
wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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Nice to see first flakes of season... light-moderate in Coolidge Corner, slushy coating on cars, 34F
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New England Winter 2024-25 Bantering, Whining, and Sobbing Thread
wxsniss replied to klw's topic in New England
Thoughts? Anyone try this? Part of me hopes this is just more typical hype than an actual game changer… I think we’d all miss the suspense and art of forecasting snow storms. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/science/google-ai-weather-forecast.html https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9 “ Here we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, ENS, the ensemble forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts4. GenCast is an ML weather prediction method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-h steps and 0.25° latitude–longitude resolution, for more than 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 min. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets we evaluated and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind power production.” -
Working out nicely for game... early cloud cover will mitigate temps, and we might get a nice canopy sunset later Never understood the flood watch outside of southern areas... NAM/HRRR were pretty good in timing of clearing, GFS was only guidance keeping significant activity into late afternoon
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Will be at Fenway Saturday 4pm game, first time for the kids... Don't like the sound of a Flood Watch through 8pm, but only 12z HREF still has some lingering rain east through most of the game (and backed off from 0z HREF) vs. NAM/3kNAM/HRRR clear it out a few hours earlier
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Impressive event to watch on radar I didn't measure but I'm guessing this was probably close to derecho criteria? 60 mile span with multiple mesovorts / bows, frequent gusts > 58 mph along most of its length, several gusts > 75 mph... but maybe was < 400 miles in duration? Outflow starting outpacing the band around Providence
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That crisp bowing heading for Duxbury is impressive That has potential for some rotation too
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Yeah didn't see any rotation on that warned area, bowing shape was more suspicious than anything Looks like this is dulling as it gets to coast for Boston area, still crisp further south Taunton area and east
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Just saw this... Funny at Prouty Beach in Newport, ~1-2 minutes before and after totality, a group of guys ran over to a snow pile yelling "snakes in the snow!". My wife for a moment thought they saw actual snakes. As @nrgjeff posted, must have been shadow bands. Here's a good example from Tennessee 2017 for those who haven't seen:
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So many great perspectives in this thread, and this another understated aspect of how this all implausibly came together perfectly: How the hell did NNE get such flawless weather? Literally the best in the nation. After such a wet winter. Multiple reports of people abandoning their Texas flights and driving up from Virginia/Carolinas to VT/NH/ME, or wagons east from NY: https://www.boston.com/community/tell-us/readers-cancelled-flights-to-texas-and-traveled-to-new-england-for-the-solar-eclipse/ I actually had trouble sleeping Saturday night giddy with what the Euro/GFS and then NAM/HRRR were locking in for cloud cover... the amazement that we might actually pull this off.
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This is a beautiful account! Thank you! I had to read this to others. I love seeing these spontaneous poetic impressions from so many posters independently and across-the-board expressing how extraordinary this experience was. And hits the spot as we all try to cling to the magic while real life shoves its way back. I wish I had space to upload a video I took of the scene before/during at Prouty Beach, which apparently was a makeshift forum GTG... the anticipation the 30 seconds before, and then the eruption of shrieks and oh-my-gods the instant we get to 100%... still gives me chills.
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I imagine northern coast of Spain, where you might see the umbra shadow race over the ocean, would be pretty amazing... also close to sunset over the ocean which could be pretty wild. Interestingly totality only lasts 1m50sec max. Looks like path also goes over Ibiza, but not sure I'd have patience for that vibe while seeking natural beauty. All again highlights just how special this NNE occurrence was.
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Ditto... was in that same exact traffic jam as you and Weathafella on 112 "Lost River Road" to get onto 93 North Woodstock NH 10:30pm... you Jerry and I'm sure others were in this: Backed out of our parking spot in Newport 4pm Finally exited Newport 5:30pm Arrived in Boston 2am, (non-stop... empty bottles in car) I don't remember hearing a single honk the entire drive. As Powderfreak and others said, I'd do it all again in a heartbeat. I think compounding things was that Google / Apple Maps really struggled to update anything and gave some ridiculous suggestions even with cell phone service (I had downloaded offline maps before trip). Some media attention to this: https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2024/04/10/eclipse-traffic-new-hampshire/
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With maybe a hint of solar retinopathy (some bilateral eye pain)... transiently felt the same after 2017... apparently I'm not alone, Google trends for "solar retinopathy":
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Another Sugarloaf photo from a co-worker: @AstronomyEnjoyer, enlighten us on the planets we saw yesterday, one visible in this photo (?Venus):
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How funny! We are 2 for 2 for impeccable total solar eclipse locations. I actually somewhat regret not taking 10 seconds for a photo of the eclipse with my wife and I and setting in the background... it's fading like a dream now, so I wish I had a visual reminder. Yeah the exit from Newport was something. The parking lots were full when we arrived so we parked in some private house that opened up their driveway to cars ~ 1 mile away and were so generously guiding people (imagine that in Boston, they'd charge $50 a spot). So we had the walk back, then slow crawl drive to center of town, stopped at the "City Cinema" for bathrooms, and next stop Boston 2am. Extreme, but absolutely worth it.
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Great post, and exactly captures the vibe. People who haven't seen totality think "profound", "stunning", "otherworldy" adjectives are melodramatic... they are not. Aside from a sight so alien to anything we know, and on a scale that reminds us how small we really are, the vibe was magic. Strangers were enthusiastically nice to each other. The camaraderie of witnessing something amazing that makes all our divisions seem so stupid. I fully appreciate why some people are brought to tears, and why people chase these experiences that you may only get with optimal conditions once or twice in your life. It's like pressing a "reset" button to momentarily wipe all our man-made bs.
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Some comparisons to 2017 observed in Gallatin Tennessee: - seemed larger to me, not sure if the moon was closer to us this time - much more noticeable temp drop in 10 minutes before, I'm estimating 62F to 50F with noticeable breeze - red solar prominence at 7 o'clock, so cool that everyone saw that - "shadow snakes" on snow piles, only happened minutes before and after totality For better or worse, did not even try to photo the eclipse... wanted no distractions from taking it all in during totality so only a set-it-and-forget-it video. That's me pointing up in the center: Photo from my brother who flew to Cleveland:
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How cool, it seems a bunch of us here were at Newport, Prouty Beach! 5.5 hrs driving up (7:30a-1p), non-stop 8.5 hrs driving back non-stop (and not including ~1 hours just to get out of Newport)... I-91 was 5-10mph for 100+ miles, we did some backroads to I-93 and they were intermittently bumper to bumper as well... pretty remarkable at 12:30am Monday night to see stopped traffic on I-93 And I'd do it all again in a heartbeat. Such a stunning celestial feat + pristine weather + in our own backyard... not again in our lifetime.
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Same exact plan Agree I think cloud cover will be a thin veil at most + we'll be far enough east that Newport vs. Colebrook should work. Defaulting to Newport given the extra seconds of totality. I'm so nervous just about getting there leaving Boston at 8am. Still can't believe New England may have one of the the best patches of viewing on the planet... I'll PM you my cell #
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Totally sympathize... at one point, I naively planned to bring my 1 and 4 yo... then wisened up not to squander a once-in-a-lifetime 3 minutes to a "daddy my glasses keep falling off" tantrum lol Thankfully the grandparents will babysit