Roger Smith

If you scroll back to the post before the scoring updates, you'll find the final scoring results for the 2022 Seasonal Max contest. Congrats RJay who won with a total of just 11 error points for the nine locations.

===<<< __________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Sep 2022) _____________>>>=== Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. Despite fairly close scoring in September, RodneyS managed to move into third place ahead of so_whats_happening who is now fourth, and RodneyS also passed Consensus which is now a rank lower (between third and fourth). Tom is fifth and Hudsonvalley21 moves into sixth ahead of wxallannj who is now seventh; BKViking moved closer to the seventh position but remains 8th. Normal remains between 10th and 11th and Stormchaser Chuck's prorated score has dropped from equivalent to 8th to 10th (still ahead of me but now also behind Normal). FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________633 _657 _647 __1937 __649 _679_ 548__1876_3813 __606 _716 _577 __1899 ____5712 DonSutherland1 ________ 718 _664 _624__2006__678 _610 _472__1760 _3766 __522 _746 _650 __1918 ____5684 RodneyS ________________ 654 _592 _558__1804__534 _720 _566__1820 _3624 __690 _732 _622__2044____5668 ___ Consensus ___________642 _646 _598 __1886__622 _652 _504__1778 _3664__632 _722 _627 __1981 ____5645 so_whats_happening ____610 _630 _634__1874__621 _654_ 504__1779 _ 3653 __ 588 _712 _670 __1970 ____5623 Tom _____________________ 635 _653 _573 __1861__622 _631 _615__1868 _3729 __643 _619 _530 __ 1792 ____5521 hudsonvalley21 __________606 _650 _612 __1868__594 _612 _494__1700 _3568__576 _708 _562 __ 1846 ____5414 wxallannj ________________558 _578 _552 __1688 __576 _560 _506__1642 _3330 __686 _690 _662 __2038____5368 BKViking ________________ 632 _640 _578 __1850__554 _588 _458__1600 _3450 __650 _658 _598 __1906 ____5356 RJay _____________________588 _652 _636 __1876__569 _602 _460__1631 _3507 __620 _564 _565 __1749 ____5256 Scotty Lightning _________632 _620 _582 __1834 __568 _596 _524__1688 _3522 __548 _686 _484__1718____5240 _____ Normal _____________662 _596 _532 __1790 __562 _628 _516 __1706 _ 3496 __502 _610 _512__1624____5120 Roger Smith _____________ 540 _488 _366 __1394 __476 _500 _466 __1442 _2836 __668 _692 _657__2017____4853 Stormchaser Chuck (6/9)_360 _400 _389 __1149 __350 _ 438 _282 _1070 _2219 __380 _461 _291 __1132____3351 __ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 5026 total points. ========================================= __ Best Forecasts __ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Jan DonSutherland1 __________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____3 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May RodneyS _________________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 2 ___3 ___ 2___ 2*___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ____ 1 __ Sep ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 1 __ Jul Tom ______________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 2 ____ 0 BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr Scotty Lightning __________ 2**__ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 4 ____ 2 __Jun, Aug Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked. (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 59 of 81 forecasts qualify, 25 warmest and 34 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 __ 16-5 (14-5) RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 ___10-2 (8.0 -2) DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 9-0 (7.25 - 0) ____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0 __ 9-1 Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 8-1 (7.5 - 1) Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- __ 6-1 (4.25 - 1) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0) Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _ 5-0 (3.5 - 0) so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- __ 3-0 (2.5 - 0) hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- __ 3-1 (2.0 - 1) wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- __3-2 (2.0 -1) BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- __ 1-0 (0.25 - 0) =============================== (Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

-0.8 _ -1.0 _ -1.3 _ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ +0.2 _ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.8

I wasn't thinking of that, but what's happening with the first frost contest?

This reminds me of Charley (2004) in terms of quickly changing track shifting east (and therefore landfall south). I can remember talk about Tampa Bay being the landfall quite close to the final 12-18 hour tracking of Charley. Then it shifted to a landfall at Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. A few days ago this was heading for Cedar Key if I recall, now it may not even make it to Sarasota before landfall. There are good things about this, a full storm surge and strongest cat-3 wind gusts in Tampa Bay would be a lot worse than a backside impact there. But all regions of west Florida need to be on high alert of course.

