Roger Smith

Probably this will be the final result ... but I will check later data to be certain. <<< Probable Final Results of 2025 Seasonal Max Contest >>> Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in WxUSAF (4) ____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 1 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 1 0 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 1 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 0 0 ___2 (rank 4) ____0 toolsheds (12) ___________________99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 101 ___ 0 0 0 2 ___2 (rank 5) ____0 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 2 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 1 1 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 3 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 0 1 ___ 3 (rank 8)____0 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 1 0 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 1 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 0 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 0 2 ___ 4 (rank 10)____0 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 1 3 ___ 6 (rank 11)____ 0 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 __ 101 ___ 1 2 2 2 ___ 7 (rank 12) ____0 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 1 3 3 1 ___ 8 (rank 13) ____ 0 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 2 1 ___ 8 (rank 14) ____ 0 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 2 2 __ 10 (rank 15) ____ 0 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 3 1 __ 10 (rank 16) ____ 0 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 3 2 __ 10 (rank 17) ____ 0 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 3 1 __ 12 (rank 18) ____ 0 Miss Pixee (L-1) ________________ 104 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 5 4 3 1 __ 13 (rank 18.5) __ 0 gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 3 3 __ 15 (rank 19) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 4 4 __ 15 (rank 20)____ 0 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 5 4 __ 17 (rank 21) ____ 0 Jebman (L-2) __________________ 106 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 7 6 3 2 __ 18 (rank 22) ____ 0 ____________________________ Congrats (probably) to WxUSAF for a near-perfect call.

Note: after reading Don's later post on this subject, I checked my data and discovered a few additional 89s and 90s, Other than that it would appear our data largely match up. I have added a few details to the original post which follows ... At least 16 years have had a 90F or higher reading in astronomical autumn (not a precise measure but I counted only cases from Sep 21 onward). Those with an asterisk did not set a daily record or did not maintain it to present day. A few of these years (1895, 1914, 1941, 1970) had several days above 90. 1881 _ 91F Sep 26 1895 _ 95, 95, 97 Sep 21-23 and 90 Sep 26 1914 _ 94, 95, 92 Sep 21-23 1927 * _ 90F Oct 2 1931 * _ 92F Sep 22 1933 _ 90F Sep 27 1938 _ 90F Oct 17 1939 _ 91 Oct 10 1940 *_ 92 Sep 21 1941 _ 91 Sep 23, 94 90 Oct 5-6 1959 _ 90 Sep 23 1961 * _ 90 Sep 22 1970 _ 94 93 (87) 90 91 _ Sep 22-26 1980 *_ 94F Sep 22 2017 _ 91F Sep 24 2019 _ 93F Oct 2 In these years there were at least 26 days with 90+ readings and the average of all of them was 92. The highest was 97 (23rd 1895). So never say never to 90F. * to be clear about 1927, it holds a record of 88F for Oct 1st but lost its 90F record for the 2nd to 2019. The others marked (1931, 1940, 1961, 1980) were not records when they happened, as they were in the records set in 1895-1914-1970. Most of the 89F readings are not records either, the 1986 one is (Sep 30th). It was 88F as late as Oct 22nd 1979. That date also had the record high min of 67F in 1979. This was probably the latest calendar date to match modern normal temperatures in July (Nov 1-2 1950 were close). There were also 89s without any 90+ in 1922 (Oct 5), 1926 (Sep 25), 1958 (Sep 26), 1986 (Sep 30), 1998 (Sep 27) and 2010 (Sep 25). ... (89s with 90+ in same year) ... There was an 89F on Sep 25 1881 and two in 1959 with the 90F between them, on Sep 22, 24. Also there was an 89F on Sep 23, 2019. There were 88F readings as follows ... Sep 28, 1881; Sep 30, 1905, Sep 24, 1920; Oct 2, 1922; Oct 1, 1927; Oct 4, 1941; Oct 7, 1944; Sep 29, 1945; Oct 10, 1949; Oct 6, 1959; Sep 21, 1965; Oct 22, 1979; Sep 25, 2017. Years where max Sep 21 and later was 87F include 1891 (9/26 and 10/5), 1897 (10/16), 1919 (Oct 3), 1930 (Sep 25), 1946 (Oct 6), 1954 (Oct 13), 1968 (Sep 22, 25), 2007 (Sep 26, Oct 8) and 2016 (Sep 23); There are other 87s that I do not list here, in years already identified above with higher readings than 87. I would say 85 and 86 are frequent enough that they form a median for all years in regard to warmest temperature after Sep 20, but quite a few years never broke 80 in the part of the year after Sep 20th. The last 80+ reading of 2021 was Sep 18th.

Just looking at maps and seeing remnants of the southwestern storm moisture over n/c AZ where it's only in the mid-60s. Then I looked over at Colorado and there's one station reporting 21/15 ... is that for real or is it a Celsius conversion that's not supposed to be on the map? The station is ABH -- is that on top of a mountain or what's going on there? (data on mesoscale maps on SPC site as of past hour 19z)

