Roger Smith

Well I'm old enough to remember the winter of 1966-67, in southern Ontario it was quite a wild ride (I was operating a backyard weather station about 30 miles west of Toronto at that time as a high school senior). November 1966 was very mild and rainy. There was a brief cold spell with a strong arctic high in early December then it warmed briefly to about 60 F. Following that most of late December was rather cold with some snow, not a lot. January 1967 turned very mild in stages, culminating in some record highs on 23rd and 25th. The second of these was again near 60 F. At this point the ground had thawed out and all the previous moderate snow cover was gone. The famous Chicago snowstorm came along the next two days, at my location it was a mixture of rain, sleet, ice pellets and heavy snow with thunder and lightning, quite a storm (we were supposed to write our SAT exams one of those days and it was postponed for a month as a lot of people couldn't get into school). The onset of much colder weather was very fast, after another snowfall of about 7" in early February, it turned bitterly cold and never warmed up much at any point until late March. There was another strong arctic high and record cold morning temperatures on March 17th and 18th. After that it warmed up quite rapidly and records (since broken) were set on the first two days of April. I would think that was one of the most variable winters on record in the region. From what I've seen of the stats from 1905-06 and 1949-50, they ran quite similar in many aspects (I am not quite that old).

Thanks for entering the Jan 2020 contest. Welcome to about half a dozen new and returning forecasters, hope you will continue to participate. And belated thanks to RJay whom I believe has been helping us out through 2019 by pinning these threads on a regular basis. So here are the forecasts. I have added a summary of scoring procedures for the benefit of our new entrants. Your forecasts appear in the same order as DCA forecasts from warmest to coldest, if those are tied, then NYC determines it, etc. Table of forecasts for January 2020 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Brian5671 ____________________ +6.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 ___ 0.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.0 __ --3.0 _ --4.5 _ --4.0 dwave ________________________ +4.3 _ +4.5 _ +2.2 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.3 __ --1.4 _ --2.9 _ --3.0 RodneyS ______________________ +4.3 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +4.2 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 __ +0.2 _ --1.7 _ +0.3 RJay __________________________ +4.2 _ +4.6 _ +4.2 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 __ --1.0 _ --2.2 _ --2.5 wxallannj ______________________+2.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.2 __ +0.7 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 __--0.7 _ --0.6 _ --0.7 yoda __________________________ +2.3 _ +1.8 _ +0.9 __ +0.4 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 __ --1.7 _ --0.7 _ --0.3 Don Sutherland.1 ______________ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 __ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ +0.4 BKViking ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 __ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 __ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ___ Consensus ________________ +2.2 _ +1.8 _ +1.3 __ +0.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 __ -1.0 _ --1.0 _ --0.4 JakkelWx ______________________+2.1 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +0.7 _ +2.3 _ +2.2 __ --1.5 _ --0.2 _ --1.7 wxdude64 _____________________ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 __ +0.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __--1.1 _ --0.9 _ --0.6 Roger Smith ___________________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 __ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.2 __ --1.0 _ --1.2 _ --0.5 Tom ___________________________ +1.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 __ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +0.6 __ --0.5 _ --0.2 _ --0.4 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.4 _ +1.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +0.3 __ --0.7 _ --0.6 __ 0.0 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 rclab __________________________ +0.5 _ --0.5 _ --1.4 __ --0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.3 ___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Rhino16 _______________________ --0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ --0.1 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 __ --3.0 _ --2.0 _ +0.7 ____________________________________________________________________ In the table above, highest and lowest forecasts are color coded. Normal is lower for ATL and tied lowest for IAH. Scoring procedures: 1. For most months, scores are based on 100 for a perfect call, less 2 pts per 0.1 error. Scores that would be negative remain zero. 2. For months with anomalies greater than 5.0 (+ or --), the system is similar but for the amount by which the anomaly exceeds 5.0, that portion deducts only one point (at both the low and high ends). Example, you predict +3.5 and outcome is +6.0, your score would be 50 using the first rule, but is boosted by 10 since you lose only one point per 0.1 error from 5.0 to 6.0, making your score 60. Or if you score from zero up, you have 10 points by +1.0 then add another 50 for +2.5 further correct portion. In this way, anyone with the right anomaly sign always gets a non-zero score. If a month ends up with a greater anomaly than +10 (for example, March 2012) then scores are calculated from percentage of anomaly achieved (+8.0 against +12.0 would score 2/3 or 67). 3. If neither of those procedures result in a raw score of 60 or higher from one forecaster, then we go to a "minimum progression" of scores where the closest forecast gets 60, and all others get a pro-rated value down to a zero value for the least accurate forecast. However, any progression score that is lower than your individual raw score would convert to the higher raw score, so you can only gain, not lose, from this rule. As a result of this rule, some forecast always scores at least 60. This month, with 16 forecasts, the step function will be 4 points (60, 56, 52 etc ending in zero). Tied forecasts both or all score the highest of the step values (e.g., three tied for fourth best forecast this month would all get 48 points). 4. Consensus and Normal are scored using all the same rules. Your rank and score assigned, however, is only within the group of forecasters. Consensus and Normal can be allotted intermediate step scores in the progression system, or they may be equal to a forecaster's score. Consensus forecast is the median rather than the mean (to reduce if not eliminate any influence of one or two outliers). I am going to keep track of two scores for Normal, one a contest score, and the other a raw score based on no adjustments from rule one, that way we have a log of the total departure from normal. 5. Late penalties are strictly applied once we get past this month. For 2020, these will be 1% for every four hours or portion late through 36h (possible 9% penalty to 18z 2nd) then a further 1% per hour.

