Roger Smith

Enter your forecast for seasonal totals of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (in the North Atlantic basin) ... using NOAA official counts as our contest guide ... separate thread in tropical forum.

CSU April 3, 2025 17 9 4 UKMO May 21, 2025 16 9 4 NOAA __ May 22, 2025 13-19 6-10 3-5 (16 8 4 avg fcst)

Got lucky with a late flare up and as of 0200 local, very good display (49N 117W).

Contest deadline extended to 6/6 ... I will say 20/11/3.

Just looking at the latest depictions from NOAA space weather, the geomagnetic storm flared up big time between 09z and 15z, then petered out for several hours, and has since begun to recharge (a second wave of material from the active Sun). As of now, all of New England and NYS would be seeing northern lights if it were dark outside. Hopefully this trend will continue. You can access real-time depictions of the aurora at swpc.noaa.gov. The auroral ring "forecast" is actually a 24-hour time lapse and its "forecast" component is only a few minutes into the future, what you see there is the previous 23 hours and the projected next hour of coverage. I've found from experience that if you're in the "green" outer zone you need to be in a very dark un-light-polluted spot to see much, if you're in yellow you'll easily see a lot of details in low-light-pollution rural spots and if you're in the red then you'll see an awe-inspiring display (all assuming you aren't clouded over of course). Hoping it stays active to 06z so I get a chance here, never went out to look last night because it was cloudy at 0200h. We had a very strong cold front go through late Saturday, highs were near 90F on Saturday and barely 60F today. Unusual for this time of year around here.