I try to remember to post these on the first but anyway here we go ... <<<< SEPTEMBER daily records, NYC >>>> Date ___ Hi max __ Hi min ___ Low max _ Low min ___ 1d rain __ 2d rain __ notes Sep 01 __ 97 1953 __ 76 1898^_____ 59 1869 __ 51 1869 _______ 7.13 2021 _ 7.13 2021 Sep 02 _102 1953 __ 79 1898 _____ 62 1869 __ 51 1886 _______ 2.12 1899 _ 7.23 2021 Sep 03 __ 99 1929 __ 78 1898 _____ 62 1935 __ 50 1885, 93 ___ 3.32 1969 _ 3.44 1974 (0.18+3.26) Sep 04 __ 97 1929 __ 78 1898 _____ 66 1984 __ 47 1872, 83 ___ 3.48 1913 _ 6.28 1969 Sep 05 __ 94 1985 __ 77 1898 _____ 62 1926 __ 51 1963 ________2.45 1878 _ 4.14 1913 Sep 06 __ 97 1881 __ 78 1985 ______ 56 1963 __ 48 1924 _______3.26 2008 _ 3.54 2008 __ 3.22 2011 (1d) Sep 07 __101 1881 __ 79 1881 _______ 63 1877,88 _46 1888 _____ 2.07 1998 _ 4.43 2011 (3.22 + 1.21) Sep 08 __ 97 2015 __ 76 2015 _______ 63 1918 __ 52 1871 ______ 4.86 1934 _ 5.48 1934 __ 3.77 2004 (1d) Sep 09 __ 94 1915 __ 77 1884 _______ 61 1880,83 _48 1883 _____0.86 1902 _ 4.86 1934** Sep 10 __ 97 1931,83 _77 1884 ______ 62 1883 __ 43 1883 ______ 1.80 2023 _ 1.82 2023 Sep 11 __ 99 1931,83 _ 78 1983 ______61 1876,1914 _43 1917 (62)__ 2.90 1954 _ 3.46 2023 _ (3.30 1954) Sep 12 __ 94 1961 __ 77 1895 _______ 62 1883 __ 46 1917 ________2.35 1960 _ 3.23 1882 Sep 13 __ 94 1952 __ 75 1890 _______ 59 1965 __ 46 1963 _______3.94 1944 _ 5.58 1944 __ 3.37 1889 2d Sep 14 __ 93 1931 __ 74 1947 _______ 60 1873 _____46 1911, 75 ___3.82 1944 _ 7.76 1944 _ 3.10 1945 (1d) Sep 15 __ 92 1927 __ 75 1931,2005 _ 57 1954 _____44 1873 ______4.16 1933 _ 7.00 1933 Sep 16 __ 93 1915 __ 73 1903,2005 _ 60 1872 _____47 1966 ______5.02 1999 _ 5.44 1999 __ 4.38 1933 (2d) Sep 17 __ 93 1991 __ 77 1991 ________ 57 1945 _____45 1986 ______3.37 1876 _ 4.14 1874 __ 3.28 1874 (1d) Sep 18 __ 91 1891 __ 72 1905, 72 ____ 60 1875 _____44 1990 ______3.92 1936 _ 6.23 1874 Sep 19 __ 94 1983 __ 74 1906 _______ 51 1875^____ 44 1929 ______4.30 1894 _ 5.16 1894 __ 3.95 1936 (2d) Sep 20 __ 93 1895, 1983_77 1906 _____59 1901 _____44 1993 ______2.32 1989 _ 4.21 1989 Sep 21 __ 95 1895 __ 77 1895 ________56 1871 _____40 1871 _______5.54 1966 _ 5.74 1938 __ 4.05 1938 (1d) Sep 22 __ 95 1895,1914_75 1895 ______55 1875,1904__41 1904 ______2.34 1882 _ 5.64 1966 __ 3.55 1882 (2d) Sep 23 __ 97 1895 __ 77 1970 _______57 1963 _____ 41 1947 ______ 8.28 1882__10.62 1882 __ 2.72 1919 (1d) Sep 24 __ 91 2017 __ 74 1970 _______ 52 1887 _____40 1963 ______ 2.26 1975 _ 8.30 1882 __ 4.56 1975 (2d) Sep 25 __ 90 1970 __ 71 1881,1970 __ 53 1879 _____40 1887 _______2.36 1940 _ 3.31 1975 __ 7.43" 4d total 23-26 1975 Sep 26 __ 91 1881, 1970_74 1895 _____ 54 2000 _____42 1940 ______ 2.34 2008 _ 2.87 1975 __ 2.35" 1991 (1.97+0.38) Sep 27 __ 90 1933 __ 75 1881 ______ 56 1893 _____41 1947, 57 ____ 3.13 1985 _ 3.58 1985 Sep 28 __ 88 1881 __ 72 1891 ______ 53 1984 _____41 1947 ________ 3.84 2004 _ 3.84 2004 Sep 29 __ 88 1945 __ 72 1959,2015 _ 53 1888 ____ 42 1888,1914,42 __5.48 2023 _ 5.84 2023^ _ Sep 30 __ 89 1986 __ 70 1959 ______ 52 1888 ____ 39 1912 (hi 60)__ 2.64 1983 _ 2.64 1983 __ 2.21 1920 (1d) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- For 2d rainfalls, which are always total of previous date and current date in table, ^symbol means all rain fell on that day only, and ** symbol means all rain fell the previous day with zero added on date in table. some other notes 1st high min shared 1898, 1980, 2010, 2015 2nd, 3rd 1953 min 77, 77. also 75 on 3rd, 1973. 2nd __ note also 3.00 2-3 for 1899 3rd 2d rain 1969 3.45" (0.11 + 3.32) .01" less than 1974 2d. 1st-7th hot in 1898: 93, 93, 93, 92, 90, 88, 88 (no records though, set or shared high min 1st-5th) 5th high min shared 1898, 1907, 1985, 2018 9th 0.82" is lowest daily precip record of the calendar year. 14th 2d rain 1971 4.34 (0.58 + 3.76) ... 3d 12th-14th 6.10" 19th min with record low max was 45 (one higher than daily low min) 20-21 1938 the 2d rainfall total occurred with stalled fronts associated with the "Long Island Express" hurricane, with rain on 19th added the three day total was 7.50" and a further 0.63" fell on 17th-18th. The heavier rainfall on 21st 1966 pushed the daily max of 4.05" out of the record column. The 1966 rainfall was not of tropical storm origins. The 2d total for 20-21 was 5.56" (only 0.02" added from 20th) which did not quite exceed the 2d total for 1938. 28-29 4.68 2004 (3.84+0.82) and 28-29 another heavy 2d rainfall was 3.04" in 1907 (0.91+2.13). 29 record rainfall before 2023 was 2.18" 1963

Today Ashcroft BC reported 40.6 C. That may not be the highest, may see a more complete list later.

"1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut." Plenty of cancelled flights, no doubt.

Yes it was crazy hot here and will be for several more days. Also in eastern WA, Spokane had a record high of 99F (previous 97F 1988) and on the regional roundup it was 101 at CDA and 100 at Colville WA which is just south of my location. A lot of small fires in that area too, nothing really close to my location. Quite a lot of forest fire smoke developing across Alberta now from fires in the Rockies and north central BC. Some of that smoke could appear in parts of the central U.S. soon.

Don, as you were saying a few days ago, records are tumbling in the western interior regions and I think it's close to certain that in Canada we would break the monthly record of 38+ C you mentioned (from Ontario in 1881) ... where I live it feels very close to 40 C today, waiting to see what records were broken when they do the weather segment on our local news (they are pretty diligent at reporting records). I will post any that I see although I know you have sources for them. It was hot like this at the opening of Sept 2016 also, and eventually I think that spread east.