I assume you are asking raindancewx that question, but from my point of view it would not change the outlook. My timing was a bit off, the warming trend in the east began around mid-December rather than early in January. That mid-month reversal happened in other years, notably 1875, 1889, 1936, 1949 and 1964. Most of those were followed by very mild Januaries and first half of Februaries in the east. A general trend towards colder than normal weather late February and March could be noted in those same years. January 1950 was particularly warm in the east and set records in the 70s on the east coast towards the end of the month (25th-26th). Although the lead-in was somewhat different, 1905-06, 1908-09 and 1915-16 as well as 1966-67 converged on the same late January warm signal. Most of those turned a lot colder in February. I think the odds are pretty good that winter 2019-20 will feature a core warm spell with bookend cold periods, and the second phase of cold might be fairly potent when it does arrive. Temperatures in the western Canadian arctic have been running colder than average, so there is a source region available. (-40 at YCB recently).

Not sure how close to the actual count this would be, but Wikipedia currently lists 1,390 confirmed U.S. tornadoes (to Dec 30th) and says the most severe was an EF4 in Alabama on March 2nd.

Will say 1492 and first high risk a major outbreak in the south-central states around Feb 8th-9th.

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Our top two forecasters for the 2019 contest year were Mid Atl forum members, wxdude64 and RodneyS. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. From this forum we have a couple of regular entrants, Scotty Lightning and Tom. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Several well known NYC forum members are regulars, including Don Sutherland, wxallannj, BKViking and hudsonvalley21. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Hello, just a shout out to all regional forums that the annual temperature forecast contest is underway for 2020, we have a core group of about ten but all of us would like to see a larger turnout, so to encourage that, no late penalties if you take the time to enter on Friday up to 0600z Saturday early morning. Details are in the general interest forum, here's a link (or if you post here I can transfer the forecasts over). Required would be forecasts (anomaly format vs 1981-2010) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Thanks and good luck with your winter experience. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52869-january-2020-temperature-forecast-contest/

Well we have a soccer team at least (eleven entrants including all nine of the hardy crew). I am going to extend the free entry period one more day and post notices on all subforums, to see if we can encourage a few more entries. Post your own words of encouragement on my invitation threads, it might help. You can edit your forecasts too, I won't look at anything for a table of entries until Saturday.

You may have bobbed your head but I think I lost both shoes and ran into the guy who rings the bell for the last lap or maybe just took a javelin in the back.

