Roger Smith

Predict the anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline for on-time entries 06z Monday August 1st.

As noted in the table of entries, two locations (IAD, RIC) tied their existing seasonal max on Sunday 24th (from early climate reports, will check again later).

Today BWI has moved up to 98F (early climate report, will check again later). The other three locations did not advance today.

Final scoring for July 2022 SEA reported anomaly of +1.9 has to be checked later as two days missing data could alter the value in a later posting of the CF6. Most scores would change by the same amount also, high score(s) for SEA could be reduced slightly depending on what happens. My estimate is that the missing data will, if inserted into the table, change the anomaly to +1.6. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL so_whats_happening ___ 64 _ 96 _ 74 __ 234 __ 68 _ 86 _ 78 __232 __466 __ 90 _ 92 _ 80 __ 262 ___ 728 RodneyS _______________ 92 _ 76 _ 38 __ 206 __ 88 _ 98 _ 70 __ 256 __462 __ 78 _ 88 _ 84 __ 250 ___ 712 Tom _____________________66 _ 98 _ 68 __ 232 __ 56 _ 74 _ 86 __ 216 __448 __ 86 _ 82 _ 90 __ 258 ___ 706 wxallannj ________________72 _ 88 _ 56 __ 216 __ 68 _ 86 _ 92 __ 246 __462 __ 88 _ 98 _ 54 __ 240 ___ 702 ___ Consensus __________72 _ 84 _ 52 __ 208 __ 72 _ 84 _ 78 __ 234 __442 __ 86 _ 96 _ 72 __ 254 ___ 696 wxdude64 ______________74 _ 78 _ 46 __ 198 __ 90 _ 82 _ 78 __ 250 __448 __ 84 _ 94 _ 54 __ 232 ___ 680 RJay ____________________52 _ 90 _ 82 __ 224 __ 38 _ 64 _ 82 __ 184 __408 __ 98 _ 64 _ 98 __ 260 ___ 668 hudsonvalley21 _________80 _ 86 _ 50 __ 216 __ 90 _ 84 _ 58 __ 232 __448 __ 68 _ 90 _ 58 __ 216 ___ 664 Scotty Lightning ________72 _ 80 _ 52 __ 204 __ 78 _ 84 _ 82 __ 244 __448 __ 52 _ 96 _ 62 __ 210 ___ 658 BKViking________________76 _ 80 _ 50 __ 206 __ 46 _ 62 _ 90 __ 198 __404 __ 92 _ 84 _ 78 __ 254 ___ 658 StormchaserChuck! ____ 48 _ 84 _ 82 __ 214 __ 38 _ 78 _ 58 __ 174 __388 __ 92 _ 84 _ 92 __ 268 ___ 656 DonSutherland1 ________ 92 _ 68 _ 42 __ 202 __ 82 _ 94 _ 62 __ 238 __440 __ 58 _ 96 _ 62 __216 ___ 656 Roger Smith ____________88 _ 52 _ 28 __ 168 __ 88 _ 76 _ 62 __ 226 __394 __ 62 _ 86 _ 66 __ 214 ___608 ___ Normal ______________98 _ 60 _ 32 __ 190 __ 98 _ 86 _ 42 __ 226 __416 __ 42 _ 76 _ 62 __180 ___ 596 ====================================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (+0.1) _ Win for DonS and RodneyS (both +0.5) and Normal, loss for Roger Smith (-0.5) NYC (+2.0) _ did not qualify (third warmest forecast high score) BOS (+3.4) _ Win for RJay and StormchaserChuck (+2.5). ORD (-0.1) _ Win for wxdude64 and hudsonvalley21 (both +0.4) and Normal, loss for Roger Smith (-0.7) ATL (+0.7) _ Win for RodneyS (+0.8), loss for Roger Smith (-0.5) and Normal (0.0) IAH (+2.9) _ Win for wxallannj (+2.5) DEN (+2.9) _ Win for RJay (+3.0) PHX (+1.2) _ did not qualify, outcome close to consensus forecasts. SEA (+1.9) _ Win for RJay (+2.0)* _______ *Data incomplete, result may change if SEA finishes below +1.7.

