jaxjagman

Believe the strongest to date was in 2012?Don't quote me, i could be wrong.Believe it was on Halloween afterwards LeConte got 3 feet of snow

In 2016 in a NINA the models kept showing a big storm in this area but we ended up with one of our best snow storms on record,no clue if it will happen again.Its so weird how the Valley works,someone is always going to be left out one way or another

They havent had a good snow strorm in years

Looks like a potential active period coming up maybe.The MJO tho being shown into the the COD into the IO there looks like some decent convection more into the MARITIME,also into Jan you can clearly see a KW possibly into ,BETWEEN JAN 4-6,tho this certainly could change.

Control today almost looks like it wants to just blow up the SPV

My storms never work out,i'm still looking at the storm towards the 2nd week of Jan.The pattern looks up and down.We should have a trough new years which looks imminent right now then a warm up then a system towards the end of week one into two.Right now it's just meh looking

Nice trough on the Euro with the ULL in the MO/Valley.Potentially with some shortwaves riding along it.Tho to early to early to trust right now

GFS is hinting at the possible SSWE talked about above into the 2nd week of Jan,It hasnt been showing this recently and the GEFS still says no

It didnt start until night here at my house.These were convective bands and we seem to got lucky.I went to the store earlier today and you couldnt even tell it snowed any a few blocks away.This was the same as the last storm,except we didnt get much of anything,but if you went south towards Franklin they got much more than us

Just to add on above you can see a ridge build up into Korea and Japan,then a trough coming through.Teleconnections has a -ve AO/NAO,but the PNA is uncertain right now

I am getting interested in the storm into the end of the first week of Jan,if its real There has been some wild swings in the SOI lately around the 20th. 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 25 Dec 2020 1012.01 1007.35 4.88 15.20 9.50 24 Dec 2020 1010.81 1006.15 4.88 15.22 9.62 23 Dec 2020 1010.84 1004.25 14.89 15.16 9.75 22 Dec 2020 1012.31 1004.30 22.26 14.40 9.75 21 Dec 2020 1012.84 1005.05 21.12 13.41 9.58 20 Dec 2020 1011.45 1005.80 10.02 12.80 9.49 19 Dec 2020 1012.11 1002.50 30.57 13.03 9.54 18 Dec 2020 1012.34 1002.05 34.10 12.68 9.35 17 Dec 2020 1013.64 1003.35 34.10 12.22 9.08 16 Dec 2020 1013.54 1004.30 28.65 11.67 8.85 15 Dec 2020 1013.95 1006.40 19.88 11.09 8.73 Also look at the GWO today,which is out of the COD,but this could change drastically upcoming.But the GAAM drops during this time Not sure if this is severe or cold,.I believe tho this system is going to be much stronger than shown right now.JMO

Congrats to you guys in the east,we at least got a dusting and its cold,feels like Christmas for a change,Merry Christmas to all !!