Predict the anomalies (relative to 1991-2020) in F deg for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline is 06z Saturday 1st of October.

I can't see these values being exceeded now, so this is probably the contest wrap ... Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ Errors to date ____ TOTALS _01 __LittleVillageWx _ (21) ______ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 2 _02 __WinterWxLuvr (9) ________ 100 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 3 _03 __tplbge _ (19) _______________98 _ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 5 _04 __87storms _ (7) ___________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 6 _05 __Weather53 _ (17) __________99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 6 __ tiebreaker 04/05 is 1st higher dep _06 __GramaxRefugee _ (5) _____ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 _07 __Eskimo Joe _ (10) _________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 06/07 is order of entry _08 __NorthArlington101 _(1) ____101 __ 98 __ 99 _ 102 _______ 2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 07/08 is 1st higher dep _09 __biodhokie _ (6) ____________99 _ 101 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 08/09 is order of entry _10 __WxWatcher007 _ (25) _____99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 09/10 is order of entry _11 __toolsheds _ (13) ___________99 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 8 _12 __nw baltimore wx (15) _____100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 9 _13 __peribonca _ (2) ____________99 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 9 __ tiebreaker 12/13 is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2) _14 __CAPE __ (24) ______________101 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 ________ 9 __ tiebreaker 13/14 is 1st higher dep _15 __HighStakes _ (26) _________101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 10 _16 __Rhino16 _ (12) _____________101 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker 15/16 is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2) _17 __WxUSAF __ (27) __________ 100 __ 99 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker 16/17 is order of entry _18 __RickinBaltimore (14) ______100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 11 _19 __nj2va ___ (8) _______________99 _ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _ 5 _______ 11 __ tiebreaker 18/19 is 1st higher dep _ 20 __Contest means __________100.4_ 100.5_ 101.3_ 101.9 _____ 1.4 _ 3.5 _2.3 _3.9 ______ 11.1 _20 __yoda __ (23) _______________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 2 _ 4 ______ 12 _21 __Wxdavis5784 _ (11) ________98 _ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 4 _ 4 ______ 13 _22 __StormchaserChuck! (4) ___ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 4 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 14 _23 __wxdude64 _ (18) __________101 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 6 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker 22/23 is 1st higher dep _24 __mattie g _ (16) ____________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 6 _ 3 _ 4 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker 23/24 is 2nd higher dep (4 vs 3) _25 __PrinceFrederickWx _(3) ___102 _ 100 _ 104 _ 103 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 5 _ 5 ______ 16 _26 __Roger Smith _ (20) ________ 104 _ 106 _ 105 _ 107 _____ 5 _ 9 _ 6 _ 9 ______ 29 _27 __George BM _ (22) _________ 108 _ 109 _ 110 _ 110 ______ 9 _12 _11 _12 ______ 44 ____________________________________ Tiebreaker info relates to the entry above, explaining why the entry with the note is ranked below that one. In one case a rank is a combination of two different tie breakers relating to entries above then below _________________ ____________________ Congrats to LittleVillageWx with a one-point win over WinterWxLuvr (will keep an eye on temps just in case but I don't foresee this changing)

Now at 9/3/1, Ian forecast to change this to 9/4/2 eventually. That is if Gaston and Hermine die out as TS.

I would say you will have the center passing very close to you around 3 hours from now let's say 0830z. I estimate it is just east of Canso NS at this time, heading NNW. There's going to be a nasty storm surge at Louisbourg which faces southeast.

