jaxjagman

Brentwood,Williamson County

I was beat and getting ready for bed,i seen it in east Ms earlier,should have said something like you said at that time I've always thought the TN Valley should be renamed and more parts of MS/AL/GA should be added in since no one covers that area,you'd get more posters here just as well.To be honest here,we are not even considered the TN Valley here

Yeah we got a good dose of rain also Flood Advisory Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 TNC037-187-260645- /O.EXT.KOHX.FA.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T0645Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Davidson TN-Williamson TN- 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 The National Weather Service in Nashville has extended the * Flood Advisory for... Southern Davidson County in middle Tennessee... Northern Williamson County in middle Tennessee... * Until 1245 AM CST. * At 1114 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Franklin, Brentwood, La Vergne, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Pegram, Bellevue, Antioch, Fairview, Hermitage, Rural Hill, Berry Hill, Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Leipers Fork and Percy Priest Lake.

Didn't get a tornado but by far the best fireworks i have seen in the past couple years here.Went on my back patio to watch and a bolt hit about a quarter mile away,scared the piss out out me..lol

Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Areas affected...Northern/Central Mississippi...Western/Middle Tennessee...Northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252249Z - 260015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South into Middle TN this evening. Some risk for tornadoes may necessitate a watch in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across the central Plains this evening. The more appreciable height falls will spread across the Mid-MS into the OH Valley region. Along the southern fringe of this stronger large-scale forcing, robust convection has recently developed across portions of western TN where surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s with surface temperatures in the lower 70s. This activity should spread east-northeast along a corridor that is destabilizing just south of a well-defined warm front. Ample shear/buoyancy exist for supercells (possibly tornadic supercell ongoing over Fayette County TN) and there is increasing concern/confidence that other organized longer-lived storms may develop. Farther south along the Pacific front, showers are gradually deepening from northwest MS into northeast LA. Some lightning is noted with the stronger updrafts but activity has struggled to organize. It's not entirely clear how many organized supercells can/will develop along this zone, but shear/buoyancy do favor some tornado threat. Tornado watch may be warranted for this activity in the next couple of hours. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/25/2021

system to watch should be the one around the 5th

Crappie Pac,teles shows a +ve NAO,-ve PNA even with a diving-AO,these are not signs of any cold pattern for us least past into week 1 of Feb and probably beyond if the MJO sticks into the Pac

APEC SHOWS A MORE +TNI but not well into early spring ,more late spring into early summer,but you can still see how volatile 1+2 can be at times.

Certainly wont have a drought soon if its right

Looks like we are going to see a potential big warm up into the first of Feb as the heights are being shown to spike up in East Asia followed by trough finally in East Asia.Have to wait and see what the teles look like the next few days.Right now it seems, there could be a decent squall line to come though

Subsurface now looks coldest into 3.4,the standing wave west of the IDL looks to hold at least for now but seeems like their could be some changes upcoming,i wouldnt be surprised to see region 4 get around -1.5 upcoming

Belongs in the banter but brrrrrrrrrr

Getting close to the positive range,we should be there next month. 2002 -1.780 -1.343 -1.287 -1.326 -1.663 -2.335 -2.871 -3.001 -2.878 -2.546 -2.413 -2.311 2003 -2.523 -2.644 -2.910 -2.995 -3.040 -2.895 -2.723 -2.412 -2.082 -1.738 -1.596 -1.522 2004 -1.600 -1.571 -1.913 -2.272 -2.637 -2.999 -3.376 -3.253 -2.993 -2.731 -2.505 -2.393 2005 -2.598 -2.605 -2.408 -2.383 -2.284 -1.897 -1.885 -2.124 -1.999 -1.668 -1.264 -0.475 2006 0.151 0.067 -0.099 -0.601 -1.170 -1.501 -1.289 -1.087 -0.991 -1.131 -1.184 -1.204 2007 -1.594 -1.834 -2.022 -2.341 -2.655 -2.697 -2.565 -2.305 -1.865 -1.291 -0.302 0.850 2008 1.836 2.404 2.671 2.493 2.015 1.613 1.429 1.173 0.955 0.839 0.787 0.779 2009 0.793 0.753 0.514 0.107 -0.284 -0.476 -0.848 -1.309 -1.687 -2.025 -2.418 -2.571 2010 -2.649 -2.398 -2.127 -1.750 -1.548 -0.957 -0.564 -0.218 0.113 0.681 1.167 1.530 2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.844 2012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.515 2013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.077 2014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.117 2015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.198 0.100 0.112 -0.139 -0.404 -0.676 -1.188 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -3.001 -2.857 -2.549 2020 -2.208 -2.029 -1.811 -1.756 -1.891 -1.855 -1.720 -1.586 -1.090 -0.441 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 TNI Nina 1.2-Nino4 standardized