< Final results ... The total scores for 1st and 2nd place are only 8 points apart. Given the number of points, and forecasts made over the year, in scientific terms this amounts to a tie, I wish we had a more decisive result but it is what it is, and congratulations to both wxdude64 and RodneyS for a great year of forecasting. I will go over everything to verify this close result, but in terms of the November totals being valid and December scoring accurate, I found no errors there, so will be checking back over the tables, will confirm or amend as necessary within a day or so. Scoring is backed up by an excel file, if there are any errors they will be more likely transcription than scoring errors. > <<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan - Dec 2019 ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>   A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals.  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL wxdude64 ____________825 _950 _779 __2554 __724 _666_885__2275 __4829 __ 671 _850 _764 __2285 ___7114 RodneyS ______________731 _892 _787__2410 __716 _687 _914__2317 __4727 __ 755 _852 _772 __ 2379___ 7106 ___ Consensus ________777_ 950 _810 __2537__672 _682 _884 __2238 __4775 __ 625 _860 _780__2265 ____7040 DonSutherland.1 ______709 _924 _729 __2362 __663 _710 _920 __2293 __4655 __ 631 _902_ 794__2327____ 6982 wxallannj _____________757 _860 _840 __2457 __612 _749 _862 __2223 __ 4680__ 585 _844 _774 __2203____ 6883 BKViking _____________ 802 _899 _830 __2531 __617 _606 _807 __2030 __4561 __ 593 _815 _788 __2196 ____6757* hudsonvalley21 _______716 _948 _886 __2550 __600 _698 _856 __2154 __4704 __ 449 _832 _728 __2009____ 6713 Roger Smith __________ 776 _834 _750 __2360__641 _609 _770 __2020 __4380 __ 746 _808 _704 __2258 ____6638 Scotty Lightning_______707 _890 _785 __2382 __637 _667 _878 __2182 __4564 __ 459 _784 _642 __1885 ____6449 Tom __________________615 _837 _687 __2139 __651 _553 _860 __2064 __4203 __ 559 _834 _739 __2132 ____6335  ___ Normal ___________492 _840 _670 __2002 __613 _430 _804 __1847 __3849 __ 470 _823 _569__1862 ____5711 Stebo (4/12) __________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __ 1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ___ 2225 RJay (4/12) ___________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __ 1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ___ 2083 Jakkelwx (2/12) _______150 __148 __ 66 __ 364 __ 54 _107 _108 __ 269 ___ 633 ___ 80 _186 _152 ___ 418 ___ 1051 tplbge (1/12) ___________ 90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _ 100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 __ 88 __32 ___ 192 ____ 684 Orangeburgwx (1/12) ___ 50 __ 90 __ 78 __ 218 __ 88 __ 60 __ 80 __ 228 ___ 446 ___ 60 __100__ 76 ___ 236 ____682 smerby (1/12) __________ 94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___ 432 ___ 50 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 228 ____ 660  _______________________________________________________________________ * with 180 points deducted for late penalties over the contest year, total would have been 6937, no other regulars would have moved up to a different rank with their smaller late penalties added in.  Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).  _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. _ from July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also ___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). In Dec, BKViking and hudsonvalley add one win (SEA) where jakkelwx (2nd contest entered) had a higher score. _ from October, best scores with ^ are regular forecaster high scores, as Orangeburgwx had high scores for BOS, ORD, cent/east, PHX and month of October. Those count for both Orangeburgwx and the regular forecaster with high score in each case. ATL and central subregion will be a tie between DonS and Orangeburgwx so no ^ symbol needed there. (all these are provisional at the moment).  FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine  wxdude64 (24) _________ 3 ___0 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___2*____2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___2 ___3 ___ 2 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN RodneyS (29) __________ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 4 ___1 ___2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 4 ___2 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY  ___Consensus (5) ______1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland.1 (17) ___0 ___2 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ____ 2 ____ 2^____0 ___2 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 1^ __ OCT^ wxallannj (19) __________ 1 ___2 ___1 ____ 1____ 0 ___4 ___2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___2*___1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ DEC BKViking (8) ____________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___1*___1*___2 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 (14) ____ 1 ___4 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2*___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith (42) ________6 ___2 ___2 ____ 5 ____ 4 ___4 ___1 ____ 3 ____ 3 ____ 3 ___3^___1 ___ 2 ____ 3 __ JUL, SEP, NOV Scotty Lightning (14) ____ 1 ___1 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ AUG Tom (10) _______________ 0 ___2 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 2* ___ 0 ___ Normal (10) ________ 1 ___3 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  Stebo (5) ______________1 ___0 ___1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB  RJay (3) _______________0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0  jakkelwx (4) ___________ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ____ 0 Orangeburgwx (7) ______ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ___1 ___0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ OCT smerby (2) _____________ 0 ___1 ___0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 The number in brackets beside forecaster names shows total best forecasts.  __________________________________________________________________________________  Extreme forecasts   FINAL STANDINGS for 2019 Roger Smith _________27-8 (3 _/) RodneyS ____________ 13-5 wxallannj ____________11-2 wxdude64 ___________ 9-0 DonSutherland1 ______8-0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 7-1 (1 _/) BKViking ____________ 6-0**^% Scotty Lightning ______6-1 Normal ______________ 6-1 Orangeburgwx _______ 5-2 Tom _________________ 4-1 Stebo ________________3-1 Jakkelwx ____________ 2-0 RJay ________________ 1-0 tplbge _______________1-0  *retained as Jakkelwx played fewer than three.  ^ no decision for BOS, SEA in Aug (highest raw score reduced by late penalty) ^ also no decision for PHX (Sep) same reason. % also no decision for PHX (Oct) same reason. _/ ... Roger Smith (Oct) has three wins among regular forecasters but Orangeburgwx has higher scores and wins for those also. Hudsonvalley21 (BOS) same reason for symbol. ... ... The other win for Orangeburgwx was a tie with DonS (ATL) so this symbol is not needed for that. ... ... IAH was scored an extreme forecast in Oct because it would have qualified among regular forecasters. There was a win-loss situation and Orangeburgwx shared a loss (with RS) although if he were a regular participant the outcome would not have qualified. (third coldest forecast of Tom, and Normal, shared a win).