Final scores for September 2022 These scores are based on end of month anomalies listed in the previous post above. . FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS RodneyS ______________________86 _ 80 _ 66 __ 232 __ 88 _ 94_ 84 __ 266__ 498 __ 78 _ 78 _ 76 __ 232 ____ 730 DonSutherland1 ______________ 84 _ 76 _ 52 __ 212 __ 98 _ 70 _100 __ 268__ 480 __ 42 _ 98 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 712 wxdude64 ____________________80 _ 76 _ 58 __ 214 __ 94 _ 90 _ 92 __ 276 __ 490 __ 50 _ 84 _ 84 __ 218 ____ 708 ___ Normal ____________________94 _ 94 _ 92__ 280 __ 78 _ 94 _ 96 __ 268__ 548 __ 16 _ 62 _ 56 __ 134 ____ 682 ___ Consensus _______________ 68 _ 62 _ 48 __ 178 __ 98 _ 82 _ 96 __ 276 __ 454 __ 48 _ 86 _ 88 __ 222 ____ 676 so_whats_happening _________78 _ 76 _ 50 __ 204 __ 88 _ 80 _ 92 __ 260 __ 464 __ 40 _ 76 _ 94__ 210 ____ 674 Scotty Lightning ______________86 _ 86 _72 __ 244 __ 98 _ 64 _ 74 __ 236 __ 480 __ 36 _ 92 _ 64 __192 ____ 672 BKViking _____________________ 66 _ 62 _ 48 __ 176 __ 98 _ 92 _ 78 __ 268 __ 444 __ 54 _ 76 _ 84 __ 214 ____ 658 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 72 _ 64 _ 42 __ 178 __ 92 _ 88 _ 86 __ 266 __ 444 __ 54 _ 88 _ 60 __ 202 ____ 646 Roger Smith __________________66 _ 56 _ 32 __ 154 __ 72 _ 64 _ 88 __ 224 __ 378 __ 86 _ 92 _ 84 __ 262 ____ 640 Tom _________________________ 64 _ 66 _ 50 __ 180 __100 _ 86 _ 92 __ 278 __ 458 __ 44 _ 72 _ 58 __ 174 ____ 632 RJay __________________________52 _ 46 _ 48 __ 146 __ 92 _ 86 _ 66 __ 244 __ 390 __ 46 _ 72 _ 76 __ 194 ____ 584 wxallannj _____________________ 50 _ 46 _ 28 __ 124 __ 86 _ 42 _ 76 __ 204 __ 328 __ 40 _ 86 _ 96 __ 222 ____ 550 Stormchaser Chuck __________ 26 _ 26 _ 22 __ 074 __ 52 _ 24 _ 34 __ 110 ___ 184 __ 76 _ 88 _ 36__ 200 ____ 384 _______________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA, NYC, BOS _ Scotty Lightning takes three wins here, tied with RodneyS for DCA, and Normal also has three wins. ORD did not qualify as highest scores were near consensus. ATL did not qualify as third coldest forecast had high score. IAH also did not qualify as highest scores were near consensus. DEN is a win for Roger Smith with warmest forecast. PHX did not qualify with third warmest forecast at high score. SEA did not qualify with fifth warmest forecast at high score.

Now at 7/3/1 _ that was fast.

Well hands up if you thought we would be at 6/3/0 after the median peak of the season. Okay Ed you can put your hand down now. Going back, the least productive seasons of the past 170 years include these: * 2014 (8/6/2) and 2009 (9/3/2) have the lowest storm counts since 1997. (Numerous other years had only 2 majors though) * 2013 (14/2/0) has the lowest H count since 1914 (tied with 1982, 1930, 1919 and 1917) and is most recent year to have no majors. * 1997 (8/3/1) is tied with 2014 for low storm count and with 2009 for second lowest H count. * 1994 (7/3/0) is tied with 1997 and 2009 for second lowest H count and is the second most recent year to register no major hurricanes. * 1993 also a low count season (8/4/1) although 1994 was one lower for each element. * 1992 (7/4/1) tied 1994 for low storm count, Andrew however made it a more notable season. * 1987 (7/3/1) is tied with 1992 and 1994 for low storm count, and with 1994, 1997, 2009 for second lowest H count. * 1986 (6/4/0) had the least named storms after 1983 and is tied with 1994, 2013 for no major hurricanes. * 1983 (4/3/1) set a low storm count since 1930 and is tied with 1987, 1994, 1997 and 2009 for second lowest H count. * 1982 (6/2/1) had the fewest hurricanes since 1914 (tied 1917, 1919, 1930 and 2013). * 1946 (7/3/0) was a rather weak season, but zero major hurricanes occurred several times between 1946 and 1986. * 1930 (3/2/2) set a low storm count and a low H count (later tied in 1982 and 2013) since 1914 * 1917 and 1919 also had only 2 H, back that far the non-identification factor has to be considered though. * 1914 (1/0/0) set records for low counts in all departments. Before 1914 these were the lowest seasonal counts since 1850: * 1907 (5/0/0) tied 1914 for low H (zero M is fairly common in the early portions of the records) * 1857 was tied with 1868 (both 4/3/0) and also 1883 (4/3/2), 1884 (4/4/1) and 1890 (4/2/1) for the third lowest storm count with 1925 and 1983.