<<<<< JUNE DAILY RECORDS NYC 1869-2024 >>>>> _Date___Hi max __Hi min ______ Low max _ low min ________ 1d rain __ 2d rain** Jun 01 ___ 96 1895 ___ 77 1895 _______ 58 1945,2015 _44 1945 _________ 2.60 1887 ___3.13 1940 Jun 02 ___ 96 1895 ___ 76 1895, 1918__ 52 1907,46___48 1880,1907,29,45.46 _ 2.79 2006 ___3.78 2006 Jun 03 ___ 95 1895 ___ 75 1943 _______ 53 1945 _____45 1929 (68) ______ 3.01 1996 ___3.55 2006 Jun 04 ___ 99 1925 ___ 78 1943 _______ 52 1945 _____48 1926 (58 5th) __ 2.75 2003 ___3.91 2007a Jun 05 ___ 99 1925 ___ 78 1925 _______ 55 1945 _____47 1945 ___________ 2.80 1992 ___2.80 1992* Jun 06 ___ 98 1925 ___ 77 1925 _______ 56 1894 _____47 1945 (70) ______ 2.62 2000 ___2.90 1992 Jun 07 ___ 96 1925 ___ 76 2021 _______ 61 1891,1905_47 1879 (64)_______ 4.16 2013 ___4.29 2013 Jun 08 ___ 95 1933 ___ 77 1984 _______ 56 1947 _____47 1932 ____________1.02 1900 ___4.64 2013 Jun 09 ___ 97 1933 ___ 77 1984 _______ 57 1916 _____47 1980 (63) _______ 2.55 1989 ___2.63 1989b Jun 10 ___ 96 2008 ___ 79 1984 _______ 55 1881 _____49 1881, 1972 ______ 2.07 1881 ___2.85 1881 _____________________________________________________________________________ a 2007 2d (1.62+2.29) _____________________________________________________________________________ b also 2.36" 2d 1897 Jun 11 ___ 95 1973 ___ 78 1984 _______ 57 1916 _____46 1972 (69) _______ 1.14 1911 ___2.09 1881 Jun 12 ___ 93 1933,73,2017_76 2017 _____62 1924 _____48 1979 (69 11th) _ 2.18 1903,10_2.47 1910 ___________________________________________________________________ also 2d(1903 2.26", 1911 2.04") Jun 13 ___ 96 1961 ___ 77 2017 _______ 55 1982 _____51 1953 (63) _______ 1.71 1941 ___2.86 1998 Jun 14 ___ 99 1956 ___ 78 2005 ______ 59 1907 _____49 1875 (64 13th) __ 2.54 1917a ___2.54 1917* ___________________________________________________________________________a also 2.38" 1896 (1d) Jun 15 ___ 96 1891,1988,94_76 1899,1945,56_60 1916,71__48 1933 ____________ 1.13 1915 ___2.57 1917 Jun 16 ___ 97 1891 ___ 78 1891 _______ 62 1965 _____52 1927 ____________ 1.31 1972 ___1.36 1985 Jun 17 ___ 96 1957 ___ 77 1957 _______ 61 1959 _____51 1926 ____________ 1.82 2011 ___1.82 2011* Jun 18 ___ 95 1929 ___ 76 1957,2014 __63 1920 _____48 1950 (63 19th) __ 2.33 1871 b___2.33 1871* __________________________________________________________________________ b also 2.30" 2009 (1d) Jun 19 ___ 98 1994 ___ 76 1993 _______ 59 1935 _____52 1920 ____________ 1.93 1934 ___3.18 1967 __________________________________________________________________________________ 