Four Seasons Winter, Spring, Summer 2024-2025 scoring 12 pts to winner, 10 down to 1 point for rest of field, and 1 point for all entrants with at least 2 of 3 contests entered. (said I would add this to annual scoring, it may eventually get moved there but for your current interest I have posted it today ... annual leader Tom had a low score in Dec 2024 which explains how this is closer than the points contest for annual 2025) ____________________________ winter ___________ spring _________ summer________ FORECASTER _____________TOTAL __pts___TOTAL _pts __ Jun Jul Aug_ TOTAL _pts __ TOTAL Points ___ Consensus ___________ 1771 __ 9.7 ____ 1767 ___7.4 __ 760 788 540 _ 2088_ 10 ___27.1 Tom _______________________1417 ___ 1 _____ 2053 __ 12 ____788 780 586 _ 2154 __12 ___ 25 so_whats_happening ______1662 ___ 8 ____ 1805 ___ 8 ____ 724 774 540 _ 2038 _ 8 ____24 Don Sutherland1 __________ 1587 ___ 5 _____1733 ___ 6 ____ 742 774 572 _ 2088 _ 10 ____21 Scotty Lightning __________ 1542 ___ 4 _____1741 ___ 7 ____ 766 758 528 _ 2052 _ 9 ____ 20 RJay ______________________ 1703 ___ 9 ____ 1689 ___ 5 ____ 758 746 468 _ 1972 _ 5 ____ 19 StormchaserChuck _______ 1328 ___ 1 _____1953 ___10 ____ 718 724 568 _ 2010 _ 7 ____ 18 BKViking __________________1805 __ 12 ____ 1621 ____ 4 ____ 692 --- --- ___ 692 _ 0 ____ 16 hudsonvalley21 ____________1532 ___ 3 ____ 1933 ___ 9 ____ 740 758 452 _ 1950 _ 4 ____ 16 wxallannj __________________1800 __ 10 ____ 1561 ____ 3 ____732 728 446 _ 1906 _ 2 ____ 15 wxdude64 ________________ 1653 ___ 7 _____ 1436 ___ 1 ____ 724 746 510 _ 1980 _ 6 ____ 14 Roger Smith _______________ 1617 ___ 6 _____ 1368 ___ 1 ____ 686 800 394 _ 1880 _ 1 ____ 8 RodneyS __________________ 1488 ___ 2 _____1474 ____ 2 ___ 648 640 650 _ 1938 _ 3 ____ 7 ___ Normal _______________ 1387 ___ 1 _____ 1440 ____1 ____ 612 616 550 _ 1778 _ 1 ____ 3 (Yoda 542 Aug) ___________________________ Several with a chance of winning this in the last seasonal addition at end of NOV.

Table of forecasts for September 2025 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.3 _-0.2 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 yoda _________________________ +0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.4_+0.9 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+1.4 _+2.7 DonSutherland1 ______________+0.2 _ -0.1 _ 0.0 _ +0.4 _+0.3 _+0.8__+1.8 _+1.7 _+3.2 RJay _________________________+0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 _ 0.0 _ +1.1 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ____________________ -0.2 _-0.4 _-0.3 _-0.8 _+0.2 _+0.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ Consensus ______________-0.2_-0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _ 0.0 _ +0.9 __+1.0_+1.4_+1.9 so_whats_happening ________-0.3 __0.0 _ +0.2 _+0.3 _-0.5 _ -0.5 __+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 Tom _________________________ -0.9 _-1.2 _ -1.1 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.6 _+1.8 BKViking _____________________-1.9 _ -2.1 _ -1.8 _ -2.3 _-0.5 _-0.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _ +0.4 RodneyS _____________________-2.3 _ -0.9 _-0.8 _ -2.2 _-2.3 _+0.9 __+0.3 _+0.5 _+1.8 wxdude64 ___________________-2.5 _ -1.6 _ -0.9 _ -2.6 _-0.8 _ +0.5 __-0.6 _+0.7 _+1.9 StormchaserChuck1 _________ -2.6 _ -2.0 _-1.6 _ -3.5 _-0.8 _ -0.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+3.0 ============ ___ Persistence _______________ -3.6 _-2.3 _-2.1 __-0.5 _-2.0 _+1.7 __+0.9 _+3.8 _+1.4 ________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts (not including Persistence) are color coded. Normal is also coldest for PHX and SEA. Persistence is colder than all forecasts for NYC and BOS, and warmer for IAH and PHX. (by small margins except for PHX)

So, all scoring is updated, you can find both the August and the annual scoring back before the September forecast posts (which began with Scotty Lightning) ... what was the intro to September post, if you even saw that, is now seasonal max scoring, and what used to be that is now the annual update appearing after the August scores. I will add a four seasons update to the annual update in a day or two. In general the scoring was a bit down from the July point-fest, and RodneyS had a bit of an edge on the field, moving up two spots as a result. There are a few other minor changes but Tom remains comfortably in front, with 2nd and 3rd being exchanged by a few points differential (so_whats_happening edged past hudsonvalley21). Also moving up, no big surprise, a certain Don Sutherland. Meanwhile, bottoming out, well let's not get hung up on details here.

I sort of expect a mid-month reversal from west/warm east/cool to the opposite, but perhaps the west will hold on to warmth anyway, going to go with 1.0 _ 1.0 _ 1.0 _ 1.5 _ 1.5 _ 1.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 2.0

Willing to bet there will be a notable warm spell in the northeast US in late September lasting into early October. It will take a while for the western ridge to deflate but it won't be there longer than 2-3 weeks.

And we have a sure winner here: 1. Don't know 2. Don't know 3. Don't know But I will be a sport and make some entirely uneducated guesses. ... Karen to become a cat-4 in early October after forming in late September. ... also nagging you to keep your social distance (too soon?)

Current scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025 TABLE of ERRORS to date _ _ _ _ errors in italics can only increase (forecasts lower than actual or equal) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34 Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23 hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22 so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 ___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21 DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19 RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17 wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19 ... will be adjusted whenever seasonal max change at locations ... ... BOS can no longer affect contest standings (all forecasts already passed) (forecasts) Table of forecasts for Seasonal Max 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

Last 90 F (or higher) reading at NYC in the period 1970 to 2024 Aug 10 or earlier __ 1975 (Aug 5th), 1981 (Aug 10th), 1982 (07-27), 1986 (07-26)^ 1999 (Aug 5th), 2000 (Aug 9th), 2001 (10th), 2006 (3rd), 2007 (8th), 2011 (8th), Aug 11-15 _________ 1988 (15th), 1994 (14th) Aug 16-20 ________ 1984 (16th), 1987 (18th), 1997 (17th), 2009 (19th), Aug 21-25 ________ 1974 (24th), 1976 (23rd), 1978 (24th), 1996 (23rd), 2003 (22nd), Aug 26-31 ________ 1990 (27th), 1992 (26th), 2004 (28th), 2020 (27th), 2021 (27th), 2024 (28th) Sep 1-5 ___________ 1973 (4th), 1977 (3rd), 1979 (4th), 2008 (4th), 2012 (1st), 2022 (4th) Sep 6-10 __________ 1971 (9th), 1985 (6th), 1998 (6th), 2002 (10th), 2010 (8th), 2014 (6th), 2015 (9th), 2016 (10th), 2018 (6th), 2023 (8th), Sep 11-15 __________ 1989 (11th), 1993 (15th), 1995 (14th), 2005 (13th), 2013 (11th), Sep 16 or later _____1970 (26th), 1972 (17th), 1980 (22nd), 1983 (20th), 1991 (17th), 2017 (24th), 2019 (Oct 2nd) _____________ ^ 1986 had 89F on Sep 30. Median is Sep 1, average of 55 days is Aug 30. (for 1991-2024 median is Sep 2.5 and the average is Sep 2) There is a 50-50 chance of last 90 being before or after Labor Day weekend in the recent data and even way back, 47 of the 101 years not in the above list had a 90 in Sep or Oct, including every year 1936 to 1946, three of which were in October (1938, 1939, 1941). 1947 had a very warm autumn too but its September max was 89F. Despite that, the average high from Aug 31 to Sep 19 was 84F and October 1947 was warmest on record. I believe it was a bad season for forest fires in the eastern U.S.