Had a look in my data base and these are all the NYC readings of 90 or higher after 20th of September ... daily records are in bold type. The list goes into October. Also the list is by date which tends to give you the picture of how 90+ decreases in frequency going forward. 9/21 __ 95 (1895) 94 (1914) 92 (1940) 9/22 __ 95 (1895) 95 (1914) 94 (1970) 94 (1980) 92 (1931) 9/23 __ 97 (1895) 93 (1970) 92 (1914) 91 (1941) 90 (1959) 90 (1961) 9/24 __ 91 (2017) 9/25 __ 90 (1970) 9/26 __ 91 (1881, 1970) 90 (1895) 9/27 __ 90 (1933) 9/28 __ (none, rec high 88 1881) 9/29 __ (none, rec high 88 1945) 9/30 __ (none, rec high 89 1986) 10/1 ___ (none, rec high 88 1927) 10/2 ___ 93 (2019) 90 (1927) 10/3 or later __ 94 (5th, 1941), 90 (6th, 1941), 91 (10th, 1939), 90 (17th, 1938) * * these were all record highs, they are listed in date order from 3rd to 17th, dates without 90+ have records between 84 and 88. The latest 88F was Oct 22nd 1979. Unlike many climate indicators, this one tends to be weighted more towards earlier years in the period of record, possibly a by-product of site changes but the same trend is notable at Toronto which has not had the same types of site changes. A statistical fluke, or perhaps something to do with climate changes in source regions? Anyway, for what it's worth, the tendency to older records fades out gradually through October and in both November and December the frequency of recent record dates increases (especially with 1982, 1998, 2013 and then 2015 bulldozing the December records). The record before Sep 24 2017 was 89F from 1959 and the record before Oct 2, 2019 as shown was 90F in 1927. Many other years had 88 or 89 readings in late September and the median is about 85. As Oct 5, 1941 was a notable outlier, the second highest on that date was 89F in 1922. The warmest on the date since 1941 is only 86 (1967), more recently 83 in 2007 and 2017. Some other notable very late warm records include 88F on Oct 6th, 1959, 88F Oct 7th, 1944, 87F on Oct 8, 2007, 86F on Oct 9, 1916, 87F on Oct 13, 1954, and 87F on Oct 16, 1897. The latest occurrence of 85F is Oct 23rd, 1947 and 84F Nov 1, 1950. Near-miss 89F have all been mentioned except for a few Sep 21-25 and those are 89F on Sep 22, 1872, Sep 25, 1881, and Sep 25, 1926, Sep 22, 1959, Sep 25, 2010, and Sep 23, 2019.

Seasonal Max update _ final standings This may be the final report on the seasonal max contest but will continue to monitor reports to end of September. RJay leads by six over three other forecasters. FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ Total dep RJay ______________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 105 __ 101 _ 119 __ 95 _____ 11 ___ Consensus (means) ____101 __100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 105 __ 100 _ 119 __ 93 _____ 16 DonSutherland1 __________ 104 __ 100 __ 101 ___100 ___ 99 _ 105 __ 100 _ 118 __ 92 ____ 17 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 ____ 17 BKViking __________________ 100 ___99 ___ 97 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 101 __ 100 _ 119 __ 94 ____ 17 wxdude64 ________________ 102 ___99 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 ____ 18 RodneyS ___________________ 98 ___98 ___ 97 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 102 _ 119 __ 93 ____ 18 so_whats_happening _____ 102 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 103 _ 121 __ 93 ____ 24 wxallannj ___________________98 ___97 ___ 96 ___ 97 ___ 98 _ 100 ___ 96 _ 118 __ 92 ____ 24 Tom ________________________ 99 ___99 ___ 97 ___102 __ 102 _ 107 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 97 ____ 25 Roger Smith ______________ 104 __ 103 __ 101 ___ 98 __ 102 _ 108 __ 105 _ 119 __ 95 ____ 27 Scotty Lightning __________ 104 __101 ___ 99 ____ 97 __ 105 _ 110 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 90 ____ 38 ___ to Sep 30 _______________ 99 __ 97 __100 _____ 99 __ 99 __105 _____101 _ 115 _ 95 ============================== Tracking September anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th __ (anom 10d) ________+1.9 _ +1.3 _ -1.5 __ +3.4 _ +0.2 _ -1.1 ___ +5.5 __+3.0 __+2.3 21st __ (anom 20d) ________+1.9 _ +1.9 __ 0.0 __ +3.5 __0.0 _ -0.1 ___ +4.7 __ +1.0 __+1.7 11th __ (p anom 20d) _____ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ -1.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 ___ +3.0 __+2.5 __+2.0 11th __ (p anom 27d) _____ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ -0.5 __ +1.5 __ 0.0 _ -0.5 ___ +2.5 __+2.0 _ +2.0 21st __ (p anom 30d) _____ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ -0.5 __ +2.0 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +3.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 1st __ final anoms _________+0.3 _ +0.3 _ -0.4 __ +1.1 __ -0.3 _ +0.2 ___ +4.2 _ +1.9 _ +2.2 21st _ Month looks likely to end just above 91-20 normal values in northeast and southeast (exc BOS), staying rather warm in western regions. 1st Oct _ Final anomalies posted, scoring will soon be updated.