1967 (2.15+1.03) Jun 20 ___ 98 1923 ___ 76 1892 _______ 59 1958 _____49 1914 ____________ 1.39 1919 ___1.93 1934** Jun 21 ___ 97 1953,88 _ 79 2012 ______ 63 1958,2003_49 1897 (67)_______ 1.70 1902 ___1.70 1902* Jun 22 ___ 98 1988 ___ 76 1941 _______ 62 1928,52 __ 52 1897, 1940 ______1.96 1887 ___2.54 1887 Jun 23 ___ 96 1888 ___ 77 1888 _______ 59 1918 _____49 1918 ____________ 1.75 1887 ___3.71 1887 Jun 24 ___ 96 1888 ___ 79 1909 _______ 59 1940 _____52 1881, 1932 ______ 1.46 1984 ___1.75 1887** Jun 25 ___ 99 1943,52 _ 78 1909 ______ 63 1974 _____53 1873 (62 24th) ___ 1.19 1925 ___1.52 1984 Jun 26 ___100 1952 ___ 81 1952 _______ 63 1893 _____56 1893, 1974,79 ___4.29 1884 ___4.74 1884 Jun 27 ___101 1966 ___ 76 1943 _______ 61 1968 _____55 1940 ____________ 2.11 1932 ___4.29 1884** Jun 28 ___ 96 1969,91 _ 77 1876,1943 __ 60 1938 ____54 1888,93,1915,95 _ 1.69 1938 ___2.76 1938 Jun 29 ___101 1934 ___ 78 2021 _______ 65 1903 _____52 1888, 1919 ______ 2.57 1903 ___2.57 1903* Jun 30 ___ 99 1964 ___ 79 1945,59 _____65 1967 _____ 53 1919 ____________ 3.07 1984 ___3.07 1984* **2day rain records are for two days ending on date (e.g. June 30 record is June 29-30) ... ... records marked * have only rain on second day of 2d int (e.g. no rain fell June 29, 1984). ... records marked ** have only rain on previous day of 2d int (e.g. no rain fell June 27, 1884). NOTE also ... monthly extreme values are in bold type. Temps in brackets with record low minima are that day's (or indicated day's) non-record low max value, gives an idea of whether the low max that actually occurred was a cloudier day than the day with a record low min. ____________________________________ 76F new high min June 7 2021 replaced 73F 1883 and 78F June 29 replaced 77F 1870. June 27 also __ 1.99"R 1919

+3.0 for all exc west (3 stn) +1.5 102 _ 100 _ 100 __ 101 _ 102 _ 107 __ 107 _ 120 _ 99 (add your seasonal max forecasts, by 6-10 is fine)

Tracking progress of 2025 in top 20 wettest Mays ... 21 _ 5.76 _ (2004) 20 _ 5.77 _ (1897) 19 _ 6.23 _ (1979) 18 _ 6.34 _ (1924) 17 _ 6.38 _ (2017) 16 _ 6.43 _ (1901) 15 _ 6.58 _ 2025 (final) 14 _ 6.72 _ (1898) 13 _ 6.80 _ (1946) 12 _ 6.82 _ (2019) 11 _ 6.94 _ (1998) 10 _ 7.06 _ (1968) 09 _ 7.58 _ (1948) 08 _ 7.61 _ (1940) 07 _ 8.00 _ (2013) 06 _ 8.39 _ (1972) 05 _ 8.51 _ (1908) 04 _ 9.10 _ (1990) 03 _ 9.15 _ (1978) 02 _ 9.74 _ (1984) 01 _10.24 _ (1989) _______________________________________ Last year was 4.11" (62nd wettest)

