Mr. Windcredible!

After the 12z there's not too much guidance that supports more than a 1-2" event. HRRR typically cuts back QPF once you start getting with 18-24 hours...and let's be honest, really isn't a piece of guidance we should put a lot of faith in more than 6hrs out. I'm guessing it probably performs a bit better in an event like this where there's not a bunch of convection and complex dynamics to deal with...but still not holding my breath that it scores a coup. Was hoping to see this ramp up a little more as we closed in...but about out of time. 1-2" is still better than a goose egg though.

Euro finally comes aboard and NAM jumps ship. Go figure.

Not sure why most of my post got cutoff…here’s the full text… Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian to think it misses completely. I could see the NAM being a bit too juiced and it turning into a 1-2” type deal south of 84 vs a 2-4” regionwide event. And given that the Euro is on its own for this and the weekend event makes me think it’s clueless at the moment. I think 1-3” from pike south is a good first call. Anything to whiten the ground before the weekend arctic blast is fine by me!

Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian

It's pretty remarkable how close the SLP track through central PA has been on the operational GFS the past 3 cycles...and even that isn't a huge jump from yesterday's 18z run. So aggravating that we only seem to see this sort of run to run consistency when it's an inland runner.

About a month out...I predicted my first measurable snowfall of this year to within 1 day. Pleased with my now proven long range forecasting abilities, I immediately decided to forecast a 36" blizzard for CT on January 18. You're welcome CT posters.

That's the 18z NAM weenie run all of CT has been waiting for the past 3 days

I hate to drag this back up after all the back and forth bickering last night...but you said you remembered it being before Christmas. Are you by chance thinking of Dec 19-20, 2009? Still not 30-35"...but it was likely double digits in Coventry going by snowfall maps. Had about 20" here in Clinton. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/19-Dec-09.html

You really lucked out on the sweet spot there. congrats! hoping it slides east just a bit so I can at least record something more than a trace out of this one.

I'm at 32.5 now. If either the air or ground temp was just a couple degrees cooler, we'd be all coated up here. I've probably got 0.25" of slush on my glass patio table...but the grass is frosted at best and still bare in most spots. Nice dusting on the pine trees and leaf piles though. Exciting stuff

Some whitening of colder surfaces here near the shoreline. Heavy heavy trace

yeah...lull was expected before it picks back up again later

Surprisingly gusty here in the past 30 minutes too…wasn’t really expecting the winds until later

Yeah…hourly rate probably not far off. Radar peaked between 3-3.5”/hr. But my total is around 3.6” vs. 5”+ on radar. Whatever…either way…crazy rates there for a bit, but worst seemed to move they pretty quick.

Crushed everywhere. But yeah, a little over 2” in 30 minutes here. Has quieted down a bit now…only 2”/hr instead of 4”/hr [emoji13]

While I question exactly how reliable it is, Knowing my PWS wasn’t designed for these type of rates, it’s been around 4”/hr rain for the past 10min….nearly 1” during that time.

Flood waters in the terminal at EWR

Bit of thunder/lightning here. Surprisingly only just closing in on 0.5” in the gauge though.

some 1.5-2.5"/hr rates in SE PA right now

Evacuations ongoing in Wilmore PA now. A taste of what's to come...

to be fair...the bulk of that falls in a 6-8 hour window

I was looking at NE regional view and trying to figure out what you were talking about. Lucky for NO that's the 384hr GFS. Although Louisiana's next hurricane hit is just 192hs out on the Canadian.

Rain band has set up again over NYC. Gonna add to their big totals from last night.

I think it was warranted to some degree. Was probably worth emphasizing that Henri’s wind impacts were not likely to be as widespread as Sandy…but had this thing peaked at a Cat 2 yesterday and stayed in the further west course…it could’ve been bad across CT. It just irks me that no one wants to be the first station to backdown from the hype. You don’t even have to completely poo poo it as this point. But it’s pretty obvious at this point the wind threat here in CT much less a concern than it was. Still worth highlighting the flash flood potential.

Pretty thankful myself. Who wants a tree on their house and weeks without power? Still gotta watch the flash flooding threat across CT today though.