Another season is in the books, these internet thread files have been updated, and so have the supporting excel files. A link to those can be found in the previous post. In general the summer of 2022 was quite warm at both NYC and Toronto; it was the third warmest August on record at NYC. One daily record high maximum was set at Toronto (35.8 C on June 22) and the highest reading at NYC was 97F on August 9th but that was not a daily record. It was quite a dry summer for NYC and surrounding region, not as dry for Toronto although slightly below the long-term normals.

I have just added some new records or near-records for weekly values in the hot summer of 2022. First of all, the original post now shows rankings of 44th all-time for the hottest week (mean max 92.43) and t10th for mean minimum (77.00). There were two nearly equal hot weeks, July 19-25 and Aug 3-9. They also factor into daily records, the mean maxima did not displace any, but the mean minima came close in the July 19 to 25 spell, and tied one record, breaking another (both from 1908) around Aug 2-8 to Aug 4-10. For mean daily temperatures, the highest value in the first spell was 84.29 (July 19-25) which was just below the 2011 record of 85.21. The second hot spell peaked with 84.43 Aug 4-10 but that was below both 1896 (85.93) and 2001 (85.57). The previous day at 84.29 came closer to a 1980 record of 84.86 and would have broken the Aug 2-8 record from 1955 (84.21). A third rather hot spell was later in the month of August, with several top three outcomes. Although the peak was Aug 24-30, the records were more threatened a few days earlier when they are somewhat weaker. For example, the record for Aug 20-26 is only 79.64 (1939) and this year managed 79.50. But when this year was 80.43 Aug 24-30, that was well below the 1948 record of 85.14 and several other years.

After the mid-week rainfall event your region may begin to see some high-level smoke layers from large fires now burning near the BC-Alberta border around 54-56 N. Lesser sources of smoke also exist in the border regions of northern ID and nw MT, se BC. It would probably be six to ten days before this arrives in the northeastern U.S., perhaps not very big concentrations, but should provide some visible upper level smoke layers and colorful sunsets perhaps. It is hot and dry here and we're expecting a dry cold front to sweep through tonight. We had the smoke from Idaho yesterday but a shift in the winds has cleared us out nicely (near 90 F with a strong westerly breeze, expecting NW 40-50 mph gusts overnight).