Thanks for those entries, please note the later deadline just this month, which would allow you to edit these numbers any time before Jan 3rd 06z (Thursday evening or 0100h EST Friday). I may take advantage of that but for now ... +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.0 _ --1.2 _ --0.5

Final Scoring for December 2019 (ORD and ATL required rank-ordered scoring based on a max of 60 as raw scores were considerably lower. DEN came close to the same result but has some raw scores in the low 60s. SEA had one score that prevented rank-ordered scoring. However, if we had gone to that, most raw scores would have been higher than the progression anyway. One score at ATL is a raw score rather than the rank-ordered value (7 instead of 4). FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL wxallannj __________________ 66 _ 96 _ 58 ___ 220 __ 53^_ 60^_ 90 ___ 205 __ 423 __ 64 _ 68 _ 46 ___ 178 ____601 BKViking __________________ 86 _ 82 _ 82 ___ 250 __ 18^_ 53^_ 56 ___ 129 __ 377 __ 64 _ 92 _ 48 ___ 204 ____ 581 DonSutherland.1 ___________82 _100_ 60 ___ 242 __ 39^_ 46^_ 80 ___ 167 __ 407 __ 50 _ 96 _ 26 ___ 172 ____ 579 hudsonvalley21 ____________70 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 242 __ 25^_ 39^_ 72 ___ 138 __ 378 __ 58 _ 66 _ 48 ___ 172 ____ 550 wxdude64 _________________86 _ 94 _ 60 ___ 240 __ 46^_ 39^_ 76 ___ 163 __ 401 __ 34 _ 96 _ 16 ___ 146 ____ 547 ___ Consensus _____________ 68 _ 96 _ 54 ___ 218 __ 29^_ 29^ _ 70 ___ 130 __ 346 __ 36 _ 96 _ 36 ___ 168 ____ 514 RodneyS ___________________66 _ 78 _ 44 ___ 188 __ 60^_ 07 _ 84 ___ 151 __ 339 __ 32 _ 94 _ 34 ___ 160 ____ 499 Scotty Lightning ___________ 72 _ 94 _ 50 ___ 216 __ 32^_ 25^_ 66 ___ 125 __ 339 __ 26 _ 94 _ 32 ___ 152 ____ 491 Tom _______________________ 62 _ 86 _ 52 ___ 200 __ 11^_ 11 _ 58 ___ 080 __ 280 __ 38 _ 90 _ 38 ___ 166 ____ 446 Jakkelwx __________________ 58 _ 80 _ 36 ___ 174 __ 04^_ 25^_ 40 ___ 071 __ 243 __ 00 _ 96 _ 64 ___ 160 ____ 403 ___ Normal _________________52 _ 84 _ 50 ___ 186 __ 15^_ 00 _ 36 ___ 053 __ 237 __ 26 _ 86 _ 22 ___ 134 ____ 371 Roger Smith _______________ 00 _ 34 _ 00 ___ 034 ___ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 __ 034 __ 00 _ 86 _ 00 ___ 086 ____ 120 ======================================================================================== Extreme forecast report Seven of the nine locations had an extreme forecast high score, all for warmest forecast at locations. BKViking tied for wins at DCA, BOS and DEN. Wxdude64 tied for DCA, hudsonvalley21 for BOS, and wxallannj for DEN. Wxallannj also had wins at ATL and IAH. RodneyS had a win for ORD. Jakkelwx had the win at SEA, and among regular entrants, wins are also awarded there to BKViking and hudsonvalley21 NYC (+0.8) ended up closer to our consensus than the highest forecasts. PHX (+0.7) ended up close to our consensus but there wasn't much spread in forecasts, a result of +0.2 would have made coldest forecast tied for high score. =========================================================================================== (The annual update will be published when this table is finalized and checked. The difference between first and second at this point is less than 10 points. Meanwhile, I managed to drop from third to seventh by going way too cold. And yet I have snow, so there is that. )