RIC moved up one degree on July 21st to 98 F (table edited). No changes yet to the other three locations. BWI tied their established seasonal max of 96F from May 31st on July 22nd for the second time (also June 17th).

Monday's maximum temperatures in France are running close to GFS forecast projections so this tends to indicate that 40-41 will likely happen in parts of England on Tuesday. The highest value I saw in England on Monday was 38 C at Cambridge, with 37 at a number of locations including around greater London. Ireland also came very close to breaking their all-time record on Monday, which is a mere 33.3 C from June, 1887. An amateur station in Dublin equalled that value but I think the official stations will top out a little lower. There has always been some doubt expressed about the situation of the thermometer (in Kilkenny) for the 1887 record, in 2006 it was 32.8 C for a more reliable record. Here's a link to the maximum temperatures for France from meteociel. You can zoom in on regions using the menu available at the link. These are preliminary values just in since the period for them is 06z to 18z. Note several locations between 42 and 43 C or around 108-109 F. https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=

Active shortwave moving inland tonight along the US-Canada border will run into that extreme humidity, some heavy rainfalls likely by Tuesday in that region. It has been quite dry here for the past few weeks, looking forward to some late night thunderstorm activity here, clearing out Monday afternoon. Speaking of the high dew points, I seem to recall some very high dews in July 1995 around Iowa and Illinois. Corn sweat, I believe it is called.

Table of forecasts for Summer Max 2022 (updates now appearing here) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ______________ 104 __ 103 __ 101 ___ 98 __ 102 _ 108 __ 105 _ 119 __ 95 Scotty Lightning __________104 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 105 _ 110 ____ 97 _ 121 __ 90 DonSutherland1 __________ 104 __ 100 __ 101 ___100 ___ 99 _ 105 __ 100 _ 118 __ 92 so_whats_happening _____ 102 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 103 _ 121 __ 93 RJay ______________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 105 __ 101 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ________________ 102 ___99 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 BKViking __________________ 100 ___99 ___ 97 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 101 __ 100 _ 119 __ 94 Tom ________________________ 99 ___99 ___ 97 ___102 __ 102 _ 107 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________ 98 ___98 ___ 97 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 102 _ 119 __ 93 wxallannj ___________________98 ___97 ___ 96 ___ 97 ___ 98 _ 100 ___ 96 _ 118 __ 92 Consensus (means) ________101 __100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 105 __ 100 _ 119 __ 93 ___ to Aug 9 _______________ 99 __ 97 __100 _____ 99 __ 99 __105 _____101 _ 115 _ 95 ============================== Anomalies to 12th _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___________________________-1.4 __+0.8 __+1.2 __ +0.3 __+1.1 __+3.9 __ +2.7 __+2.8 __+0.2* ___ (to 22nd) _____________-0.1 __+1.7 __ +2.5 ___ 0.0 __+0.5__+3.8 __ +4.2 __+3.6 __-0.4* __ (p29th from GFS) ______ 0.0 __+1.5 __+2.0 __ +1.5 __+1.5__+4.0 __ +3.0 __+3.0 __+1.0 __ (p31st from GFS) ______+0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 __ +3.0 __ +3.0 __+1.5 __ +2.0 __ final anomalies ________ +0.1 _ +2.0 _ +3.4 __-0.1 _ +0.7 __ +2.9 __ +2.9 __ +1.2 __ +1.9 ___________ * SEA has missing data on 4th-5th, actual anomaly may be closer to 0.0 * SEA still has the missing data, -0.4 may be -0.5 after this is sorted out ================================== 13th _ Projections are based on subdued but above normal warmth in east and continued heat in west. At the moment these projections would score 738 out of 900 for consensus. 23rd _ New projections blend expected eastern heat with later near average, and sustained western warmth, the current provisionals would score 656 out of 900 for consensus. 28th _ Adjusted PHX end of month estimate to +2.0 due to some rather cool days there this past week, monsoon thunderstorms in the vicinity and lots of cloud. Hotter here at the US-Canada border than in most of the desert southwest. 30th _ Adjusted DEN and IAH down slightly to +3.0 each ... will be adjusting and finalizing all anomalies over the next 2-3 days. 31st _ 1st ... Final anomalies are now confirmed, SEA has posted a final anomaly of +1.9 but the CF6 has two missing days that I suspect may appear within a day or two and drop the average closer to +1.6 or so. Will score from +1.9 for now but may change that later. (NYC 79.5 4.55" for tables) 1.85" 18th