Seems possible the MJO signal could go back into East Africa upcoming.The EURO does not seem to have any support from its ensembles. Edit:Maybe it does,i still haven't gotten use to these to these new colors on these maps on FRONTIER

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few brief thunderstorms are possible over the central Ohio Valley to Cumberland Plateau this afternoon. ...Central OH Valley to Cumberland Plateau... A pocket of rather cold 500-mb temperatures near -34 C and zone of ascent evident by a mid-level cloud deck near Memphis should reach eastern TN/KY border area by late afternoon. Full insolation ahead of this feature will promote the development of very steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Still, surface temperatures are only expected to warm into the 40s with dew points mixing through the 20s resulting in scant MLCAPE at best. Isolated to scattered low-topped convection appears likely for a few hours this afternoon from this leading mid-level cold pocket to the primary mid-level cyclone drifting southeast across the Mid-MS Valley. Much of this activity will probably remain as showers, but sufficient signal does exist to warrant an area of thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122

Severe dixie alley getting primed into spring

All the long range models shows the heights rising in east Asia.Some hints at a even +nao and -pna,but it is to early to tell and the MJO looks to me will get into the MARITIME but the signal isnt as strong as it has been.The ensembles tho have a sIgnificant amount of spread with them,JMHO

Trough is going trough East China,Yelllow Sea and even possibly into South Korea the next couple days,we should have a system if everything teleconnects around the 19th.EPS even hints at this in the long range