Four Seasons contest __ summer 2022 portion _ June 2022, July 2022, August 2022 The table is arranged in order of total points for the first three-quarters of the four seasons contest. ____________________________WINTER __ Winter ______ SPRING _ Spring ____ SUMMER _ Summer FORECASTER ______________ TOTAL ___ Points ______ TOTAL __ Points _____ TOTAL ___ Points _____ Contest Total Don Sutherland 1 ____________1623 ______ 10 _________ 1962 _____ 7 ________1886 ______ 3 __________ 20 RodneyS ____________________ 1600 ______ 7 __________ 1868 _____ 5 ________1988 ______ 6 __________ 18 wxallannj ____________________1572 ______ 6 __________ 1646 ______ 1 _______ 2000 ______ 7 __________14 __ Consensus _______________ 1513 ______ 3.5_________ 1865 _____4.9 _______1960 ______5.0_________13.4 Tom _________________________ 1309 _______ 1 __________1973 _____ 10 ________1880 ______ 1 __________ 12 Roger Smith _________________ 1043 ______ 1 __________ 1413 _______1 ________2008 ______10 _________ 12 so_whats_happening ________ 1499 ______ 3 __________ 1770 _______3 _______ 1960 ______ 5 __________11 wxdude64 __________________ 1535 ______ 4 ___________ 1820 ______ 4 ________1884 ______ 2 _________ 10 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1540 ______ 5 ___________ 1692 ______ 1 _________1920 ______ 4 _________ 10 RJay ________________________ 1351 ______ 1 ___________ 1952 ______ 6 _________1872 ______ 1 __________ 8 BKViking ____________________ 1467 _______2 ___________1762 _______2 _________1846 ______ 1 __________ 5 __Normal ____________________ 1173 _______ 1 ___________1630 _______1 _________1762 ______ 1 __________ 3 Scotty Lightning _____________ 1138 ______ 1 ___________1750 _______ 1 _________1878 ______ 1 __________ 3 Stormchaser Chuck __________ 674 (1/3) __ 0 ________ 1117 (2/3) __ 1 _________1176 (2/3) _ 1 __________ 2 ============================================ Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. Consensus and Normal can score decimal points if their totals are between two forecaster totals 2 to 10, and the decimal is based on the position relative to those forecasters. The top three remain in their previous order.

Table of forecasts for September 2022 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Stormchaser Chuck __________+4.0 _+4.0 _+3.5 __ +3.5 _+3.5 _+3.5 __ +3.0 _+2.5 _ -1.0 wxallannj _____________________+2.8 _+3.0 _+3.2 __ +1.8 _+2.6 _ -1.0 ___ +1.2 _+2.6 _+2.4 RJay _________________________ +2.7 _+3.0 _+2.2 __ +1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ +1.5 _+0.5 _+4.0 Tom __________________________+2.1 _+2.2 _ +2.1 __ +1.1 __ +0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.4 _+0.5 _+0.1 Roger Smith _________________ +2.0 _+2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _+1.5 _+0.8 __ +3.5 _+1.5 _+3.0 BKViking _____________________ +2.0 _+2.2 _+2.2 __ +1.2 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 __ +1.9 _+0.7 _+3.0 ___ Consensus _______________ +1.9 _ +2.2 _+2.2 __ +1.2 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +1.6 _+1.2 _+1.6 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +1.7 _+2.1 _ +2.5 __ +0.7 _ +0.3 _+0.9 __ +1.9 _+1.3 _+0.2 so_whats_happening _________+1.4 _+1.5 _ +2.1 ___ +1.7 _+0.7 _+0.6 __ +1.2 _+0.7 _+2.5 wxdude64 ____________________+1.3 _+1.5 _ +1.7 __ +0.8 _ +0.2 _ -0.2 __ +1.7 _+1.1 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 ______________ +1.1 _+1.5 _ +2.0 __ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 __ +1.3 _+2.0 _+1.8 RodneyS ______________________+1.0 _+1.3 _ +1.3 __ +0.5 _ -0.6 _ -0.6 __ +3.1 _+0.8 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 __________________________________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA,NYC,BOS,ORD,DEN,PHX