Something comparable might be the extreme cold of winter 1917-18 to the record heat of August 1918. Although that was less sustained than the warmth of Dec 2015. NYC had the example also of the heavy snowfall in late Dec 1947 to the record heat in late August of 1948. Both 1944 and 1948 provide examples of summers when not much significant heat occur before late July and then a lot of heat comes in August. An even faster reversal of large magnitude was 1976-77 when a cold regime that persisted from October 1976 to January 1977 flipped during February to a very warm spring in 1977 (albeit with one brief reversal to anomalous late cold around May 8-9).

No late forecasts, yay! (I hate those late penalties) ... Table of forecasts for July 2022 FORECASTER __________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck! ____ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.5 ___+3.0 _+1.8 _ +0.8 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _ +1.5 RJay ____________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___+3.0 _+2.5 _ +2.0 ___+3.0 _+3.0 _ +2.0 so_whats_happening ___ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.4 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 Tom _____________________+1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.4 wxallannj ________________+1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +2.5 ___ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ -0.4 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ Consensus __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 ___ +2.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.5 wxdude64 ______________+1.4 _ +0.9 _ +0.7 ___ +0.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +0.9 _ -0.4 BKViking ________________ +1.3 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ___+2.6 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___+2.5 _ +2.0 _+0.8 hudsonvalley21 __________+1.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ___ +0.4 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ -0.2 RodneyS ________________ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.3 ___+0.5 _+0.8 _ +1.4 ___ +1.8 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 DonSutherland1 _________ +0.5 _ +0.4 _ +0.5 ___+0.8 _+1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.4 __ 0.0 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ____________ -0.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.2 ___ -0.7 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 =========================================== Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coldest for IAH, DEN and PHX.

===<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-June 2022) _______________>>>=== Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. With most scores similar in June, there was only one set of changes in ranks; hudsonvalley21 (now 6th) and wxallannj (7th) moved ahead of BKViking (now 8th, although only two points behind 7th place). Consensus moved up closer to second place but did not change its rank, also Normal remained between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (3467), based on 3/2 times actual score, and with that he would be around the same total as our 8th ranked total. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________393 _431 _481 __1305 __385 _449_ 318__1152 _2457 __402 _484 _385 __1271 ____3728 DonSutherland1 ________ 452 _444 _470__1366__422 _384 _226__1032 _2398 __382 _484 _428__1294____3692 ___ Consensus ___________416 _428 _436 __1280__370 _428 _278__1076 _2356__428 _486 _397 __1311 ____3667 Tom _____________________ 419 _421 _403 __1243__384 _413 _375__1172 _2415 __449 _425 _312 __1186 ____3601 so_whats_happening ____368 _398 _462 __1228__381 _420_ 278__1079 _2307 __378 _488 _416 __1282____3589 RodneyS ________________ 392 _382 _412 __1186 __278 _430 _324__1032 _2218 __468 _476 _400__1344____3562 hudsonvalley21 __________382 _412 _454 __1248__346 _392 _294__1032 _2280__384 _470 _380 __1234____3514 wxallannj ________________358 _360 _392 __1110 __350 _386 _288__1024 _2134 __462 _478 _416 __1356____3490 BKViking ________________ 414 _418 _410 __1242__352 _400 _244 __996 _2238 __428 _460 _362 __1250____3488 RJay _____________________414 _430 _416___1260__387 _406 _276__1069 _ 2329 __382 _410 _309 __1101 ____3430 Scotty Lightning _________374 _398 _418 __1190 __300 _392 _300__ 992 _ 2182 __404 _450 _300__1154____ 3336 _____ Normal _____________390 _406 _388 __1184 __298 _362 _280 __940 _ 2124 __408 _394 _346__1148____3272 Roger Smith _____________ 300 _308 _238 __ 846 __224 _ 298 _266 __788 _1634 __424 _456 _409__1289____2923 Stormchaser Chuck (4/6)_286 _290 _285 __861 __260 _ 336 _190 __ 786 __1647 __212 _289 _163 __ 664____2311 __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 3467 total points. =========================================== Best Forecasts _ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan DonSutherland1 __________3^___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____ 1 ____ 2 __ Feb,May ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ______________________ 1^___ 1 ___ 1 ____2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0 RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 0 BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 __ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred five times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May, once for BOS in June and once for SEA in June.) (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 39 of 54 forecasts qualify, 16 warmest and 23 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**-0___ 12-2 (11-2) DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4-0*_ 1-0^_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _____ 8-0 (6.75 - 0) Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 ____ 7-1 Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2-0^_1-0_ 1-0*_ ---- ___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 4-0 (3.5 - 0) RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0*_ 1*-0 __ 4-0 (3.0 -1) ____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 ___ 4-0 RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ 1-0*_--- _ ---- ___ 2-0 (0.75 - 0) so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1-1* _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-1 (0.5 - 1) wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- _ --- _ 1*-0 ___ 1-1 (0.5 -1) BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0) Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- ___ 0-0 ===============================