Here comes the year 2020, do you believe it? I don't. (10 point penalty) I will be beating the drums around the regional forums to see if we can improve our turnout, but as long as the regular folk want to keep going, the contest threads will appear until it's just me and three other people (after that, maybe not) ... Our task as always is to predict the anomalies (relative to 1981-2010) for these nine wonderful locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Since I hope to keep up the publicity over the new year's holiday, there will be no late penalties imposed until after Jan 3 0600z (which is late Thursday evening of Jan 2nd). This year (and this applies to the later start for January) the late penalties will be 1% for every portion of four hours late through first 36h (to 18z of 2nd normally, and 4th for January's contest). That takes us to 9 points possible deduction, and then it would be 1 more percentage point per hour until 91 more hours have passed (which takes us to 13z of the 6th). For January, I will increase these to 2% at whatever time is needed to reach that same absolute cut-off time. Good luck -- the 2019 contest final results should be available some time late on January 1st. It's a close fight between RodneyS and wxdude64, looking too mild for my chances.

Oops, I totally forgot to update the final part of the Four Seasons contest, so here goes: Four Seasons contest -- Final Report The table shows your ranking at each location, and for various regions. Since central/eastern is ranked, the ranks for each of them are not added in to the total value. The regional totals are double weighted since both they and the all nine values contribute to the total score. As with golf, low score wins (rank 1 = highest point total, etc). However, you have to play all four seasons, so a lower score for two seasons does not count. Ranks with an asterisk * symbol are tied by points scored over the three months. If a player ties Consensus or Normal, only they get the asterisk (not the person). This is the final report now that Autumn 2019 ranks are available. __ Congrats to RodneyS for holding on to a win, as the pack moved in (2nd through 5th each separated by only 1 point). FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west_all nine_TOTAL ___ Consensus __winter__ 5 __ 6 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__( 6) __ 6 ___6*__ 6 __ 5 ___5 ___ 7 _____ 71 ________________ spring __ 1 __ 2 __ 4*__ ( 1) ___ 2 __ 4 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 4 ___ 4 ____ 3 _____ 40 ________________ summer _3*__1*__ 4 __ ( 3) ___ 6 __ 3*__ 2*__(4*) __ 2 ___ 6 __ 5 __5 ___ 5 ____ 1 _____ 43 ________________ autumn _ 5 __ 4 __ 4*__ ( 4) ___ 3 __ 4 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 3 ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___ 6 ____ 3 _____ 52 __ 206  RodneyS _______winter___8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67 ________________ spring __ 4* __1 __ 3 __ ( 4) ___ 1__ 2 __ 1*__( 1) __ 1 ___ 1 __ 2 __1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 19 ________________ summer _5*__2 __ 2 __ ( 4) ___ 1*_ 9 __ 6 __ ( 7) __ 9 ___ 4*__ 9 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 66 ________________ autumn _ 3 __ 4*__ 8 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __3 __ 6 __ ( 6) __ 4 ___ 2 __ 7*__ 6 ___ 5 ____ 3 ______ 57__ 209  Roger Smith _____winter __1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___ 11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7) __7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64 ________________ spring __ 9 __ 5*__ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 _ 10 __ 9 __ ( 9) __ 9 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 9 ___ 3 ____ 7 ______ 81 ________________ summer _1 __ 8 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 1*__4 __ 8 __ ( 5) __ 7 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 44 ________________ autumn _ 1 __ 1 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 1 __ 6 __ 4*__ ( 1) __ 1 ___ 1 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 4 ____ 1 ______ 35__ 224  wxallannj ______ winter __ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 __1 __ 1 __ ( 1) __1 ___ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1 ______47 ________________ spring ___3 __ 9 __ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 2 __ 3 __ 7 __ ( 3) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 4 ______ 59 ________________ summer _ 2 __ 5 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 8 __ 8 __ 7 __ (8*) __ 5 __ 3 __ 3 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 51 ________________ autumn _ 7 __ 7 __ 3 __ ( 7) ___ 5 __ 5 __ 7* __ ( 7) __ 