Looking like the AO could tank around week 3,GFS wants to drop the bomb in the long range and finally shows a decent PNA,would be the coldest we've seen in decades if it were to be believed GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN08 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) FRI 12Z 08-JAN 33.8 29.1 01008 FRI 18Z 08-JAN 35.3 33.4 35.1 31.6 34008 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 09-JAN 36.4 34.1 34.3 29.3 34007 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 09-JAN 34.3 30.8 30.8 26.4 33005 0.00 95 SAT 12Z 09-JAN 30.7 28.3 28.4 25.2 34005 0.00 97 SAT 18Z 09-JAN 33.9 28.2 33.9 23.7 36006 0.00 90 SUN 00Z 10-JAN 35.2 31.2 31.4 24.4 01005 0.00 71 SUN 06Z 10-JAN 31.6 28.0 28.1 23.5 01003 0.00 44 SUN 12Z 10-JAN 27.9 26.6 26.6 22.9 01003 0.00 9 SUN 18Z 10-JAN 39.1 26.5 39.1 23.9 02004 0.00 13 MON 00Z 11-JAN 40.4 32.9 32.9 23.5 35003 0.00 89 MON 06Z 11-JAN 32.9 29.9 30.2 24.5 01003 0.00 52 MON 12Z 11-JAN 30.4 29.0 29.2 24.7 02003 0.00 88 MON 18Z 11-JAN 38.8 29.6 37.5 31.3 10002 SN 0.02 100 TUE 00Z 12-JAN 37.4 34.7 35.1 34.5 33002 SN 0.13 100 TUE 06Z 12-JAN 35.7 34.8 35.1 33.8 32005 0.03 100 TUE 12Z 12-JAN 34.9 29.4 29.4 27.8 32004 0.00 52 TUE 18Z 12-JAN 42.3 28.7 42.2 28.2 29002 0.00 8 WED 00Z 13-JAN 43.7 35.3 35.3 28.1 24004 0.00 0 WED 06Z 13-JAN 35.2 31.2 31.2 26.5 22004 0.00 0 WED 12Z 13-JAN 31.2 29.6 29.6 26.0 20005 0.00 0 WED 18Z 13-JAN 45.3 29.5 45.3 32.6 22007 0.00 0 THU 00Z 14-JAN 47.3 38.5 38.5 33.4 20005 0.00 12 THU 06Z 14-JAN 38.6 35.4 35.5 33.7 20006 0.00 33 THU 12Z 14-JAN 35.5 33.5 33.5 32.7 19006 0.00 16 THU 18Z 14-JAN 50.1 33.5 50.1 38.9 20010 0.00 18 FRI 00Z 15-JAN 53.3 45.1 45.1 39.0 22007 0.00 0 FRI 06Z 15-JAN 45.1 40.4 41.2 35.1 31010 0.02 63 FRI 12Z 15-JAN 41.1 34.0 34.0 28.5 25007 0.00 57 FRI 18Z 15-JAN 39.8 33.8 39.7 24.0 28012 SN 0.00 24 SAT 00Z 16-JAN 40.1 34.3 34.3 25.0 29007 0.01 99 SAT 06Z 16-JAN 34.2 28.3 28.3 21.1 30005 0.00 64 SAT 12Z 16-JAN 28.3 26.4 26.4 16.6 28007 0.00 41 SAT 18Z 16-JAN 34.9 26.1 34.9 15.2 26005 0.00 67 SUN 00Z 17-JAN 38.8 34.1 34.9 21.3 19006 0.00 66 SUN 06Z 17-JAN 35.9 34.1 35.7 22.5 20010 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 17-JAN 36.2 35.2 35.7 24.9 20010 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 17-JAN 44.4 35.5 44.4 33.3 23012 0.00 100 MON 00Z 18-JAN 45.4 36.0 35.9 28.0 29008 0.00 78 MON 06Z 18-JAN 36.2 30.1 30.1 22.6 30007 0.00 90 MON 12Z 18-JAN 29.9 27.1 27.3 22.2 24005 0.00 25 MON 18Z 18-JAN 43.0 27.1 43.0 24.9 27008 0.00 2 TUE 00Z 19-JAN 45.2 36.6 36.5 27.5 24005 0.00 22 TUE 06Z 19-JAN 36.5 32.1 32.1 26.6 23002 0.00 20 TUE 12Z 19-JAN 32.0 28.5 28.6 25.2 05004 0.00 74 TUE 18Z 19-JAN 43.8 28.1 43.8 28.6 07002 0.00 70 WED 00Z 20-JAN 45.2 38.4 38.4 27.6 03008 0.00 97 WED 06Z 20-JAN 38.4 30.1 30.2 29.1 06007 SN 0.13 100 WED 12Z 20-JAN 30.3 28.5 28.5 27.7 03009 SN 0.21 100 WED 18Z 20-JAN 31.6 26.8 31.6 30.4 00008 0.09 91 THU 00Z 21-JAN 31.9 24.0 24.0 21.4 33003 0.00 75 THU 06Z 21-JAN 23.7 20.6 20.9 17.3 23003 0.00 0 THU 12Z 21-JAN 22.2 20.1 21.8 18.6 21006 0.00 0 THU 18Z 21-JAN 31.9 21.8 31.5 29.1 28009 SN 0.00 54 FRI 00Z 22-JAN 31.6 23.8 23.8 19.4 31008 0.02 98 FRI 06Z 22-JAN 23.6 14.2 14.2 8.5 31008 0.00 68 FRI 12Z 22-JAN 14.0 7.7 7.8 1.8 31007 0.00 22 FRI 18Z 22-JAN 13.1 7.1 13.1 3.7 31009 0.00 61 SAT 00Z 23-JAN 14.0 10.6 10.6 4.0 31006 SN 0.01 100 SAT 06Z 23-JAN 10.6 5.9 6.0 -1.0 31005 0.00 69 SAT 12Z 23-JAN 5.8 3.1 3.1 -4.2 30005 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 23-JAN 12.3 2.7 12.3 2.5 30007 0.00 4 SUN 00Z 24-JAN 15.6 10.4 11.1 5.4 28003 0.00 23 SUN 06Z 24-JAN 11.2 9.4 9.5 4.6 24002 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 24-JAN 9.6 8.7 9.0 3.8 14002 0.00 9

Yeah i know,tell me about it

Looks like BNA and i should head your way

Good grief,where are you again?

Just went out side and more rain than snow

Only a few flakes here,we do have a decent band fixing to hit