-0.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.2 ___ -0.7 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 (tried to message Scotty L, his in-box must be full, did send a reminder to wxdude64, hope it all works out _ otherwise, thanks for your entries)

Just a heads up for NYC crew who enter the temperature forecast contest, the long weekend approaching will pose a challenge for getting in before the deadline, so post your forecast before you start to enjoy the three or four day weekend.

Final Scoring for June 2022 FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS Roger Smith ____________ 80 _ 80 _100__260 __ 62 _ 64 _ 82 __ 208__ 468 _ 70 _88 _ 92 __ 250 ___ 718 wxallannj ________________70 _ 60 _ 66 __ 196 __ 78 _ 60 _ 62 __ 200__ 396 _100_ 84 _ 92 __276 ___ 672 hudsonvalley21 _________ 82 _ 76 _ 94 __ 252 __ 70 _ 44 _ 40 __ 154 __ 406 _ 86 _ 92 _ 82 __ 260 ___ 666 ___ Consensus __________ 72 _ 66 _ 78 __ 216 __ 76 _ 60 _ 50 __ 186__ 402 _ 86 _ 88 _ 78 __ 252 ___ 654 Scotty Lightning ________ 74 _ 68 _ 78 __ 220 __ 88 _ 66 _ 66 __ 220__ 440 _ 80 _ 64 _ 62 __ 206 ___ 646 BKViking ________________ 70 _ 68 _ 76 __ 214 __ 82 _ 56 _ 46 __ 184__ 398 _ 96 _ 80 _ 58 __ 234 ___ 632 RJay _______ (-1%) ______ 73*_ 67*_ 77*__ 217 __ 48 _ 55*_65*__ 168__ 385 _ 89*_ 93*_61*__ 243 ___ 628 RodneyS ________________ 72 _ 66 _100__ 238 __ 30 _ 64 _ 54 __ 148__ 386 _ 72 _ 72 _ 82 __ 226 ___ 612 wxdude64 ______________ 50 _ 42 _ 62 __ 154 __ 86 _ 66 _ 56 __ 208 __ 362 _ 92 _ 96 _ 58 __ 246 ___ 608 DonSutherland1 _________88 _ 74 _ 82 __ 244 __ 52 _ 38 _ 34 __ 124__ 368 _ 64 _ 84 _ 88 __ 236 ___ 606 so_whats_happening ____52 _ 50 _ 66 __ 168 __ 80 _ 58 _ 42 __ 180__ 348 _ 86 _ 92 _ 74 __ 252 ___ 600 ___ Normal ______________ 94 _ 88 _ 98 _ 280 __ 68 _ 36 _ 26 __ 130 __ 410 _ 60 _ 44 _ 82 __ 186 ___ 596 Tom _____________________ 72 _ 64 _ 80 __ 216 __ 72 _ 54 _ 36 __ 162__ 378 _ 70 _ 58 _ 86 __ 214 ___ 592 Stormchaser Chuck! ____ 30 _ 24 _ 50 __ 104 __ 98 _ 76 _ 36 __ 210__ 314 _ 74 _ 92 _ 40 __ 206 ___ 520 ____________________________________________ Extreme forecasts DCA (-0.3) is a win for coldest forecast (Don S) at +0.3 and also for Normal. NYC and BOS are wins for coldest forecasts, Roger Smith for both (+0.4, -0.1) and tied with RodneyS (-0.1) for BOS, (and Normal for NYC). ORD (+1.6) and ATL (+3.2) are wins for hottest forecasts (StormchaserChuck +1.5, +2.0), and IAH (+3.7) also (Roger Smith +2.8) DEN (+2.0) cooled off near the end and fell out of the extreme forecast category with the highest score going to third highest forecast. PHX (+2.8) also slipped below the necessary outcome for an extreme forecast and high score also went to the third highest forecast. SEA (-0.9) is a shared win for wxallannj and Roger Smith with coldest forecasts (-0.5). ========================================

