jaxjagman

Someone else from Brentwood,what part?

I swear this has typical strong NINA sig all over it,we get the early cold and we will bake around X-Mas onwards.Nice cold spell tho in the long range showing up. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z NOV29 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 29-NOV 44.9 35.9 01005 72 SUN 06Z 29-NOV 45.0 37.4 39.4 34.2 05003 98 SUN 12Z 29-NOV 39.7 36.6 37.1 34.8 11003 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 18Z 29-NOV 56.2 37.0 56.5 43.3 18004 0.00 0.00 100 MON 00Z 30-NOV 57.6 50.5 50.4 50.0 35004 0.17 0.00 100 MON 06Z 30-NOV 50.4 41.9 41.8 41.5 34012 0.51 0.00 100 MON 12Z 30-NOV 41.8 36.5 38.9 38.4 31011 0.49 0.03 100 MON 18Z 30-NOV 39.0 35.5 35.7 24.6 30011 0.02 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 01-DEC 35.7 32.9 32.8 22.8 31009 0.02 0.02 94 TUE 06Z 01-DEC 32.9 28.7 28.6 19.1 30006 0.02 0.02 25 TUE 12Z 01-DEC 28.5 25.5 25.5 19.7 27006 0.00 0.00 2 TUE 18Z 01-DEC 36.3 24.9 36.4 19.0 28007 0.00 0.00 11 WED 00Z 02-DEC 38.7 31.6 31.4 20.5 27005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 02-DEC 31.5 26.0 25.9 19.8 27004 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 02-DEC 27.4 24.7 25.0 21.3 24002 0.00 0.00 30 WED 18Z 02-DEC 44.7 24.4 45.0 25.7 30001 0.00 0.00 35 THU 00Z 03-DEC 46.8 36.6 36.1 29.8 10004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 03-DEC 36.1 27.8 27.9 23.7 15002 0.00 0.00 100 THU 12Z 03-DEC 30.5 27.4 28.4 24.4 11004 0.00 0.00 69 THU 18Z 03-DEC 50.7 28.4 51.0 29.3 17003 0.00 0.00 33 FRI 00Z 04-DEC 53.0 44.4 44.7 35.0 18004 0.01 0.00 95 FRI 06Z 04-DEC 46.5 43.0 43.3 40.9 20005 0.04 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 04-DEC 43.4 42.6 42.7 42.5 17002 0.20 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 04-DEC 44.8 42.7 44.8 43.9 24001 0.24 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 05-DEC 45.8 43.8 43.7 42.4 36003 0.02 0.00 98 SAT 06Z 05-DEC 43.7 39.9 39.8 36.8 35007 0.00 0.00 94 SAT 12Z 05-DEC 39.8 35.9 35.9 32.7 35007 0.00 0.00 86 SAT 18Z 05-DEC 45.8 34.7 46.0 30.4 33008 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 06-DEC 47.9 39.6 39.4 30.7 33006 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 06-DEC 39.4 32.7 32.4 29.8 30004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 06-DEC 32.4 30.2 31.1 28.9 22004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 06-DEC 50.9 31.1 51.1 34.1 28007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 07-DEC 52.8 43.4 43.3 34.1 27007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 07-DEC 43.3 40.3 40.2 33.3 32008 0.00 0.00 40 MON 12Z 07-DEC 40.2 34.5 34.5 23.0 32008 0.00 0.00 46 MON 18Z 07-DEC 37.9 33.5 37.9 19.3 33010 0.00 0.00 16 TUE 00Z 08-DEC 38.4 31.4 31.2 16.0 34006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 08-DEC 31.2 25.4 25.3 17.7 33003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 08-DEC 26.1 22.9 22.9 17.5 24003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 08-DEC 37.4 22.8 37.6 15.2 19002 0.00 0.00 81 WED 00Z 09-DEC 38.3 32.8 33.4 20.2 16005 0.00 0.00 5

Sounds like you are waiting on the apocalypse,sorry couldn't resist,just playing..lol

Man look at the SSTS off the JAPAN coast,Sea of JAPAN and even Sea of OKHOTSK.Then you factor in the warmer than normal SST'S in he Gulf.Seems prime for a fun severe season,if you like severe.Of course this is only a model in Nov and we are talking April,but still.Troughs galore in the east with this.

NMME is showing a strong NINA now into winter.APEC is the same its last update a couple weeks ago.We seem to be already at that point right now with the last ENSO update coming in at +1.7 for the week,per CPC. It does not look like the IOD(DMI) is going to disappoint the ENSO.Every year the DMI reaches around +1.4 there has been always been a moderate to strong LaNina into the the following winter,since 1980

LOL... no doubt about that

Coldest the subsurface has been yet along with a standing wave west of the IDL and KW ongoing along the IDL,NINA looks pretty healthy .Its still cold in the east,not sure why some of these seasonal models want to kill it off so fast sure some of these models

Today is fall back,we lose a hour and models are a hour early,wish they would not change this crap and leave time alone

CFS shows a KW around the IDL today which gets into the GOM and Caribbean into the long range.GFS shows a strong tropical system and even the EURO shows a area of LP today in the GOM.Could get some tropical mischief upcoming.Where it goes and if anything does develop would seem to be a trough going through East Asia the next couple days

CFS has a fairly strong wind burst into the second week of Nov if it is to be believed right now,something to watch,Subsurface is really cool right now into 3.4.If you are a tropical person you might even watch the GOM and Atlantic as the MJO passes and possibly a KW into Nov.,but that is to far out right now

Guess its going to be a long college football season huh

IMME,shows a moderate NINA into March,with a more neutral east,this would be a +TNI for you severe folks into spring

LaNina footprints all over it,we get early snow and think its gonna be a great winter,then we get stabbed in the back..lol

I wonder if there is any relationship with the historic Cali fire season this year ?Jeff or any met,anyone??

Think one possible scenario would be if this would be a more resurgent NINA into spring,but that is to early to tell.Last one was back into 2010-2011.Something i will be watching the next few months anyways

Just wanted to say thanks for posting here Fred.Hope you continue to post time to time.Nice to have a met posting in our area

NMME looks Moderate now into winter.Even the GFDL is finally catching on

He was one hell of a guitar player

Thanks,missed this

APEC shows a moderate NINA if not it's close, now until the first of next year,kind of resembles to an extent the BOM where it peaks at around -1.6 in Dec then trickles upwards

The one i think you were taking about kind of fizzled out didnt it?Think it's what you were talking about but could be wrong.Looks like a strong one will get underway in the upcoming days tho.

This would be cool https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/towards-free-and-open-weather-data-for-all

Thanks,its going ok,ive been sick the last couple weeks,no COVID just feeling blah,scratchy throat,coughing, sneezing,what ever bug it is.hope i never get it again

NMME is showing a Modoki moderate Nina in Jan

CFS shows a robust Rossby Wave moving into the Easten Pac,i can see why the gyre's dont show much of anything right now other than into the Eastern Pac.