6 __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 7 ____ 8 ______ 68 __ 225 wxdude64 ______ winter __ 9 __ 5 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___ ( 6) __ 9 ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9 __10 ____10____ 96  ________________ spring __ 2 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 7 __ 6 ___ ( 6) __ 4* ___4 __ 4 __ 2 __ 4 _____ 3 _____ 52 _________________summer _9 __3*__ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 1*__6 __ 2 ___ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _____ 43 ________________ autumn _ 2 __ 2 __ 5 __ ( 2) ___ 7 __ 1 __ 3 ___ ( 2) __ 2 ___ 4 __ 4 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 _____ 35 __ 226 DonSutherland.1 _winter _4 __ 5 __10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46  ________________ spring __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 __ ( 7) ___ 6 __ 8 __ 1*__( 2) __ 4*___3 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 43 _________________summer _5*__3*__ 9 __ ( 7) ___ 4 __ 4*__3* __( 4) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 8 __ 8 ___ 9 ____ 8 ______74 _________________autumn _ 8 __ 8 __ 7 __ ( 8) ___ 3*__ 2 __ 4*__ ( 3) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 6 ____ 7 ______64__ 227  hudsonvalley21 __winter __5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______54  ________________ spring __ 6 __ 3 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 7 __ 1 __ 5 __ ( 4) __ 2 ___11 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 8 ____ 6 ______64 _________________summer _4 __ 1 __ 1*__( 1) ___ 5 __ 2 __ 1 __ ( 1) __ 1 ___ 8 __ 7 __ 7 ___ 8 ____3*______48 _________________autumn _ 6 __ 3 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9 __ ( 9) __ 7 ___ 9 __ 5 __ 7 ___ 8 ____ 9 ______ 81__ 249 BKViking _______ winter __ 7 __ 3 __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 _____ 85  ________________ spring __ 1 __ 4 __ 8 __ ( 2) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 8 __ ( 8) ___ 7 ___ 8 __ 8 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 _____ 76 _________________summer _ 3 __ 9 __ 3 __ ( 3) ___ 7 __ 3 __ 3* __( 6) __ 2 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 2 ___ 4 ____ 5 _____ 53 _________________autumn _ 4 __ 6 __ 6 __ ( 6) ___ 3*__ 9 __ 7* __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 5 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 2 ____ 4 _____ 56__ 270  Scotty Lightning_winter__ 2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ___ 4 ______ 64 ________________ spring __ 8 __ 8 __ 2 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 4 __ 4 __ ( 7) __ 8 __ 10 __ 9 __ 6 ___ 9 ____ 9 ______ 86 ________________ summer _7*__6 __ 8 __ ( 8) ___ 6 __ 1 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 4 ___ 2 __ 3*__ 9 ___ 5 ____ 6 ______ 62 ________________ autumn _ 5 __ 4*__ 4 __ ( 4) ___ 2 __ 8 __ 1 __ ( 5) __ 3 ___ 8 __ 9 __ 9 ___ 9 ____ 8 ______ 70__ 282   Tom ____________winter __11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___1 __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 ____11_____96  ________________ spring __ 4*__ 5*__ 7 __ ( 5) ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___( 4) __ 3 ____ 6 __ 7 __ 8 ___ 6 _____ 5 ____ 65 _________________summer _7*__ 7 __ 7 __ ( 9) ___ 9 __ 7 __ 8* __( 9) __ 9 ____ 9 __ 1 __ 6 ___ 6 _____ 9 ____ 85 _________________autumn _ 9 __ 9 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 8 __ 4 __ 2 ___ ( 4) __ 9 ____ 3 __ 7*__ 3 ___ 3 ____ 7 _____ 73__ 319   ___ Normal _____winter___9 __ 3 __ 8 __ ( 7) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ 6 ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86 ________________ spring __11 __ 8 __ 4 __ ( 9) ___ 4*__11 __ 3 ___ (9) __ 9 ___ 11 __ 3 __ 9 ___ 8 ____ 10 _____ 91 ________________summer_10__ 6* __10__ (10) ___ 6*__ 9 __ 8 ___ ( 8) __10 ___ 7 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 10 ____106 ________________ autumn _10 __10 __10__(10) ___ 9 __10 __ 8*___(10) __10 ___ 7 __ 9 __ 9*___ 8 ___ 10 ____ 110 __ 393 ==========================================---================================== (left contest before summer portion) . . .  Stebo ____________winter__ 6 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 _____ 81  ________________ spring __10 __10__10 __ (10) ___11 __9 __11 __(11) __10 ___ 9 __11 __11 __11 ____10 _____123 __ (204)   RJay ____________winter___10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ 1 __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 _____ 86  ________________ spring __11 __ 11__11 __ (11) __10 __11__10 __(10) __11 ___ 5 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 11 ____121 __(207)