For NYC it was September 4th. I think you wanted to know for JFK, I don't have the data but would bet it works out close to that.

_________Table of current forecast errors (over and above current count 12 4 3) ____________ ... ... ... alternate scoring in brackets is for 12 5 3 which would occur if Lorenzo becomes a hurricane. ... ... ... ... second alternate is for addition of 13th named storm which one way or another takes count to 13 5 3 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ errors to date __ points deducted _ TOTAL SCORE FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________TS _ H _ M _ errors (scoring) _ 12 4 3 (alt 12 5 3) (2nd alt 13 5 3) matty40s (NW-3) __________________________ 10 __ 7 _ 3 __-27.5 _-28_-6___ 39.5 (46.5)_ (51.5) Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 9 __ 6 _ 1 __-22.5 _-21_-1 ___ 55.5 (61.5)_ (66) Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 8 __ 7 _ 0___-18 _-28_0 ____ 54 _ (61) _(65) CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 8 __ 6 _ 1___-18 _-21_-1 ____ 60 _ (66) _(70) The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) _______________8 __ 5 _ 2___-18 _-15_-3____ 64 _ (69) _(73) NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________7 __4 _ 2___-14 _-10_-3 ____ 73 _ (77) _ (80.5) marsman (14) _______________________________7 __ 1 _ 0___-14 _ -1 _ 0 _____ 85 _ (86) _ (89.5) ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 6 __ 6 _ 2___-10.5_-21_-3 __ 65.5 (71.5) __(74.5) Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 6 __ 6 _ 1___-10.5_-21_-1 __ 67.5 (73.5) __(76.5) Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) _______________ 6 __ 6 _ 0___-10.5_-21_ 0 ___ 68.5 (74.5) __(77.5) hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 2___-10.5_-15_-3 __ 71.5 (76.5) __ (79.5) Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 1___-10.5_ -15_-1 __ 73.5 (78.5) __ (81.5) nvck (32) ___________________________________ 6 __ 5 _ 1___ -10.5_-15_-1 __ 73.5 (78.5) __ (81.5) WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________5 __ 8 _ 3___ -7.5_-36_-6___50.5 (58.5) __ (61) Tallis Rockwell (18) _________________________ 5 __ 7 _ 2___ -7.5_-28_-3___61.5 (68.5) __ (71) Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________5 __ 5 _ 1___ -7.5_-15_-1____76.5 (81.5) __ (84) yoda (22) ___________________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___ -7.5_-15_-1____76.5 (81.5) __ (84) ___ consensus __ (median) ___________________5 __ 5 _ 1___ -7.5_-15_-1____76.5 (81.5) __ (84) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 2___-7.5_-10_-3___79.5 (83.5)__ (86) BarryStantonGBP (1) _________________________5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88) wxallannj (21) ________________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88) jmearroz (31) _________________________________5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88) George BM (35) ______________________________5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88) Kaari (NW-7) _________________________________5 __ 4 _ 1___ -7.5_-10_-1____81.5 (85.5)__ (88) cnimbus (6) __________________________________5 __ 3 _ 1___ -7.5_-6_-1 ____ 85.5 (88.5) __ (91) FPizz (9) _____________________________________5 __ 3 _ 1___ -7.5_-6_-1 ____ 85.5 (88.5) __ (91) wxdude64 (28) ______________________________ 5__ 3 _ 0___ -7.5_-6_ 0 ____ 86.5 (89.5) __ (92) jconsor (3) ___________________________________ 4 __ 5 _ 2___ -5_-15_-3 ___ 77 _ (82)__ (84) BKViking (29) ________________________________ 4 __ 5 _ 1___ -5_-15_-1 ____ 79 _ (84)__ (86) ___ UKMO ____________________________________ 4 __ 5 _ 1___ -5_-15_-1 ____ 79 _ (84)__ (86) LakeNormanStormin (7) ______________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 _ (88)__ (90) Floydbuster (12) ______________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 _ (88)__ (90) WxWatcher007 (25) __________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 _ (88)__ (90) ___ NOAA _____________________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 1___ -5_-10_-1 ____ 84 _ (88)__ (90) Newman (15) __________________________________4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5 _-6 _0 ____ 89 _ (92)__ (94) vpbob21 (19) __________________________________ 3 __ 3 _ 1___ -3 _-6 _-1 ____ 90 _ (93)__ (94.5) ineedsnow (2) _________________________________3 __ 3 _ 0 ___-3 _-6 _0 ____ 91 _ (94)__ (95.5) cardinalland (14) _______________________________3 __ 2 _ 0 ___-3 _-3 _ 0 ____ 94 _ (96)__ (97.5) NC USGS^ (33) ________________________________ 2 __ 6 _ 1 ___-1.5_-21 _-1 ___ 76.5 (82.5) (83.5) Ga Wx (20) ____________________________________ 2 __ 5 _ 0___ -1.5_-15 _ 0 ___ 83.5 (88.5) (89.5) LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _______________________2 __ 4 _ 1___ -1.5_-10 _-1 ___ 87.5 (91.5) (92.5) Retrobuc (11) ___________________________________2 __ 2 _ 0___ -1.5_-3 _ 0 ___ 95.5 (97.5) (98.5) StormchaserChuck (23) _______________________ 1 __ 3 _ 1___ -0.5_-6 _-1 ___ 92.5 (95.5) (96) Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________________ 0 __ 5 _ 1___ 0 _ -15 _-1 ___ 84 _ (89)__ (88.5) Hotair (26) _____________________________________ 1 __ 0 _ 1 __ -0.5 _ 0 __-1 __ 98.5 (97.5) (96.5) ================= mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 4.8 _ 4.3 _ 1.0 = 100 -7 -12 -1 = 80 (85) (88) approx ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries ________________________________ Above represents storms still required. Because these are residues of initial forecasts, some are now inconsistent with possible reality, meaning more hurricanes than storms (nobody is yet stuck with more majors than hurricanes required). The scores based on this being end of season are shown. These scores can still improve going forward (except where errors are now zero or +1 shown in red type for two forecasts of 2 majors and now also one forecast of 11 storms (count has reached 12) -- these are the first forecasts to fall below the current count). Scores will be shown in rank order as we get closer to end of contest season. (Scoring is based on a formula where errors (E) are scored by (E+E^2)/2 in each category, with storms then divided again by 2. An error of 3 _ 2 _ 1 is scored 100 - (0.5) * ((3+9)/2) - ((2+4)/2) - ((1+1)/2) 100 - (0.5) * 6 - 3.0 - 1.0 100 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 1.0 = 93.0

If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list 02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don 03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don 05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __ 07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don 08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __ 08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __ 10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don 10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don 10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don 13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __ 14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don 15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __ 16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __ 16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __ 18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __ 19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __ 20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __ 21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don 22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __ 23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __ 24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __ 24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __ 26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __ 27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __ 27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don 27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __ 30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __ 31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __ 32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __ 33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __ 35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __ 35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __ 37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __ 38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __ This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index.

