almost always lower vs what was modeled anyways in terms of totals. If this truly does outrun the NS and ends up being only the southern low, the track of that is going to be to far SE for anything meaningful here.

Id say let it play out another 48 hours before throwing in the towel. We've been on the other side where it starts trending better then goes the other way.

You can even see hints of all three jets at play, and with that block if you got some phased up storm (dare I say Tripple Phaser lol) there's a good bet it gets forced to go under the block.

12z GFS and CMC are fairly close in the depiction, both as you said get the primary into WV now vs GFS at 00z was further South. A lot of nuances on where the best place for the transfer to happen is, but that's getting to close for comfort.

Generally the look with the primary not making it into OH and now rather into Kentucky is much better for our chances. At least right now the warm tongue is held at bay but we also avoid the dryslot that tends to setup between the two lows during the transfer. It's a fairly narrow stripe for victory in the grand scheme of things and there is still enough uncertainty with evolution that this could go haywire for us, but its been somewhat refreshing to see generally the same look on both the GFS and Euro for a couple runs.

Probably best run yet I'd say.

Overall looks like less northern stream energy phasing in. If that continues its going to slide off the SE coast. Plenty of time to see where this goes on future runs.

Yep, its an improvement. Happy New Year everyone!

Anyone getting snow? Radar showing some decent returns in some areas. Mostly rain imby so far today, but temp is starting to drop.

I think the point is there are other parts of the board specifically for that discussion.

Verbatim its more snow at one time than we've had in a year so Ill take it, but a clear signal for mixing. Like to see that primary jump a little sooner as we know the warm nose is often underestimated.

I like where we sit, GFS and Euro ops get the primary a bit far North I think right now but decent signal for sure.

Indeed, still far enough out it could change pretty drastically, some of the individual ensembles barely had a storm or were pretty far east. The Thursday storm needs to get resolved before Id get excited. Just nice to have a legit potential storm, something to give a distraction from post holiday return to work depression lol Im really looking forward to the next time we get something to track and it keeps looking better and better as we close in.

Things still look on track for a possible storm on the 7th.

I agree, the pattern is changing, but that doesn't guarantee a storm, but we should at least have some chances.That 6th-7th storm bares watching for sure. Also maybe a lighter event prior if we can get cold enough.

Its been awful for sure, second least snow for a calendar year on record. Its a low bar, but gotta think we do better between now through mid March.

Those ENS snow maps at that range are pretty useless imho. Swing pretty wildly, prone to being weighted towards a few really bad or really big hits etc. Years past these maps did show more, but it's not like they ever verified then either. They did correct some bad bias'es that made them lean more snowy, so that's at least part of it. Only thing you can really glean is that at least as of that run, the pattern *may* be conducive for above average snow for the month of January. If its bad I wouldn't lose sleep over it, and if it looked great I wouldn't be teeing up the "It's Happening" Gif either...

Pattern changes are chaotic, less certainty on guidance, but also usually rushed. No guarantees of course, but I'm still optimistic we will have better luck in early Jan.

Rumor has it its been awhile, no need for details, if it snows we will know you took care of business.

Who forgot to check the locks on the asylums back door? Last one out had to much egg nog and a few patients got loose.

Since Im here Ill take a bit of my own advice, I agree with you, to soon to "cancel" anything. Probably not too soon to debate if the pattern change we thought was coming in early Jan might not be what we thought and it may take to the second half but would that really be that far off from most expectations of a more back loaded winter? Probably not, but those that ride the emotional pendulum with every op run will likely remain insufferable.