Mr. Windcredible!

No...I was starting to grow a bit wary even yesterday that things were starting to tick north on some of the models. Euro included. Very subtle ticks but still enough lead time to be concerning.

To be clear...I never expect to jackpot here. I'm always cautious when models show it even when it's the Euro showing it day after day leading up to the event. Never doubted a trend to more amped or more suppressed. But really thought we had at least enough wiggle room to avoid a mixing scenario. Here's to hoping some of these solutions are overdoing it.

A couple more crap winters down this way and I might be ready to start trolling the board like you

Really was hopeful we were going to avoid mixing concerns down here. So much for that. Is it too early in the day to start drinking?

...or not might be it's worst run yet

didn't realize that. Upton referenced 48 hours in their earlier discussion, so I just assumed.

For most of BOX's CWA start time is still a bit beyond 48 hours, hence no watches yet

looking forward to seeing watches get hoisted soon. It feels like it's been forever since I've been under a watch and had relatively high confidence in it actually verifying.

No, I only mentioned it since I felt like it supported most other guidance. If it were on its own I wouldn’t have mentioned it.

6z had the solid 1-3” across the state...12z cut back to like C-0.5”. I mean it’s the HRRR, if other 12z guidance disagrees then it’s tossed

Skeptical about tomorrow, especially near the coast. 12z HRRR was pretty meager...had things mostly drying up as it enters SNE. I know it’s a crap model especially this far out, but seems in line with most other guidance. NAM is the outlier for tomorrow.

While I’m linking where we sit here in S CT right now, hard not to be anxious after getting burned many times the past couple years. If there’s one thing that’s a lock at this point...it’s that the NAM should deliver us some amazing weather porn today.

95 supposedly closed in Branford with trees in the highway

Branford must’ve gotten nailed...10,000 outages there per Eversource...just over 30k statewide

Probably one of the best storms thunder/lightning wise I’ve seen around here. Couple strikes right on the street. I’m okay missing out on the damage.

Damn. Gusty here...but no damage. Expecting some reports along the shoreline just to the west.

Looks like it goes west of here...probably more Madison/Guilford. Just on the edge here...sky is angry...lots of thunder/lightning

Sun has come out here in the past 40 minutes. DP up to 67 and rising.

Some flakes flying here...34 deg

been under it here in Clinton for a couple hours...have picked up a couple inches. Looks like it may be getting ready to fizzle out shortly though

fortunate to get stuck under the same band down here. Only thing that prevented a complete disaster here...might still manage 5", would've been 3" at best without it.

dang...only about an inch back this way. intensity has picked up a bit in the past 1/2 hour, just getting into the edge of that deform band. my nowcast senses telling me we don't sniff the higher range of forecasts back this way...should still be good for 5-6" so long as we are solidly under some deform snows for a bit.

First flakes falling now near the shoreline. And with that I’m off to bed.

Yeah...it was unlike anything I'd ever seen during a snowstorm. I remember sitting down to dinner and I heard what sounded like water pouring off the roof in a heavy downpour. It was not the normal sleet pinging we're all familiar with. I stepped outside and was like "WTF?" My first thought was it certainly couldn't be sleet...way too big...but the thought of hail seemed just plain stupid. Truly baffling. It mixed for a good 2.5 hours probably. We would've had 3"/hr snowfall rates easy had it been snow. That mixing robbed me of my first 30"+ snowfall. My total was like 27.5"...without that mixing I think we easily would've approached 3 feet. It also made for a nightmare cleanup. We had like 15" of heavy wet snow, a 2-3" solid ice layer topped by another 10" of powder. We have a small driveway...single lane about 3 car lengths...and I spend 8 hours in total the next day digging it out. Snowblowers were useless. My neighbor across the street had a plow. Took him 6 hours just to get it out. We got lucky in that the town kept up with our street pretty well throughout the storm, so the street was passable by mid day the day after the storm. But places that weren't touched frequently through the storm ultimately requiried front loaders to dig out the streets. Plows couldn't handle it in many places. It really made me realize how much of a difference there is between 2 feet of snow and 3 feet in terms of cleanup time. The general public didn't seem to be able to grasp that. Lots of complaints about how long the clean up took...but the scale of the storm just simply isn't something we have to deal with on a regular basis. I'd give just about anything to live through another storm like that! Shame that its unlikely we see something like that again in our life times.

U of Washington has a well respected program. I know their grad program was always listed as one of the top 5 (along with PSU, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Colorado) when I was in school 10 years ago. GT also has a program...I know a guy who got his grad degree from there. Not sure how good their undergrad program is...probably middle of the road though.