Predict the temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020 averages for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Will be sending out reminders as I see the timing of the July 4th weekend is posing a danger of very late entries that I don't want to have to penalize. Reminders on the 29th so if you want to save me some effort, enter by 28th you can always edit your entry on the 30th. I don't actually take down the forecasts until the 1st. And happy fourth of July.

Year overall has some similarity to 1918, cold January, rather mild February, mild March, warm spells in April-May, June up and down ... so the rest of the way it was transitional to hot in Juily, very hot in August (especially first half), much more variable in September, and relatively warm rest of the year, with a generally mild winter 1918-19. See any parallels, Chuck? or anyone? (it was near a solar peak although not a really strong one, don't know how it stacked up for SOI).

Yes, for NYC, September had the hottest day in 1953 (2nd 102F), 1881 (7th 101F), 1929 (3rd, 99F), 1983 (11th, 99F), 1931 (11th, 99F, tied with 7th Aug), 1895 (23rd 97F), 2015 (8th 97F), 1921 (3rd 96F), 1932 (2nd 96F), 1914 (22nd 95F, tied with 27th May), 1915 (9th, 94F), 1897 (10th 93F tied with 6th July), 1970 (22nd 94F), 2014 (2nd 92F), also 1927 (15th 92F tied with four other days all in July, and it was also 90F on Oct 2nd 1927), and 1884 (91F 8th and 9th tied with 21st June and 20th Aug). So that was 16 of 153 years so far with at least a tie of the summer maximum in September. I listed them in order of their temperatures. The latest date was the 23rd in 1895, that year had a four-day heat wave May 31 to June 3 with 96F highs. This year NYC hit 93F on May 31, the second hottest reading since that record value from 1895 was tied in 1939. It was 94F in 1987 and that year's eventual maximum was 97F from the previous day (May 30th).