===<<< __________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Aug 2022) _____________>>>=== Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. With many scores similar in August, there was only one set of changes in ranks; RodneyS is now fourth and Tom fifth. Consensus has fallen to third place behind DonSutherland1, and Normal remained between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (4154), based on 8/5 times actual score, and with that he would now fall just below the total of our 8th ranked forecaster. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________553 _581 _589 __1723 __555 _589_ 456__1600_3323 __556 _632 _493 __1681 ____5004 DonSutherland1 ________ 634 _588 _572__1794__580 _540 _372__1492 _3286 __480 _648 _558 __1686 ____4972 ___ Consensus ___________574 _584 _550 __1708__524 _570 _408__1512 _3210__584 _636 _539 __1759 ____4969 so_whats_happening ____532 _554 _584__1670__533 _574_ 412__1519 _ 3189 __ 548 _636 _576 __1760 ____4949 RodneyS ________________ 568 _512 _492 __1572__446 _626 _482__1554 _3126 __612 _654 _546 __1812 ____4938 Tom _____________________ 571 _587 _523 __1681__522 _545 _523__1590 _3271 __599 _547 _472 __ 1618 ____4889 wxallannj ________________508 _532 _524 __1564 __490 _518 _430__1438 _3002 __646 _604 _566 __1816____4818 hudsonvalley21 __________534 _586 _570 __1690__502 _524 _408__1434 _3124__522 _620 _502 __ 1644 ____4768 BKViking ________________ 566 _578 _530 __1674__456 _496 _384__1336 _3010 __596 _582 _514 __1692 ____4702 RJay _____________________536 _606 _588 __1730__477 _516 _396__1389 _3119 __574 _492 _489 __1555 ____ 4674 Scotty Lightning _________546 _534 _510 __1590 __470 _532 _450__1452 _ 3042 __512 _594 _420__1526____4568 _____ Normal _____________568 _502 _440 __1510 __484 _534 _420 __1438 _ 2948 __486 _548 _456__1490____4438 Roger Smith _____________ 474 _432 _334 __1240 __404 _436 _378 __1218 _2458 __582 _600 _573__1755____4213 Stormchaser Chuck (5/8)_334 _374 _367 __1075 __298 _ 414 _248 __960 __2035 __304 _373 _255 __932____2967 __ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 4747 total points. ========================================= Best Forecasts _ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Jan DonSutherland1 __________4*^__ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____1 ____2 __ Feb,May ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 1 __ Jul RodneyS _________________ 1* ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1___ 2*___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ____ 0 Tom ______________________ 1^___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0 BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr Scotty Lightning __________ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 3 ____ 2 __Jun, Aug Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred eleven times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 55 of 72 forecasts qualify, 24 warmest and 31 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _ 15-5 (13-5) DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- ___ 9-0 (7.25 - 0) RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 ___9-2 (7.5 -2) Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- ___ 8-1 (7.5 - 1) Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1___ 6-1 (4.25 - 1) ____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 ___ 6-1 wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- ___ 5-0 (4.0 - 0) so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 __ 3-0 (2.5 - 0) hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 ___ 3-1 (2.0 - 1) wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 ___3-2 (2.0 -1) BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0) Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0__ 2-0 (1 - 0) =============================== (Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

RJay if you call in here, I was trying to send you a PM re Sept contest but your inbox may be full, anyway, whatever, have a great weekend also.

+2.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 __ +3.5 _ +1.5 _ +3.0

IIRC the GFS was showing 100+ (at NYC) in August back in late July and the highest NYC got was 97, so perhaps the GFS does not have the foliage in its toolbox, or maybe it just overdoes heat. That being said, any record from 1881 has got to be in some jeopardy in the modern climate with the current urban heat island compared to 1881. September 1881 is actually one of the warmest months relative to normal especially when you factor in that urban heat island (which then could not have been much more than 20% of today's version). It stayed warm into the first few days of October and set records both on the 7th (that all-time 101F referenced in the thread) and later in the month on several dates. There are a remarkable number of warm Septembers ending in the digit 1, 1891, 1921, 1931, 1961 for the longer term past, all very warm. 1941 had record heat in early October instead (and holds the monthly maximum of 94F at NYC). Both September and October 1971 were quite warm, especially October.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg relative to 1991-2020) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline for on-time entries will be 06z Thursday September 1st. Thanks for entering.

I chose a great place to retire (maybe not), we have had the hottest June, July and August on record here in the past two years (June and July last year, August this year). So far running 4 C (7 F) above normal this month, almost every day has hit some value between 95F and 102F. That was the heat that was supposed to drift further east but ended up parking over top of western Canada and the Pac NW all summer (early June was cool/wet so the fire situation has not ramped up the way it did last year). And of course in 2021 we had the heat dome (June 26 to July 3 here) and an all-time daily maximum record of 113 F (44.8 C) on June 30th. July last year stayed very hot all month and ended up 5.3 C deg above normal (25.7 C). We have relatively cool nights so the hotter months average well into the mid-30s C or around 95-96 F. That's a big anomaly for a summer month in a warm climate zone. Except for a few pockets further west, this is about the hottest and driest place in Canada in the summer (near the Columbia valley where the river crosses into WA state).