NYC high of 70F was not quite a record low max (68F 1990, 2000). Today (21st) won't break the record low max either, since it was 59F in 2007 (tied with Aug 31, 1911 as lowest of all maxima in August). Record low minima for 21st to 23rd are 53 (1922), 52 (1895) and 51 (1923). Highs associated with them are in the low 70s F and not record low maxima. This indicates they were all intrusions of fall-like cooler air from the northwest and not like 21st-22nd 2007 held down by cloud and northeast winds. (max on 22nd 2007 was also a record low 65F).

1991 28th and 2002 33rd in my list; bearing in mind there really isn't much differential from about 20th to 40th, and the older years get a boost of 2 F compared to anything recent. Without that boost, about six fall out of the top 20 and all these 20-30 ranked years move up that many ranks at least. I am somewhat conflicted about applying any urban heat correction, the positive is that it allows a better assessment of climate change from other sources, the negative is that people alive in those earlier years experienced actual temperatures shown in my tables and people nowadays 2 F warmer than shown. In between, like around the 1930s, the differential was closer to 1 F. Perhaps the annual average is 2 F but seasonal differences are not all exactly the same, and I should retool the comparisons based on seasonal ranges. Summer is probably the season I would reduce the boost, and winter I might increase it, leaving it as is for spring and autumn. That would likely move 1876 down a few rungs, as well as 1906, 1908 and 1870. Oddly, while urban heat island increase is supposed to give a larger increase in overnight minima, the years making it into the top ten are known mainly for warm nights back in the early phase of NYC's urbanization. These years may have resembled 2025 more than the really hot summers of recent decades (a steady dull warmth).

Don's top ten summers 2010 1966 1993 1995 1999 1980 1988 1949 2011 1994 Their ranks in my table __ 2 __ 3 __ 11 ___ 24 __ 21 __ 14 __ 22 __ 06 __ 36 __ 30 LB favorites 1944 and 1983 finished 8 and 12. I'm not sure whether Don considered summers before 1949 in his top ten listing, or where in time his list begins, would be interesting to find out where some of my top ten (1876, 1906, 1908) finished in his list. But in general I think cool starts to June are the main determining factor in placing a given summer lower on my list, that part of summer rarely produces much of the heat content that Don's method was measuring; also, if September heat was included, none of that would affect my rankings. Even without Sep 1-3, 1953 ranked 29th. The four worst modern summers were 2009, 2000, 1992 and 1996.