Since the subject came up, in terms of all-time records valid now for NYC 1869-2022, the shortest turnaround times between primary records (high max, low min) appear to be these: 3 days _ 80F Oct 20 1969 to 32F Oct 23 1969 (and 31F 24th) _ 5" snow in Toronto on Oct 22nd during that transition. 3 days _ 25F Apr 9 1977 to 90F Apr 12 1977 ... a similar event took place the previous year, but 25F on Apr 12 was not a record low, while 91F on Apr 17th was broken in 2002, 96F and 92F the next two days remain records. 4 days _ 96F June 23-24 1888 (both records) to 54F, 52F June 28, 29 (both record lows) 4 days _ 89F May 13 1956 (and high min 69F) to 39F May 17 1956 __ double transition in 1890 __ (see 1967 below, similar sequence a bit later in March-April) 5, 9 days _ 67 F Feb 27 1890 to 7F Mar 7 1890 (nine days) then back to 71F in five days Mar 12 1890 5 days _ 76F Mar 23 1923 to 13F Mar 28 (and 10F Mar 29) 1923 (also record lows 31st, Apr 1st) 5 days _ 39F Oct 7 1954 to 86F Oct 12 (also record high minima Oct 1-3 for a four-day initial downward plunge before the five day rise) ... this all followed by Hurricane Hazel Oct 15 1954. 6 days _ 27F Nov 6 1879 to 76F Nov 12 1879 (at the time three consecutive record lows all still valid, followed in six days by four record highs, the last three have all since been broken) 6 days _ 96F May 27 1880 (third consecutive daily high) to 48F June 2 1880 6 days _ 99F June 25 1943 to 52F July 1 1943. ___ This had been a four day transition from 98F on 27th which lost its record standing in 1966 (101F). 7 days _ 88F Sep 28 1881 to 35F Oct 5 (87F Oct 1 had been a record at the time, broken in 1927 88F, so this had also been a four day transition -- Oct 1 1881 still holds the high minimum record of 72F ... there was another record low of 36F on Oct 6 then a temporary record high on Oct 8th (80F) which lasted until 1916 (84F)). 7 days _ 95F Sep 22 1914 to 42F Sep 29 1914. Another record high 83F Oct 11th later broken by 1949 (85F). 7 days _ 101F July 18 1953 to 57F July 25 1953. (July 17th 100F also a record high) 8 days _ 91F Oct 10 1939 to 35F Oct 18 1939 8 days _ 51F June 13 1953 to 97F June 21 1953. (June 20 also 97, not a record though) 10 days _ 41F May 25 1925 to 99F June 4, 1925 (94F June 3 was one short of 1895 record) 10 days _ 98F Aug 10 1949 to 55F Aug 20 1949 _ 11th was 99F but that was not a record (102F in 1944). -------------- There are also some short transitions that involve secondary records (involving high min or low max sometimes with primary records, sometimes with each other). The shortest interval applies to Mar 8 to 10 1987 which went from record high max (76F 8th) to record low max (28F 10th). Another rapid change in three days, was from low max 62F June 22, 1952 to high max 99F June 25. The sequence there was 64, 62, 64, 85, 99, 100. Mar 3 2009 had a low max of 26F and Mar 7 had a high min of 51F. The min (12F) to max (70F) differential was impressive but neither were date records. May 12, 1881 (93F) still a valid high max was followed by two record low maxima within five days (52F 17th, 53F 18th). A similar occurrence happened in the autumn of that year, as noted in the first listing of records since it qualified there also. In July 2013, record high minima of 81F, 83F July 18-19 were followed by a record low max of 68F on July 25th. More recently, record low maxima of 51F on May 29-30 2021 were quickly followed by a high minimum of 76F on June 7 (June 6 also 76F but not a record). This was very similar to 1945 when a long string of record low max and min ending June 5th was followed by a record high minimum of 76F on the 15th and maxima of 92 to 93 each day 14th to 18th. A low max of 61F on June 7th 1891 was followed by two record highs (still valid) of 96F, 97F on 15th and 16th. A faster transition from max of 56F on June 6, 1894 to temporary record 90F on the 11th looks less impressive now that the eventual high maximum was 95F in 1973. Two readings of 99F (June 30, July 1, 1964), only the first a record, were followed within eight days by a record low maximum of 63F on July 9th. No record cold was involved but there were fast transitions from very cold to very warm weather in Feb 1930, and from very warm to cold in Feb 1946, both cases had record highs but not record lows. In Feb 1930, Feb 16-17 was quite cold (20F, 7F and 26F, 7F) then by Feb 19th it was 57F, and 20th 69F (still a record), followed by more record warmth including 75F on Feb 25th. In 1946, on the other hand, it went from a record high of 63F on Feb 14th to a reading of 14F around midnight 15th-16th then back up to 55F by the 17th. That was all followed by quite a warm March so the warm signal won out there. The temperature drop on Nov 12-13 1911 is remembered as being one of the largest, taking a plunge from a high of 69F to a low of 26F, the highs were 69, 33. Only the cold value is a low maximum record though. A record high of 67F on Dec 14, 1881 was followed within two days by a high of only 29F and low of 18F (not records but quite a drop). One of the fastest warmups came in late December 1875. Lows of 2F and 1F on 19th and 20th, neither quite records within the "starter era" with -1 and -3 in 1884 on those dates, were followed by record highs of 59F on 22nd (later broken) and 64F on 23rd (also later broken). It then stayed very