Updates on anomalies and forecasts ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ________ (7d) __________ 0.0 _ --5.3 _ --4.8 ___ +3.0 _ +2.6 _ +3.2 ___ +3.3 _ +3.2 _ +5.5 _______ (14d) _________+0.6 _ --1.3 _ +0.3 ___ +2.5 _ +2.4 _ +3.9 ___ +4.1 _ +3.3 _ +5.1 _______ (21d) _________--0.4 _ --2.7 _ --0.8 ___ +1.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 ___ +4.1 _ +2.1 _ +5.0 _______ (28d) _________+1.2_ +0.2 _ +1.8 ___ +5.4 _ +5.1 _ +3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +1.3 _ +3.7 _______ (p14d) _______ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.5 ___ +2.0 _ +2.8 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 _______ (p21d) _______ --0.4 _ --1.6 _ --0.6 ___ +0.8 _ +1.4 _ +2.6 ___ +3.3 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 _______ (p28d) _______ +2.2 _ +0.3 _ +1.1 ___ +6.0 _ +7.0 _ +4.0 ___ +6.0 _ +0.5 _ +3.0 _______ (p24d) ________ 0.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 15th___(p31d)________ +1.0 __0.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 22nd __ (p31d) _______ +2.0 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +5.0 _ +6.0 _ +4.0 ___ +6.0 _ +0.5 _ +3.0 29th __ (p31d) ________+2.0 _+1.0 _+2.5 ___ +5.0 _ +5.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.8 _ +0.5 _ +3.5 Final anomalies ______ +2.4 _+0.8 _+2.5 ___ +6.3 _ +5.9 _ +3.2 ___ +3.7 _ +0.7 _ +3.9 (8th) _ The following week looks quite variable with very mild followed by quite cold and back to milder before the end. Then the interval from the 15th to 24th looks rather cold in the east and near normal in the west. I went with some rather conservative assumptions in these projections. Really all forecasts seem to have some chance at this point. (15th) _ The forecasts for the past week were reasonably good and averaged an error of 1.1 deg. The coming week is looking somewhat colder than average, on balance, after a mild start in some eastern and central locations. It appears likely to remain rather mild in the west. Then the outlook period (22nd to 31st) from GFS looks generally mild and the provisionals shown are probably a bit conservative from that guidance. The days leading up to Christmas may be well into the 60s in the eastern states. There is a bit of a return to colder weather near the end of the run. I need me to be wrong. (22nd) _ The past week's forecast verified quite well (0.67 avg error). The coming week is expected to be very mild in the eastern and central states, rather cool for PHX and closer to average in SEA. The three days not covered by that outlook appear rather cold in the east and warming through the period in central states. I may post some provisional scoring tomorrow. Looks like I have gone too cold to have any chance, so it will be a battle of the Mid Atlantic men RodneyS and wxdude64. (29th) _ Watch for the grand finale of our close contest in the coming days. I won't spoil the suspense with preliminary scoring, we'll just go with the final results on New Years Day (and not necessarily all that early). Jan 2020 thread is available if you would like to continue. (31st - 1st) _ Overnight and on New Year's Day I will be updating the anomalies and the provisional scoring below. When I am finished that post, the annual results will be next up. The battle for first place is extremely close. The anomalies posted above are now all confirmed.