In my Toronto-NYC climate study (in climate change forum) this is how I ranked the seasons after making adjustments for urban heat island. I rated the heat island at 0.2 F or 0.1 C deg every decade, until 1980, after which I held it steady ... so data from 1981 to 2025 is reduced by 2 F or 1.1 C, 1971-80 by 1.0 C, 1961-70 by 0.9 C, etc, until one reaches 1869-80 which is not reduced at all. I am going to check this against Don's list for summers. <<< Ranked seasonal means for NYC (adjusted for urban heat island) >>> 156 years are ranked. The median position is average of 78th warmest and coldest. Warmest seasons are at the top of these ranked tables; coldest are at the bottom. Ties are not directly indicated and are listed in chronological order. __ Winter 2024-25 will enter table 74th warmest 0.47 C . 2025 median is 79th warmest and coldest. __ Spring 2025 will enter the table 14th warmest 11.58 C. __ Summer 2025 is headed for a finish near 23.30 C which would be 38th warmest, but many years are jammed into a narrow range between 30th and 50th. warmest ................................................................................................ coldest RANK ___ winter _________ spring _______ summer _____ autumn ______ RANK _01 __ 2001-2002 4.20 __ 2010 12.86 __ 1876 24.46 __ 1931 15.98 ___ 156 _02 __ 2022-2023 3.92 __ 2012 12.75 __ 2010 24.34 __ 1900 15.52 ___ 155 _03 __ 1931-1932 3.90 __ 1991 12.42 __ 1966 24.28 __ 2015 15.44 ___ 154 _04 __ 2015-2016 3.90 __ 1921 12.41 __ 2005 23.94 __ 1961 15.30 ___ 153 _05 __ 2023-2024 3.66 __ 2024 12.34 __1908 24.26 __ 1946 15.23 ___ 152 _06 __ 2011-2012 3.62 __ 1945 12.24 __ 1949 24.22 __ 1941 14.98 ___ 151 _07 __ 1889-1890 3.51 __ 1903 12.03 __ 1906 24.11 __ 1881 14.97 ___ 150 _08 __ 1879-1880 3.28 __ 1985 11.98 __ 1944 24.02 __ 1953 14.90 ___ 149 _09 __ 1997-1998 3.14 __ 1977 11.87 __ 1943 23.93 __ 1948 14.74 ___ 148 _10 __ 2016-2017 2.95 __ 1986 11.79 __ 1870 23.85 __ 2017 14.68 ___ 147 _11 __ 1948-1949 2.91 __ 1979 11.74 __ 1993 23.84 __ 2024 14.66 ___ 146 _12 __ 1990-1991 2.88 __ 2016 11.68 __ 1983 23.83 __ 1902 14.61 ___ 145 _13 __ 2019-2020 2.88 __ 2023 11.66 __ 2020 23.83 __ 1979 14.61 ___ 144 _14 __ 1936-1937 2.66 __ 1942 11.54 __ 1980 23.80 __ 2005 14.60 ___ 143 _15 __ 1932-1933 2.64 __ 1946 11.54 __ 1939 23.79 __ 1908 14.55 ___ 142 _16 __ 1952-1953 2.61 __ 1998 11.43 __ 1952 23.79 __ 2016 14.53 ___ 141 _17 __ 1998-1999 2.60 __ 1910 11.38 __ 1899 23.78 __ 1898 14.51 ___ 140 _18 __ 1912-1913 2.45 __ 2021 11.37 __ 1872 23.76 __ 1971 14.45 ___ 139 _19 __ 1949-1950 2.34 __ 1981 11.36 __ 2016 23.75 __ 1985 14.46 ___ 138 _20 __ 1905-1906 2.31 __ 1878 11.26 __ 2022 23.75 __ 1927 14.44 ___ 137 _21 __ 1908-1909 2.29 __ 1871 11.22 __ 1999 23.73 __ 1990 14.42 ___ 136 _22 __ 1897-1898 2.28 __ 1969 11.19 __ 1988 23.70 __ 2020 14.40 ___ 135 _23 __ 1953-1954 2.20 __ 2004 11.18 __ 2024 23.68 __ 1959 14.37 ___ 134 _24 __ 1982-1983 2.18 __ 1955 11.16 __ 1995 23.64 __ 1884 14.34 ___ 133 _25 __ 1918-1919 2.17 __ 1987 11.16 __ 1955 23.63 __ 2007 14.33 ___ 132 _26 __ 1996-1997 2.14 __ 2022 11.14 __ 2015 23.53 __ 1970 14.32 ___ 131 _27 __ 1974-1975 2.05 __ 1949 11.12 __ 1973 23.52 __ 1968 14.28 ___ 130 _28 __ 1951-1952 1.98 __ 1962 11.12 __ 1991 23.51 __ 2011 14.27 ___ 129 _29 __ 1891-1892 1.87 __ 1959 11.11 __ 1953 23.49 __ 2001 14.25 ___ 128 _30 __ 2005-2006 1.84 __ 2006 11.11 __1994 23.45 __ 1983 14.20 ___ 127 _31 __ 1991-1992 1.81 __ 1918 11.10 __ 1971 23.42 __ 1947 14.19 ___ 126 _32 __ 2021-2022 1.75 __ 1980 11.09 __ 1900 23.34 __ 1973 14.19 ___ 125 _33 __ 1994-1995 1.74 __ 1913 11.08 __ 2002 23.33 __ 2021 14.18 ___ 124 _34 __ 2012-2013 1.59 __ 2000 11.07 __ 1961 23.32 __ 1920 14.05 ___ 123 _35 __ 1868-1869 1.54 __ 1938 11.01 __ 1938 23.31 __ 1915 14.04 ___ 122 _36 __ 1959-1960 1.54 __ 1908 10.99 __ 2011 23.31 __ 1949 14.04 ___ 121 _37 __ 1950-1951 1.40 __ 2011 10.96 __ 2021 23.31 __ 1994 14.01 ___ 120 _38 __ 1869-1870 1.39 __ 1929 10.95 __ 1937 23.29 __ 1905 13.98 ___ 119 _39 __ 1929-1930 1.37 __ 2002 10.92 __ 1901 23.27 __ 1906 13.98 ___ 118 _40 __ 2006-2007 1.36 __ 2015 10.92 __ 1892 23.26 __ 1960 13.98 ___ 117 _41 __ 1984-1985 1.35 __ 1953 10.88 __ 1896 23.26 __ 1912 13.97 ___ 116 _42 __ 2007-2008 1.35 __ 1880 10.81 __ 1898 23.25 __ 2022 13.95 ___ 115 _43 __ 1938-1939 1.29 __ 1922 10.81 __ 1981 23.25 __ 1982 13.94 ___ 114 _44 __ 1965-1966 1.28 __ 1936 10.79 __ 2018 23.23 __ 1954 13.92 ___ 113 _45 __ 1881-1882 1.27 __ 1976 10.78 __ 1885 23.21 __ 2010 13.92 ___ 112 _46 __ 2018-2019 1.27 __ 1889 10.72 __ 1957 23.20 __ 1957 13.88 ___ 111 _47 __ 1999-2000 1.23 __ 1957 10.72 __ 2013 23.18 __ 1938 13.86 ___ 110 _48 __ 1956-1957 1.18 __ 1973 10.72 __ 2019 23.12 __ 1878 13.85 ___ 109 _49 __ 1875-1876 1.17 __ 1941 10.71 __ 1930 23.11 __ 2023 13.83 ___ 108 _50 __ 2020-2021 1.16 __ 1963 10.68 __ 1970 23.10 __ 1963 13.79 ___ 107 _51 __ 1920-1921 1.14 __ 1951 10.65 __ 1880 23.09 __ 1921 13.78 ___ 106 _52 __ 1873-1874 1.11 ___ 2009 10.64 __ 1959 23.09 __ 1930 13.78 ___ 105 _53 __ 1971-1972 1.09 __ 2019 10.64 __ 1877 23.07 __ 1942 13.76 ___ 104 _54 __ 1988-1989 1.09 __ 1964 10.62 __ 2012 23.07 __ 1945 13.76 ___ 103 _55 __ 1928-1929 1.00 __ 1919 10.58 __ 1882 23.05 __ 1975 13.76 ___ 102 _56 __ 2017-2018 0.96 __ 1999 10.58 __ 1969 23.04 __ 1870 13.73 ___ 101 _57 __ 1989-1990 0.95 __ 1968 10.56 __ 1917 23.01 __ 1895 13.73 ___ 100 _58 __ 1972-1973 0.94 __ 1925 10.54 __ 1934 23.01 __ 1896 13.71 ____ 99 _59 __ 1927-1928 0.93 __ 1974 10.54 __ 2008 23.01 __1998 13.69 ____ 98 _60 __ 1923-1924 0.91 __ 1990 10.53 __ 1931 22.99 __ 1952 13.68 ____ 97 _61 __ 1979-1980 0.89 __ 1996 10.53 __ 1895 22.97 __ 1919 13.67 ____ 96 _62 __ 1946-1947 0.86 __ 1993 10.51 __ 1932 22.97 __ 1999 13.66 ____ 95 _63 __ 1973-1974 0.85 __ 2020 10.51 __ 1894 22.95 __ 1899 13.63 ____ 94 _64 __ 2004-2005 0.79 __ 1902 10.42 __1933 22.93 __ 1891 13.61 ____ 93 _65 __ 1877-1878 0.72 __ 1994 10.40 __ 1905 22.91 __ 1944 13.60 ____ 92 _66 __ 1914-1915 0.71 __ 1965 10.39 __ 1878 22.90 __ 1950 13.60 ____ 91 _67 __ 1983-1984 0.70 __ 1894 10.34 __ 1977 22.87 __ 1922 13.59 ____ 90 _68 __ 1937-1938 0.68 __ 2007 10.33 __ 1987 22.79 __ 1934 13.58 ____ 89 _69 __ 1890-1891 0.61 __ 1897 10.32 __ 2001 22.75 __1909 13.55 ____ 88 _70 __ 1899-1900 0.60 __ 1879 10.31 __ 1935 22.73 __ 1984 