Tracking progress of 2025 in top 20 wettest Mays ... 21 _ 5.76 _ (2004) 20 _ 5.77 _ (1897) 19 _ 6.12 _ 2025 (29, 4 pm ) 18 _ 6.23 _ (1979) 17 _ 6.34 _ (1924) 16 _ 6.38 _ (2017) 15 _ 6.43 _ (1901) 14 _ 6.72 _ (1898) 13 _ 6.80 _ (1946) 12 _ 6.82 _ (2019) 11 _ 6.94 _ (1998) 10 _ 7.06 _ (1968) 09 _ 7.58 _ (1948) 08 _ 7.61 _ (1940) 07 _ 8.00 _ (2013) 06 _ 8.39 _ (1972) 05 _ 8.51 _ (1908) 04 _ 9.10 _ (1990) 03 _ 9.15 _ (1978) 02 _ 9.74 _ (1984) 01 _10.24 _ (1989) _______________________________________ Last year was 4.11" (62nd wettest)

May scoring post already exists (final edit June 1st) before snowfall contest posts above ... Here's the annual scoring update ... this contest remains quite close top to bottom. === ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-May 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __TOTALS Tom ___________________325 _346 _376 __1047 __314 _328 _302 __944 _1991 __352 _318 _294__964 ___2955 hudsonvalley21 _______ 303 _358 _390 __1051 __246 _372 _301 __919__1970 __304 _308 _364__976 ___2946 ___ Consensus _______ 305 _336 _354__995__300 _386 _286_972 _1967 _ 287 _326 _360__973___2940 so_whats_happening __337 _356 _318 __1011 __282 _402 _263 __947 _ 1958 __274 _258 _380__ 912 ___ 2870 RJay __________________ 304 _371 _ 381__1056 __314 _390 _276 __980 _ 2036__237 _243 _263__743 ___2779 BKViking ______________ 230 _293 _303 __826 __312 _374 _280 __966 _ 1792 __ 318 _320 _337__ 975 ___2767 Scotty Lightning _______330 _332 _312 __ 974 __241 _268 _ 296 __805 _ 1779 __253 _374 _350__977 ___2756 wxallannj ______________263 _290 _330 __ 883 __308 _306 _272 __886 _1769 __ 318 _316 _343__ 977 ___2746 DonSutherland1 _______233 _282 _318 __ 833 __262 _352 _252 __866 _1699 __ 311 _286 _382__ 979 ___2678 RodneyS ______________ 288 _280 _326 __ 894 __256 _300 _234 __790 _ 1684 __231 _316 _436__983___2667 StormchaserChuck ___ 309 _306 _316 __ 931 __200 _388 _ 199 __787 _ 1718 __ 313 _282 _293__888 ___2606 wxdude64 _____________244 _270 _294 __ 808 __230_ 332 _254 __816 _ 1624 __311 _326 _342__979 ___2603 Roger Smith ___________274 _302 _314 __ 890 __ 272 _334 _258 __864 _ 1754 __ 158 _260 _331__ 749 ___2503 ___ Normal _____________240 _302 _316 __ 858 __242 _ 178 _ 121 ___541 __1399 __ 284 _314 _360__958 ___2357 maxim (2/5) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2777 Persistence _____________116 _236 _322 __ 674 ___138 _196 _226 __ 560 _1234 __134 _198 _284 __ 616 ____1850 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ____________________ 1 __ 1* __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1* __1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 __ Mar hudsonvalley21 ________ 0 __ 2* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Consensus _______ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ____0 so_whats_happening __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*__ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning _______ 2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 2 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____ 0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 _______0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RodneyS _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 1* __ 1* __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 3 ____ 1 _____1 _ May StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2*__ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr wxdude64 ______________0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== odd distribution of contest wins, 4/5 go to last four regular entrants in total scoring. (one to top scorer Tom) Extreme forecasts So far, 29 of 45 ... 15 for warmest and 14 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 __6-1 ____5.0 - 1.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 __ 4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 __ 4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 ___ Normal ________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-1 ____ 3.0 - 1.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 __3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____ 1.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 ========================================================= Four Seasons Winter 2024-2025 scoring 12 pts to winner, 10 down to 1 point for rest of field, and 1 point for all entrants at least 2/3. ____________________________ winter _____________ spring ___________________ FORECASTER _____________TOTAL __points___ MAR _APR _MAY __TOTAL _ points __ TOTAL points ___ Consensus ____________ 1771 ___ 9.7 _____549 _ 616 _ 602 __ 1767 ____7.4 __ 17.1 so_whats_happening ______ 1662 ____ 8 _____ 587 _ 646 _ 572 __ 1805 ____ 8 ____ 16 BKViking ___________________1805 ___ 12 _____ 545 _ 536 _ 540 __ 1621 _____4 ____ 16 RJay _______________________1703 ____ 9 ______ 489 _ 698 _ 502 __1689 ____ 5 ____ 14 Tom _______________________ 1417 ____ 1 ______ 703 _ 674 _ 676 __ 2053 ___ 12 ____ 13 wxallannj __________________ 1800 ___ 10 _____ 551 _ 474 _ 536 __ 1561 _____ 3 ____ 13 hudsonvalley21 ____________1532 ____ 3 ______ 607 _ 684 _ 642 __1933 ____ 9 ____ 12 StormchaserChuck _______ 1328 ____ 1 ______ 695 _ 710 _ 548 __ 1953 ____ 10 ____ 11 Don Sutherland1 __________ 1587 ____ 5 ______569 _ 566 _ 598 __ 1733 ____ 6 ____ 11 Scotty Lightning __________ 1542 ____ 4 ______415 _ 668 _ 658 __ 1741 ____ 7 ____ 11 wxdude64 ________________ 1653 ____ 7 ______380 _ 488 _ 568 __ 1436 ___ 1 ____ 8 Roger Smith _______________1617 ____ 6 ______266 _ 516 _ 576 __ 1368 ____ 1 ____ 7 RodneyS __________________ 1488 ____ 2 ______338 _ 422 _ 714 __ 1474 ____ 2 ___ 4 ___ Normal _______________ 1387 ____ 1 ______ 260 _ 482 _ 698 __1440 ____1 ____ 2 ___________________________

