jaxjagman

thats pretty wild

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

For the sake of your (and everyone else’s) property insurance rates, we better hope we get a few tranquil years in a row….  Already seeing 20-35% increases this year, with more likely on the way in the years to come because of the last 3+ years.

In the past few years parts of Nashville to the north of it has been like a tornado magnet,we havent had one here since 2020.Best area of severe though has always been along the TN/MS/AL border

But yes,home insurance has certainly spiked up.

Cold soccer season is not fun.I remember those days when my kids played

This updates in our afternoon each day.But the ensembles are pretty clustered D5 going back into the WP,then by D10 about to be or getting into the WH so we might have to wait until the last week of Feb to get colder it seems like to me

Hudson anyone

Could be the kiss of death for early severe which was what i was thinking could happen

Sports has gotten out of control in all areas because of money and the fans are the ones that are paying for it 

Baseball look at how the Dodgers found a way to exploit the Ohtani contract,Hes getting paid a annual  salary of 2M$ plus deferred payments of 68M$ between 2033 TO 2043 so they can just try and win a championship.

Look at the NFL,they are now trying to make this into a international and PPV game.Look at all the price hikes some teams are doing starting next season is just insane.Plus the Super Bowl,for a 20 person suite you pay between 1.4M$-2.5M$, for up to 20  people that is insane,price of a beer$20,if you wanna a hot dog its only $12.75..lmao

Now to college sports what are the rules?The NCAA has been corrupt now for decades.It seems the BIG-10 and SEC are getting pissed off and maybe had enough and formed a advisory group together this week,but its hard to read between the lines what is going on.But NIL ,shoot some college players soon will be able to retire before even leaving college if not already

The sports world has become Insanity for fans,it's suppose to be entertainment not a business not for you morage your house to watch a game,its out of control !!

Couple members show a split

The Mean looks much better today instead of aiming towards the Maritime long range,its more headed into the IO.Its going back into the WP(PHASE6) D5,then its pretty clustered going into the WH by D10,some odd ball are showing the GFS.As of day 20,break out the darts

That's really a considerable spread as we head past the Mid month of Feb,sometimes tho as we all know the GFS can pull a rabbit out of its hat in the long range,not often but it does happen

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Ramblerbeat me to it.  Just too good not to have in the main thread.

 

 

Not sure about the GFS,it seems to be hinting at bringing  back a +EAMT and the MJO stays into the WP a bit longer.But there is some feedback problems it seems but its been showing this the last couple runs but dont have much of any support.Just about every model i look at shows the MJO going into the WH mid month

Definite some colder signs,upcoming.Not sure about the NAO,GEFS looks slightly +ve

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

-21 on the SOI today. Finally managed to clear that pesky convection from just over Darwin.

 

But notice there is still some convective activity in N Australia and over the Maritime Continent. Convection over 4/5/6/7/8 = 

Yeah and the WWB by the Mean takes it back into the WP for a brief time,starting to have my doubts it gets cold around the mid month,not real cold anyways

8 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Okay. I thought they came out every day now. My apologies 

Mondays and Thursday,no need to apologize

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Anybody have the euro weeklies from today? Didn't see it posted.

Maybe because its still Sunday

This is actually pretty nice the GEFS and EPS are on the same page,you can look at Carvers map above and the pattern should be something similar to his maps around mid Feb

Quite a few more members today showing the MJO into the WH as we are into Feb.Mean doesnt seem to have a whole lot of support

It still amazes me how the pattern looks so similar to 2021.I had to rub my eyes,check it over and over and over to make sure i had the right dates,even the MJO into the IO almost did the same thing into Jan around the same exact time frame

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEPS now looks like the EPS ext from yesterday....The GEPS gets there about 24 hours quicker.  Either way, this is what we mean when we begin to see Weeklies and global ensembles in sync.  Pretty good agreement between two different models.

 

 

Certainly as of today someone could get a winter storm towards the mid month of Feb in our parts if the teles work in our favor

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEPS now looks like the EPS ext from yesterday....The GEPS gets there about 24 hours quicker.  Either way, this is what we mean when we begin to see Weeklies and global ensembles in sync.  Pretty good agreement between two different models.

 

 

This would be similar to what the GFS is showing with a warm up in East Asia which should possibly be into the 2nd week of Feb, for us then the heights fall

Then go ahead into mid March you can see what actually transpired in 2021,not saying this will happen again,just pointing  stuff from 2021 vs 2024

Here is the velocity comparing 2021 vs 2024,1st map is 2021

Here is the MJO back into 2021 compared to this year,the stopping point is Feb 18th.We had a major winter storm Feb14-15 in Middle Tn.See and similarity?

58 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Aa far as believing, not that I do but, no different than believing 70 degrees that far out or posting something regarding a mild rainstorm. Are you criticising any of that ? As far as DT, I'm not a fan of him personally ( attitude problem) but, he is still overall a good Meteorologist. 

Meh,lets let it go,i shouldnt have said anything myself .

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

He's obviously buying the Euro Solution. Feb. 5-6 is timeframe he listed. 

I reckon,good luck to him 9-10 days out