13.53 ____ 87 _71 __ 1992-1993 0.57 __ 2001 10.31 __ 2006 22.73 __ 1910 13.50 ____ 86 _72 __ 1895-1896 0.50 __ 2008 10.31 __ 1925 22.68 __ 2006 13.47 ____ 85 _73 __ 1986-1987 0.48 __ 1952 10.29 __ 1883 22.66 __ 1914 13.45 ____ 84 _74 __ 1930-1931 0.41 __ 1988 10.29 __ 1990 22.64 __ 1932 13.45 ____ 83 _75 __ 1907-1908 0.40 __ 2017 10.29 __ 1891 22.63 __ 2014 13.45 ____ 82 _76 __ 1987-1988 0.38 __ 1982 10.25 __ 1936 22.62 __ 1897 13.43 ____ 81 _77 __ 1975-1976 0.33 __ 1954 10.16 __ 1968 22.62 __ 1916 13.42 ____ 80 _78 __ 1888-1889 0.31 __ 1896 10.15 __ 1911 22.60 __ 1928 13.39 ____ 79 median (avg) _79 __ 1924-1925 0.30 __ 1989 10.14 __ 1948 22.60 __ 1913 13.40 ____ 78 median (avg) _80 __ 1954-1955 0.29 __ 1898 10.12 __ 1941 22.58 __ 1969 13.38 ___ 77 _81 __ 1966-1967 0.27 __ 1983 10.11 __ 1913 22.56 __ 1991 13.38 ___ 76 _82 __ 1896-1897 0.21 __ 2018 10.10 __ 1907 22.55 __ 2019 13.38 ___ 75 _83 __ 2008-2009 0.14 __ 1886 10.03 __ 1929 22.55 __ 1935 13.36 ___ 74 _84 __ 1943-1944 0.06 __ 1905 10.03 __ 1873 22.54 __ 1955 13.25 ___ 73 _85 __ 1893-1894 -0.07 __ 1933 9.99 __ 1979 22.50 __ 1995 13.25 ___ 72 _86 __ 1910-1911 -0.07 __ 1970 9.99 __ 1921 22.48 __ 2004 13.25 ___ 71 _87 __ 2009-2010 -0.08 __ 2013 9.99 __ 1887 22.46 __ 1929 13.24 ___ 70 _88 __ 1940-1941 -0.13 __ 1935 9.97 __ 1974 22.45 __ 2013 13.23 ___ 69 _89 __ 1915-1916 -0.14 __ 1944 9.95 __ 1879 22.44 __ 1918 13.21 ___ 68 _90 __ 1957-1958 -0.15 __ 1930 9.94 __ 1967 22.44 __ 1877 13.18 ___ 67 _91 __ 1964-1965 -0.16 __ 1931 9.94 __ 2014 22.44 __ 2003 13.16 ___ 66 _92 __ 1961-1962 -0.18 __ 1948 9.91 __ 1923 22.43 __ 1879 13.15 ___ 65 _93 __ 1963-1964 -0.19 __ 1939 9.85 __ 1942 22.43 __ 2018 13.12 ___ 64 _94 __ 1941-1942 -0.20 __ 1966 9.84 __ 2023 22.42 __ 1923 13.11 ___ 63 _95 __ 2000-2001 -0.25 __ 1906 9.76 __ 1960 22.40 __ 1964 13.10 ___ 62 _96 __ 1902-1903 -0.28 __ 1899 9.74 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1965 13.10 ___ 61 _97 __ 1901-1902 -0.30 __ 1975 9.72 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1966 13.10 ___ 60 _98 __ 1985-1986 -0.30 __ 1912 9.65 __ 1951 22.37 __ 1958 13.09 ___ 59 _99 __ 1955-1956 -0.37 __ 1915 9.64 __ 1954 22.37 __ 2009 13.07 ___ 58 100 __ 1968-1969 -0.40 __ 1934 9.64 __ 1918 22.36 __ 1939 13.03 ___ 57 101 __ 1900-1901 -0.44 __ 2014 9.64 __ 1998 22.31 __ 1993 12.99 ___ 56 102 __ 1926-1927 -0.46 __ 1958 9.63 __ 1884 22.29 __ 1989 12.98 ___ 55 103 __ 1913-1914 -0.48 __ 1927 9.61 __ 1978 22.28 __ 1951 12.96 ___ 54 104 __ 1906-1907 -0.49 __ 1972 9.59 __ 1910 22.27 __ 1986 12.90 ___ 53 105 __ 1925-1926 -0.50 __ 2005 9.53 __ 1904 22.26 __ 1903 12.88 ___ 52 106 __ 1916-1917 -0.55 __ 1937 9.46 __ 1909 22.26 __ 1874 12.87 ___ 51 107 __ 1945-1946 -0.55 __ 1997 9.45 __ 1875 22.24 __ 2002 12.86 ___ 50 108 __ 1898-1899 -0.59 __ 1895 9.43 __ 1947 22.24 __ 1956 12.83 ___ 49 109 __ 2013-2014 -0.60 __ 1971 9.42 __ 1928 22.22 __ 1936 12.82 ___ 48 110 __ 1942-1943 -0.61 __ 1914 9.40 __ 1897 22.13 __ 1980 12.82 ___ 47 111 __ 1870-1871 -0.63 __ 1978 9.39 __ 1890 22.10 __ 2012 12.82 ___ 46 112 __ 1978-1979 -0.63 __ 1996 9.31 __ 1972 22.09 __ 1977 12.78 ___ 45 113 __ 2010-2011 -0.64 __ 1870 9.21 __ 1975 22.09 __ 1890 12.77 ___ 44 114 __ 1980-1981 -0.68 __ 1960 9.20 __ 1922 22.07 __ 1911 12.73 ___ 43 115 __ 1981-1982 -0.75 __ 2003 9.20 __ 1920 22.06 __ 1943 12.73 ___ 42 116 __ 1909-1910 -0.76 __ 1909 9.18 __ 1945 22.06 __ 1937 12.70 ___ 41 117 __ 1921-1922 -0.81 __ 1992 9.18 __ 1989 22.05 __ 1894 12.69 ___ 40 118 __ 1939-1940 -0.82 __ 1961 9.17 __ 1964 22.04 __ 1886 12.64 ___ 39 119 __ 1970-1971 -0.88 __ 1943 9.10 __ 1912 22.03 __ 1907 12.64 ___ 38 120 __ 2003-2004 -0.86 __ 1884 9.08 __ 1894 22.02 __ 1933 12.64 ___ 37 121 __ 1995-1996 -0.95 __ 1932 9.08 __ 1919 22.02 __ 1981 12.55 ___ 36 122 __ 1960-1961 -1.00 __ 1881 9.03 __ 2003 22.01 __ 2008 12.55 ___ 35 123 __ 1934-1935 -1.06 __ 1904 9.03 __ 1940 21.99 __ 1988 12.53 ___ 34 124 __ 1883-1884 -1.08 __ 1920 9.01 __ 1986 21.99 __ 1974 12.52 ___ 33 125 __ 1886-1887 -1.08 __ 1890 8.97 __ 1950 21.97 __ 1987 12.49 ___ 32 126 __ 1911-1912 -1.16 __ 1911 8.97 __ 1963 21.95 __ 1926 12.41 ___ 31 127 __ 1876-1877 -1.18 __ 1923 8.97 __ 2007 21.94 __ 1924 12.39 ___ 30 128 __ 1894-1895 -1.18 __ 1947 8.97 __ 1874 21.91 __ 1882 12.38 ___ 29 129 __ 1885-1886 -1.21 __ 1984 8.94 __ 1985 21.90 __ 1885 12.38 ___ 28 130 __ 1967-1968 -1.31 __ 1882 8.90 __ 1958 21.89 __ 1940 12.31 ___ 27 131 __ 2014-2015 -1.42 __ 1928 8.87 __ 1893 21.88 __ 1997 12.29 ___ 26 132 __ 1958-1959 -1.43 __ 1907 8.85 __ 1956 21.88 __ 2000 12.29 ___ 25 133 __ 1871-1872 -1.50 __ 1877 8.72 __ 1871 21.87 __ 1978 12.28 ___ 24 134 __ 1878-1879 -1.54 __ 1924 8.69 __ 1962 21.86 __ 1992 12.27 ___ 23 135 __ 1944-1945 -1.55 __ 1891 8.56 __ 1997 21.86 __ 1901 12.26 ___ 22 136 __ 2002-2003 -1.55 __ 1901 8.52 __ 2004 21.84 __ 1972 12.22 ___ 21 137 __ 1993-1994 -1.57 __ 1900 8.50 __ 1869 21.83 __ 1967 12.14 ___ 20 138 __ 1922-1923 -1.65 __ 1887 8.49 __ 1889 21.81 __ 1996 12.12 ___ 19 139 __ 1969-1970 -1.73 __ 1869 8.47 __ 1982 21.81 __ 1904 12.11 ___ 18 140 __ 1947-1948 -1.79 __ 1876 8.44 __ 1916 21.80 __ 1893 12.10 ___ 17 141 __ 1887-1888 -1.93 __ 1872 8.41 __ 1888 21.79 __ 1962 11.97 ___ 16 142 __ 1977-1978 -1.94 __ 1873 8.37 __ 1924 21.76 __ 1872 11.96 ___ 15 143 __ 1882-1883 -1.95 __ 1892 8.35 __ 1914 21.75 __ 1925 11.96 ___ 14 144 __ 1884-1885 -2.01 __ 1883 8.22 __ 1996 21.73 __ 1892 11.86 ___ 13 145 __ 1962-1963 -2.03 __ 1926 8.22 __ 1926 21.70 __ 1876 11.76 ___ 12 146 __ 1872-1873 -2.07 __ 1916 8.15 __ 1965 21.62 __ 1880 11.74 ___ 11 147 __ 1892-1893 -2.18 __ 1956 8.14 __ 1886 21.57 __ 1889 11.68 ___ 10 148 __ 1933-1934 -2.21 __ 1950 8.13 __ 1946 21.52 __ 1873 11.52 ___ 09 149 __ 1874-1875 -2.45 __ 1917 8.12 __ 1881 21,51 __ 1883 11.47 ___ 08 150 __ 1904-1905 -2.45 __ 1885 8.03 __ 1992 21.40 __ 1875 11.28 ___ 07 151 __ 1935-1936 -2.64 __ 1940 8.03 __ 1915 21.36 __ 1869 11.26 ___ 06 152 __ 1903-1904 -2.86 __ 1893 7.97 __ 2000 21.18 __ 1888 11.18 ___ 05 153 __ 1880-1881 -2.92 __ 1967 7.69 __ 2009 21.10 __ 1917 11.12 ___ 04 154 __ 1976-1977 -2.95 __ 1875 7.65 __ 1902 21.09 __ 1976 11.07 ___ 03 155 __ 1919-1920 -2.97 __ 1874 7.59 __ 1927 20.57 __ 1871 10.96 ___ 02 156 __ 1917-1918 -3.90 __ 1888 6.94 __ 1903 20.42 __ 1887 10.90 ___ 01 _________________________________________