Yesterday's (05-22) stats: ORH 43/40 __ 2.07" (prev day 46/42 .03") BOS 48/45 __ 3.11" (prev day 50/47 Tr) CON 47/42 __ 1.04" (prev day 53/46 0.00")

"1916 - A tornado struck the town of Cordell, KS. A tornado struck the town on the same day the following year (1917), and a third tornado hit Cordell on May 20th in 1918. (The Weather Channel)" <<< Welcome to Cordell, tornado free since 1919 >>>

Listed as 54F on May 25, 2013. Lowest values since 1990 are 51F on 20th_2000, 21st_1990, and 29th,30th_2021. Then 53F on 25th, 2005. These dates can be added as max 50F ... 21st, 1892, 1924, 1929; 24th, 1877.

In NYC data, only these three days failed to reach 50F after 18th: May 19, 1950 _ 48F May 25, 1967 _ 46F May 27, 1961 _ 47F (the month's warmest max, 99F, was on 19th of 1962)

Final scoring for May 2025 _ late penalties are incorporated into scoring, mostly 1 point deductions (for 2% to remove 2 points, score must be 76+) FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL RodneyS ________________________76 _ 62 _ 92 _ 230 _ 84 _ 98 _ 50 _ 232 _ 462 _ 86 _ 68 _ 98 __252 ____714 ___ Normal______________________ 96 _ 82 _ 84 _ 262 _ 48 _ 96 _ 36 _ 180 _ 442 _ 94 _ 72 _ 90 __ 256 ___ 698 Tom _____________________________84 _ 66 _100_ 250 _ 26 _ 98 _ 54 _ 178 _ 428 _ 90 _ 82 _ 76 __ 248 ___ 676 Scotty Lightning ________________ 66 _ 62 _ 96 _ 224 _ 28 _ 66 _ 76 _ 170 _ 394 _ 86 _ 98 _ 80 __ 264 ___ 658 hudsonvalley21 __________________80 _ 70 _ 90 _ 240 _ 20 _ 72 _ 60 _ 152 _ 392 _ 70 _ 86 _ 94 __ 250 ___ 642 ___ Consensus _______________66 _ 50 _ 82 _ 198 _ 20 _ 86 _ 56 _162 _ 360 _ 80 _ 82 _80 __242 __ 602 DonSutherland1 _________________ 62 _ 48 _ 82 _ 192 _ 22 _ 90 _ 54 _ 166 _ 358 _ 98 _ 56 _ 86 __ 240 ___ 598 Roger Smith ____________________ 70 _ 54 _ 86 _ 210 _ 24 _ 92 _ 46 _ 162 _ 372 _ 52 _ 92 _ 60 __ 204 ____ 576 so_whats_happening ____________68 _ 50 _ 82 _ 200 _ 10 _ 96 _ 32 _ 138 _ 338 _ 76 _ 78 _ 80 __ 234 ___ 572 wxdude64 ______________________ 60 _ 44 _ 82 _ 186 _ 06 _ 78 _ 58 _ 142 _ 328 _ 76 _ 82 _ 82 __ 240 ___ 568 StormchaserChuck _____________ 68 _ 50 _ 80 _ 198 _ 00 _ 98 _ 24 _ 122 _ 320 _ 84 _ 74 _ 70 __ 228 ____ 548 BKViking ___________(-2%)_______49 _ 35 _ 73 _ 157 _ 20 _ 84 _ 55 _ 159 __ 316 _ 65 _ 96 _ 63 __ 224 ___ 540 wxallannj________________________ 46 _ 32 _ 66 _ 144 _ 00 _ 80 _ 60 _ 140 _ 284 _ 86 _ 82 _ 84 __ 252 ___ 536 RJay ________________(-2%)______ 55 _ 31 _ 65 __ 151 _ 08 _ 84 _ 55 _ 147 __ 298 _ 74 _ 71 _ 59 __ 204 ___ 502 ______ Persistence (Apr 2025) __________26 _ 50 _ 72 _ 148 _ 26 _ 16 _ 72 _ 114 _ 262 _ 72 _100 _ 74 __ 246 ___ 508 ============================== Extreme forecasts DCA, NYC, ORD, ATL, DEN, SEA are all wins for coldest forecasts. RodneyS has three of them, and Tom, hudsonvalley21 and DonSutherland have one each. In addition, Normal shares a win for DCA and NYC. ... Also Tom shares the ATL win as lowest and second lowest forecasts tied there ... BOS did not quite qualify, as third coldest forecast there had high score. IAH was a win for warmest forecast (Scotty Lightning). PHX was a win-loss situation where highest forecast (hudsonvalley21) took a loss and second highest forecast (Scotty Lightning) won. ================================== Annual update will appear in a post to be edited below (dated Wed May 28th) _ this should happen later today (June 1st).

Tracking anomalies and projections ... _____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ anom 1-15 ______ +3.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.0 ___+1.0 _ +0.1 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.2 _ -0.5 ___ p anom 1-31 ____ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ anom 1-31 ______ -0.2 _ -0.9 _ +0.8 ___ -2.6 _ +0.3 _ +3.2 __ +0.3 _ +1.4 _ -0.5

Visible satellite showing 150 mile extension of anvil top blowoff to east of developing supercells. 40wnw BWG KY 21z would be my chase base.

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>> (probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case) Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025 ... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ... FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1 wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6 Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7 ___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3 BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0 RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3 ___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0 RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0 Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0 wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0 Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0 so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0 ___________________________ Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0 ____________________ To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1 (contest incl all seasonal snow) __Scoring update (in order)__ _ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _ Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL _01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5 _02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1 (02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3 _03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6 _04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3 _05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3 (5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1 _06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1 (6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6 _07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5 _08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4 _09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6 _10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5 _11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4 (will post final comments at end of May)

It's that time again ... enter your forecast for seasonal totals of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (in the North Atlantic basin) ... using NOAA official counts as our contest guide. Include any named storms already in the books by 06z June 7th in your total (as of now, count is 0/0/0). 1991-2020 average values 14/7/3 ... 2025 seasonal forecasts from various experts average 17/9/4 (so far). I will include a few of these as of June 7 as non-entries for ranking against our forecasts (without changing our contest ranks). I extended the entry deadline based on the situation as of 06z June 8. You can edit or revise any entries up to final deadline (11th 06z), no need to bring attention to edits as I won't be trying to create a table of entries until deadline is passed. Boards.ie weather forum and Net-weather (UK) will be invited to participate. Ranks will be provided (a) over all entries and (b) within forums, or fora if anyone here is a Latin purist. 2024 winner was Kirkcaldy Weather of Net-weather. Good luck !