mild through January 1876 after what had been persistent record cold in late November and parts of December 1875. Similar flips occurred from Sept 1947 and 1963 (cold) to Oct 1947 and 1963 (very warm) but differences between records are more widely separated than we are tracking in this post (both Octobers were quite warm by the 10th but set most of their records later, both Septembers had several record lows near the end and 1947 also set a record low on October 1st). Another month to month transition worth noting without any adjacent records would be Jan-Feb 1984 (cold to very mild, then back to cold in March). The somewhat slower transition from record warmth in March-early April 1945 to variable then very cold at end of May into early June was also a full tour of the anomaly spectrum. A near record high of 98F on Aug 2, 1975 and 96F on Aug 3rd and a record high minimum of 78F on the third were quickly followed by a record low max of 64F on Aug 7th (lowest minimum with that only 60F). Aug 10, 1979 (95F) while not that close to a record the warmest day of that year was followed within two days by a very cool day (64F, 57F). Earlier in the record, Aug 7 1931 (99F, not a record) was followed on the 11th by a record low max of 68F. There may have been other short transitions that involved valid records at the time but not valid now. A record high of 98F on July 8, 1890 (surpassed in 1993) was followed within two days by a record low of 55F (max 70F not a record after 1917) on July 10, 1890. June 29-30 1919 had record lows of 52F and 53F (still valid), July 3rd (97F, not a record in 1919) July 4th (99F a record to 1949) and July 5th (98F a record to 1999) made for a very fast transition. Oct 12 1886 (78F) was a record at the time broken in 1928, and 33F on 17th five days later still is a record. 76F on Oct 11th 1887 was also a temporary record and was followed in just two days by the still-valid but tied record low max of 49F. Also similar, 70F on Nov 4, 1903 later beaten out as a record was followed within three days by the still valid low maximum 41F (7th). In the eventually record cold November of 1880, a record high of 68F on 11th since broken, was followed by record cold as soon as the 19th (record low max 31F) and it stayed record cold for most of the following week. In 1951, record mild weather Dec 8-9 (the surviving records are high minima) was followed by near-record cold within ten days (64F 7th and 8th, 8F and 9F 17th, 18th). July 16 1926 has the record low of 56F, July 21 1926 held the record high (100F) until beaten in 1930 (102F). In 1930 the record low was 57F on July 15th but the 1930 high of 102F is no longer a record either (1977 104F). Another fast transition in the summer of 1930 was from record 96F on Aug 5th to record low 55F on Aug 13th, but the record high was later broken by 1944 (101F). Mar 11, 1967 had a (then) record high of 72F followed by a record low min of 8F on the 19th (a record low max of 20F on the 18th also), and it was back up to a record high of 81F on April 2nd. Another example is from a low max record still valid 41F Apr 15, 1885 to a high of 81F on Apr 22, a record broken in 1962 (which itself almost duplicated the change with a high of only 45F on the 15th). A shorter transition followed with a record of 89F on Apr 28, 1962 (since broken) followed by the date low max of 45F on May 2nd. (four days) By May 19, 1962 the monthly maximum of 99F was recorded, following another low max on May 8th of 49F. June 20 1893 (95F) has been overtaken by 98F in 1923, but at the time went from record high to low max and min (63F, 56F, June 26) in six days with another record low 54F on the 28th. May 2-3 1913 had record highs of 89F later beaten in recent years, and a still valid record low of 36F on May 11th. May 5 1919 had a record high of 88F later edged out, followed by a record low max of 48F on the 10th. May 10, 1895 had a high of 90F, one deg short of the current record, and a low minimum of 39F on May 13th (still valid). That was followed by record highs on May 31 and June 1 (96F) which had been preceded by more temporary records on May 29 and 30. May 23 1902 (86F) was at that time a record high, and 43F on May 29 1902 is still the record low. This couplet is no longer valid as the record for May 23 has increased to 94 (1964) but in that year the temperature on May 29 was only 49F (a larger overall drop). May 24 1884 had a record high of 86F (since overtaken) and a still-valid record high min (70F) followed by record low max and min on the 29th (51, 43) and another record low on the 30th (42F). The record low of 55F for July 4 (1986) was followed by two days at 98F on 6th and 7th, both tied or set records that would fall in 1999 and 2010. Records of 92F, 93F Sep 9-10 1895 (since broken) were followed by a near-record low max of 62F on the 12th, quite a fast drop (but the record even then was 60F (1873). So in other words there are numerous occasions when the temperature flipped from one extreme to the other within a week. This is not a comprehensive list when it comes to the 9 to 15 day range, I left out several less spectacular but valid cases in that time range. I tried to find anything shorter than eight days but would need to validate as the work was done from color coded entries in max and min logs in my research file.