I would go for 1.0 to 1.5 inch rainfalls on Wednesday into early Thursday, looks to me like Erin will pull in the frontal band rather than reinforcing it in place, so higher potential totals may not be in play. There will be some bracing weather by later Thursday into Friday, mid 70s with a strong northeast breeze, nights 45-50 outside the urban areas and 55-60 inside. A steady 68-70 F during the rainfall, but Wed max achieved before that, 73 F.

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Aug 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS Tom __________________ 519 _582 _616 __1717 __540 _518 _560__1618 _3335 __618 _566 _590__1774___5109 ___ Consensus ______ 489 _560 _574__1623__ 516 _572 _550__1638 _3261 __545 _572_650__1767 ___5028 so_whats_happening __525 _590 _542 __1657 __504 _586 _509__1599__3256 __532 _490 _630__1652___4908 hudsonvalley21 ______ 465 _554 _598 __1617 __466 _522 _567 __ 1555 __3172 __552 _534 _638__1724___4896 Scotty Lightning ______532 _564 _520 __1616 __427 _446 _570 __1443 _ 3059 __519 _612 _618 __1749___4808 DonSutherland1 ______ 437 _508 _542 __1487 __512 _540 _490__1542 _3029 __583 _530 _624__1737___4766 RJay _________________ 446 _567 _ 575__1588 __538 _598 _540__1676 _3264 __471 _471 _545__1487___4751 wxallannj _____________ 415 _490 _516 __1421 __490 _500 _532__1522 _ 2943 __546 _564 _599 __1709___4652 StormchaserChuck ___507 _550 _550 __1607 __414 _580 _ 447__1441 _ 3048 __ 517 _524 _527__1568___4616 RodneyS _____________ 494 _506 _562 __1562 __394 _468 _482__1344 _2906 __469 _502 _728__1699___4605 wxdude64 ____________442 _502 _500 __1444 __430_ 508 _494__1432 _2876__ 563 _552 _592__1707___4583 Roger Smith __________422 _492 _496 __1410 __492 _490 _494__1476 _2886 __390 _524 _583__ 1497___4383 ___ Normal ____________432 _504 _504 __1440 __418 _336 _329__1083__2523__550 _466 _596__ 1612___4135 BKViking (6/8) _______ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __398 _396 _419__1213___3459 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __4612 maxim (2/8) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __4444 Yoda _(1/8) ____________004 _044 _040 __ 088 __ 76 _ 42 _ 92 __ 210 ___ 298 __ 96 _ 56 _ 92 ___ 244 ___ 542 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __4336 Persistence ___________288 _404 _520 __1212 ___256 _334 _476 _1066 _2278__390 _418 _538 __1346 ____3624 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___ 2^___ 2 ____2 __ Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 1 *__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__0 __0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 1^__ 1^ __ 3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0____0 StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____ 2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____1 _ Jan RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __ 1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 _____2 _ May,Aug Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___2^__ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____2 _ Feb,Jul BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 40 of 72 ... 18 for warmest and 22 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1 and Aug 1-6. Forecaster ______________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 __10-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0 _ 7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0 ___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 __6-2 ___ 6.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 __ 5-1 ____ 5.0 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 __________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 maxim ____________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ______________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 __ 3-0 ____2.33-0.0 RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0 _ 3-0 ___ 1.5-0.0 so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0 __1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 =========================================================