meant to put this in ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z DEC25 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 25-DEC -8.8 -15.4 125 0 27005 FRI 15Z 25-DEC -8.3 -15.9 125 0 27009 FRI 18Z 25-DEC -6.2 -14.9 126 0 27010 FRI 21Z 25-DEC -6.1 -14.4 126 0 27010 0.01 SAT 00Z 26-DEC -8.1 -15.7 125 0 28007 0.02 SAT 03Z 26-DEC -10.3 -17.1 124 0 28006 0.00 SAT 06Z 26-DEC -11.7 -13.4 124 0 26005 0.00 SAT 09Z 26-DEC -13.0 -9.8 124 0 23004 0.00 SAT 12Z 26-DEC -10.7 -6.4 125 17 23004 0.00 SAT 15Z 26-DEC -6.4 -4.1 127 0 24004 0.00 SAT 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -4.3 129 78 24005 0.00 SAT 21Z 26-DEC 0.6 -3.0 130 6870 24004 0.00 SUN 00Z 27-DEC -3.4 -0.5 130 6582 23004 0.00 SUN 03Z 27-DEC -3.6 0.4 130 6321 18002 0.00 SUN 06Z 27-DEC -6.2 2.0 131 6209 15002 0.00 SUN 09Z 27-DEC -5.5 4.0 131 6719 17002 0.00 SUN 12Z 27-DEC -5.9 5.3 131 6812 12002 0.00 SUN 15Z 27-DEC 1.1 5.9 132 6883 14001 0.00 SUN 18Z 27-DEC 9.9 6.6 134 7237 21003 0.00 SUN 21Z 27-DEC 8.4 7.0 135 7575 27001 0.00 MON 00Z 28-DEC 1.1 6.4 134 7416 17005 0.00 MON 03Z 28-DEC 0.2 5.4 133 6902 16005 0.00 MON 06Z 28-DEC -0.3 4.2 133 5804 23002 0.00 MON 09Z 28-DEC -1.0 3.7 133 5411 34002 0.00 MON 12Z 28-DEC 1.7 2.0 132 4934 19003 0.01 MON 15Z 28-DEC 3.0 1.5 132 4398 23004 0.01 MON 18Z 28-DEC 5.5 0.2 132 4787 24007 0.02 MON 21Z 28-DEC 5.5 -1.0 132 4523 24004 0.00 TUE 00Z 29-DEC 2.7 -1.7 132 2572 28005 0.01 TUE 03Z 29-DEC -0.3 -1.5 130 1506 31005 0.00 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -2.7 -1.5 129 434 26001 0.00 TUE 09Z 29-DEC -3.4 -1.7 129 319 03003 0.00 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -3.3 -1.7 128 307 03004 0.00 TUE 15Z 29-DEC -1.9 -0.7 129 5288 05003 0.00 TUE 18Z 29-DEC 2.8 0.3 130 5869 04002 0.00 TUE 21Z 29-DEC 3.7 1.7 131 6028 05001 0.00 WED 00Z 30-DEC -0.8 3.0 131 6632 05005 0.00 WED 03Z 30-DEC -1.7 4.7 132 7493 10004 0.00 WED 06Z 30-DEC -2.0 5.4 132 7426 09004 0.00 WED 09Z 30-DEC -1.8 6.2 131 8577 11005 0.00 WED 12Z 30-DEC -1.7 6.0 131 9387 12006 0.00 WED 15Z 30-DEC 2.3 5.0 131 9766 14006 0.00 WED 18Z 30-DEC 6.8 4.4 132 9476 14009 0.00 WED 21Z 30-DEC 6.7 6.7 133 9652 13008 0.00 THU 00Z 31-DEC 4.0 7.0 133 9655 12005 0.00 THU 03Z 31-DEC 4.0 6.5 133 10431 13007 0.00 THU 06Z 31-DEC 7.0 6.9 134 10769 15008 0.01 THU 09Z 31-DEC 8.0 6.6 134 10382 15011 0.01 THU 12Z 31-DEC 8.6 7.9 135 8792 14011 0.01 THU 18Z 31-DEC 12.7 9.8 137 8515 16013 0.11 FRI 00Z 01-JAN 3.1 0.0 131 5517 27006 1.24 FRI 06Z 01-JAN -0.8 -7.4 129 29 28008 0.41 FRI 12Z 01-JAN -5.4 -10.5 127 0 24004 0.00 FRI 18Z 01-JAN -1.4 -10.5 128 0 28008 0.00 SAT 00Z 02-JAN -3.5 -7.4 128 0 26005 0.00 SAT 06Z 02-JAN -6.7 -4.6 128 68 18003 0.00 SAT 12Z 02-JAN -7.2 1.3 129 5540 05002 0.00 SAT 18Z 02-JAN 3.1 2.8 132 5080 36002 0.00 SUN 00Z 03-JAN -0.3 3.0 132 4900 10002 0.00 SUN 06Z 03-JAN -2.5 -0.9 130 2114 15001 0.00 SUN 12Z 03-JAN -2.4 -3.0 130 650 13002 0.00 SUN 18Z 03-JAN 5.8 -1.9 131 1752 32001 0.00 MON 00Z 04-JAN 1.5 -0.5 132 2845 10001 0.00 MON 06Z 04-JAN -2.6 1.1 132 6059 11004 0.00 MON 12Z 04-JAN -2.6 0.6 131 5177 12004 0.00

Could be another nice system for you guys in the east,if its right,.hard to tell when the thermals crash but looks at least 4"

KW passed through recently has pulled some of the cool subsurface up to the surface in the east.

Trough went through east Asia yesterday.AO looks like it's gonna tank the next few days ,PNA is meh, +ve, NAO -ve, seems very possible we end up with another dynamical system once again upcoming towards the NEW year.Could be another trough towards the end of week one of Jan.,then the pattern could go zonal after that,but long range could always change.

Euro is going hog wild with a strong NINO into summer

Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook for January 2021 ~ June 2021 Issued: 21 Dec 2020 The APCC ENSO outlook suggests “La Nina”. The prevailing ENSO phase is expected to be negative. Negative SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific are predicted during January-June 2021. Along with these spatial distributions, most of the dynamical coupled models predict negative Nino3.4 index which is expected to gradually increase from -1.3℃ to -0.4℃ through the whole forecast period. In summary, based on the running 3-month mean Nino3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests La Nina conditions (~87% chance) with weak intensity are dominant during January-March 2021. The conditions are expected to gradually decrease and a 48% chance of neutral conditions is expected during April-June 2021 ENSO Alert Definition(Download) ENSO Alert status for January 2021 ~ June 2021(left) and history of monthly ENSO Alert(right). Time series of predicted monthly mean Nino3.4 index from individual models and the MME for January 2021 ~ June 2021(left). 3-month mean Nino3.4 index from individual models and the MME for January 2021 ~ March 2021(right). Probabilistic MME forecasts for the status and intensity based on 3-month mean Nino3.4 index for four overlapping 3-month mean periods(right) and first 3-month (January ~ March)(right).

Nothing more than a dusting for us at best,rain before hand and surface temps will crush those totals away for us.better than nothing

Probably wait and see,it does look like the heights are going to rise in East Asia the next few days followed by a cool down.The AO seems all over the place today towards the New Year today

Ouch,GFS in the long range went from cold to severe with the helicities over 600 around New Years night

I am kinda skeptic to what some of the seasonals show,only based on this chart.Some of the seasonals could be killing off NINA to fast.This chart shows in a way or another not counting 2019 there has always to an extent been some sort of resurgent NINA,based on the ONI.Each of the following two winters the ONI has never gone into a NINO but in fact stayed into more of a NINA pattern.Guess we will see down the road. JAMSTEC has a NINO into summer it seems.The subsurface lately has warmed in the east.Could be a possible KW in the east as well the next few days which could help upwell those cold waters