Forecasts for December 2019 For your interest, I have posted points differential against the current contest leader, RodneyS and also wxdude64 who is 40 points behind going into this month ... this tells you how many points more or less you could score relative to RodneyS and wxdude64 if you're right on or they are right on with forecasts. Actual values "outside" your forecast (e.g. you're predicting lower and it's even lower than your prediction) will count full value in this regard unless the anomalies get very large, then we could get into factored scoring systems. End of month anomaly values between the two forecasts being compared will have reduced impact on the differential. Chances are quite high there won't be this much separation in points either way (you're generally closer or the leader is generally closer to outcomes -- one or two will perhaps work against the rest). Note the three highest scores from November's annual update are all separated enough to give them leverage on each other. Should be an interesting conclusion to a great contest year. (note, it is possible but unlikely that you could gain more points than shown here if some stations go to max-60 scoring, but with the two leaders likely to score medium numbers of points in those cases, very unlikely that the math would work for anybody if that happens). With my colder forecasts, almost the entire field can pass me (currently third and 96 points behind RodneyS and 56 behind wxdude64) if I'm out to lunch (and it is lunch time). FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ pts diff (1st, 2nd) BKViking __________________+1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 ___ +0.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.0 ___ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 ___ 262, 168 wxdude64 _________________+1.7 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 ___ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 ___ +0.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.3 ___ 122, 000 DonSutherland.1 ___________+1.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +1.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ___ 134, 052 Scotty Lightning ____________+1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 114, 120 hudsonvalley21 ____________+0.9 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ___ +0.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.8 ___ +1.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 ___ 230, 168 ___ Consensus _____________ +0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ____ +0.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.7 ___ 108, 094 wxallannj __________________ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 ___ +1.9 _ +2.6 _ +2.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +1.2 ___ 172, 162 RodneyS ___________________ +0.7 _ --0.3 _ --0.3 ___ +2.6 _ +0.7 _ +2.4 ___ +0.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.6 ___ 000, 122 Tom _______________________ +0.5 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 ___ --0.3 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +0.6 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 ___ 134, 168 Jakkelwx ___________________+0.3 _ --0.2 _ --0.7 ___ --1.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.8 _ +0.5 _ +2.1 ___ 224, 286 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 166, 200 Roger Smith _______________ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.5 ___ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.0 ___ --2.0 ___ 0.0 _ --1.7 ___ 546, 552 ====================================================================================== Consensus is the median value, or mean of 5th and 6th ranked forecasts out of ten received. Welcome back Jakkelwx, and good luck everybody. __ Snowfall contest will be updated in place in the November thread __

I just hope it doesn't go full 1949-50 on us, extreme cold developed over my part of the world that winter and after a coldish start to winter it turned very mild in the east at least to mid-Feb before becoming more seasonable. I mention that winter because we are in a very unusual dry pattern here where the PNW meets western Canada. It appears to be breaking down a bit to cold and snowy. That was about the same transition that brought in the severe cold later in Dec 1949 and all of Jan 1950 which ran 15-20 (F) deg below normal in many parts of the west while Jan 1950 was a top ten mild month in the east. The storm track was eventually set up near Chicago running SW-NE. That lasted to mid-Feb then more of a cold pattern with coastal lows. I think we'll see at least a modified version of this in 2019-20 and a good start to winter in the east perhaps reversing form some time around or just after New Years.

Final adjustments to scoring have left the tables completed as of now, with RodneyS holding a rather slim 40 point advantage over wxdude64, and 89 points clear of third place RS. DonS is a further 115 points back or 204 behind the leader. These are probably all margins that could be made up from differences in December forecasts, not sure about the math of moving past everyone ahead but it should be a nail-biter for the three leaders for sure.