All four locations beat or tied their seasonal max to date yesterday, values updated in the table above.

After the first half of June, anomalies and seasonal max values ... _________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA 16th _____ (15d anom) __________+1.7 _+1.3 _+1.7 ___+0.4 _+3.1 _+4.0 ___ +2.2 _+4.5 _-2.1 26th _____ (25d anom) _________ +0.1 _-0.7 _-0.4 ___+1.8 _+3.8 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.2 _-1.8 16th _____ (p30d anom GFS) ___+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+4.0 _-1.0 26th _____ (p30d anom) ________+0.5 _ 0.0 _ 0.0____+2.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.0 _-0.5 30th/1st __ final anomalies _____-0.3 _ -0.6 _-0.1 ___ +1.6 _+3.2 _+3.7 ___ +2.0 _ +2.8 _-0.9 to July 10 __ Seasonal max ____ 99 __ 93 __ 92 _____ 99 __ 99 __104 _____101 _ 114 _ 91 (later updates are in July thread now) 16th _ End of month projections are basically persistence of mostly warm trends established so far, modified by somewhat different signals emerging over the next two weeks; worth noting that the SEA annual max was first established Apr 7 and only tied once in June so far. (76F on June 21) Consensus would score 686/900 on these projections; most forecasters would be close to that score as errors would balance out to some extent. Slightly higher estimated scores are those for wxallannj and wxdude64 but the range is quite small overall, and probably no more precise than the margin of error in the estimates. Normal would score 490/900. 26th _ SEA finally getting some hot weather, 87F on Sat 25th, likely to be hotter 26th and perhaps 27th. BOS may also break 90 today (26th). New updates for anomalies and projections, preliminary scoring underway. (update, SEA 91 on 27th, and BOS now at 90F 26th). 30th _ Final anomalies posted overnight, scoring updated.

Perhaps a long-range clue in this news item -- Yellowstone River flooding sees that river higher than at any point in recorded history, 1918 was the previous high. Assuming that to be in the late spring flood season also, 1918 became quite a hot summer and holds the record of 104 F for August. Late July to mid-August was the hottest portion of the summer; June 1918 and early July had some rather cool weather at times.

Any thoughts as to heavy rainfall potential tomorrow into early Thursday? Northern NJ, e PA, lower Hudson valley look prime to see 2-4 inch totals (over 24-36h). Maybe more like 1-1.5" in NYC metro. That earlier question about radar echoes -- looks legit from satellite, developing feeder bands into the developing low. That low is why I think there could be locally heavy rainfalls, frontal wave likely to develop near MD/PA border moving towards TTN and EWR, areas north of its track would see heaviest amounts.

As is the custom of this thread, updated files are made available on the Net-weather equivalent thread (they are too large to download here). https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/4/#comments The only changes made to them since the last time they were available would be the addition of daily data and various other monthly data for March, April and May 2022.

Severe heat is building in Texas but it isn't spreading northeast, it seems to be wanting to back-build into the Great Basin region later in the week. The first half of June looks to be rather cool in the eastern U.S. with anomalies in the -1 to -3 F range.

It is supposed to develop to TS status later according to forecast discussion, if so, will count 1/0/0, if not, outside the scope of the contest.