Table of Forecasts for May 2025 FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA wxallannj__________________________+2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+1.3 _+1.2 __+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.3 BKViking ___________(-2%)_________+2.3 _+2.3 _+2.1 __ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.3 _+1.3 RJay ________________(-2%)________ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 __ 0.0 _+1.5 wxdude64 ________________________ +1.8 _+1.9 _+1.7 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+0.4 DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.7 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.3 _+0.8 _+0.9 __+0.2 _-0.8 _+0.2 Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ Consensus _________________+1.5 _+1.6_+1.7 __+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5 StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.8 __ +2.9 _+0.4 _-0.6 __+1.1 _ +0.1 _+1.0 so_whats_happening ______________+1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __+1.9 _+0.5 _-0.2 __+1.5 _+0.3 _+0.5 Roger Smith _______________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.5 __+1.2 _+0.7 _+0.5 __+2.7 _+1.0 _+1.5 RodneyS __________________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.4 __ -1.8 _ +0.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _-0.2 _-0.6 hudsonvalley21 ____________________+0.8 _+0.6 _+0.3 __ +1.4 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+1.8 _+2.1 _-0.2 Tom _______________________________ +0.6 _+0.8 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.4 _+0.9 __+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.7 ___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ______ Persistence (Apr 2025) _____________+3.5 _+1.6 _+2.2 __+1.1 _+4.5 _+4.6 __+1.7 _+1.4 _+0.8 ================== Normal is lower than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, DEN

I think with that reservoir capacity question, 100% is an optimal design level, 110% is probably a few feet above 100% and barely noticeable to a casual observer, but an overflow situation is likely to be 135% or even 150% of capacity, there's a margin for surplus capacity and managers will tolerate it especially if they foresee lower levels in the near future. Depends on local terrain and size of dam holding the reservoir in place.

+1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +0.7 _ +0.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.5

My usual end of month appearance to remind contest entrants (main forum) of approaching deadline for MAY forecasts. On subject of those power outages, I noted that strong winds were blowing in one region of southern Spain and light winds prevailed elsewhere, at time of problems, and during very warm and sunny conditions generally -- could be an imbalance in wind energy contributions to grid causing oscillations.

^^ above find scoring for April (to be adjusted at end of April) ... ... below, post May forecasts ...

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __TOTALS ___ Consensus _______ 239 _286 _272 __797__280 _300 _230_810 _1607 _ 207 _244 _280__731 ___2338 hudsonvalley21 _______ 223 _288 _300 __ 811 __226 _300 _241 __769__1578 __234 _222 _270__726 ___2304 so_whats_happening __269 _306 _236 __ 811 __272 _306 _231 __809 _ 1620 __196 _180 _300__ 676 ___2296 Tom ___________________241 _280 _276 __ 797 __ 288 _230 _248 __766 _ 1563 __262 _236 _218__ 716 ___2279 RJay __________________ 249 _340 _316 __905 __ 306 _306 _ 221 __ 833 _1738 __ 163 _172 _204__ 539 ___2277 BKViking ______________ 181 _258 _230 __ 669 __292 _290 _225 __807 _ 1476 __253 _224 _274__ 751 ___2227 wxallannj ______________217 _258 _264 __ 739 __308 _226 _212 __746 _1485 __ 232 _234 _259__ 725 ___2210 Scotty Lightning _______264 _270 _216 __ 750 __213 _202 _ 220 __ 635 _ 1385 __167 _276 _270__ 713 ___2098 DonSutherland1 _______ 171 _234 _236 __ 641 __240 _262 _198 __ 700 _ 1341 __ 213 _230 _296__ 739 ___2080 StormchaserChuck ___ 241 _256 _236 __ 733 __200 _290 _ 175 __ 665 _ 1398 __229 _208 _223__660___2058 wxdude64 _____________184 _226 _212 __ 622 __ 224_ 254 _196 __ 686 _ 1296 __235 _244 _260__739___2035 RodneyS ______________ 212 _218 _234 __ 664 __ 172 _202 _184 __ 558 _ 1222 __145 _248 _338__ 731 ___ 1953 Roger Smith ___________204 _248 _228 __680 __ 248 _242 _212 __702 _ 1382 __ 106 _168 _271__ 545 ____1927 ___ Normal _____________144 _220 _232 __ 596 __ 194 _082 _085 ___361 __ 957 __190 _242 _270__ 702 ___1659 maxim (2/4) ___________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 2222 Persistence ______________90 _186 _250 __ 526 ___112 _180 _154 __ 446 _ 972 __ 62 _ 98 _ 210 __ 370 ____1342 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS ___ Consensus ________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 1* __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*__ 0 __ 1 *___ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning ________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 2*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 StormchaserChuck ______1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 2*__ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 1 _____0 Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 2**__0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Feb ___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 21 of 36 ... 13 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 __ 4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ____2.5 - 0.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0 _2-0 ___ 1.0-0.0 =========================================================