jaxjagman

3 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

Here's a funny gaffe. 10 news was posting about the Tornado watch that was issued for Southeastern KY, but their graphic says tornado warning. 

 

Big tornado

Nice thunderstorm,power got knocked off for a few min,wish it was at night,some intense lightning

3 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

Is it just me, or does it seem like this system is going to arrive in East TN faster than the 6 PM time frame that the local Mets are saying?

RAP and HRR shows more that will develop later on so we'll see

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 75
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   950 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Kentucky
     Western and middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until
     300 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely

   SUMMARY...A loose cluster of storms in western Tennessee is expected
   to evolve into a couple of supercells while spreading
   east-northeastward toward southern Kentucky and middle Tennessee
   through midday and early afternoon.  The environment ahead of the
   storms will be favorable for tornadoes, a couple of which could be
   strong (roughly EF2), as well as damaging gusts up to 75 mph and
   large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Jackson TN to 45
   miles north of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

Neither has much rotation right now

The thunderstorm cell looks more impressive than the tornado cell in SW TN

HRR last couple runs keeps honing in on the TN/KY line for some possible strong tornadoes mid afternoon

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Any thoughts on the recent update by MRX?

Sound like winds and if cells can remain broken tornadoes possibly

10 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Just wondering if a separate severe weather thread needs to be started? @jaxjagman, thoughts?

Just start another severe thread,this one is 3 years old,bout time to start a new one

Still top analog is Mid April 1998 by the NAM 12z today,Disco from Nahshville

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

The main concern in the extended forecast continues to be on
Tuesday with the expectation of some severe storms. A wave of
energy within a larger positively-tilted, broad trough will eject
out of the SW CONUS on Monday with a surface low developing in
response. The surface low will move from the Ozarks into the
Midwest and deepen as Tuesday progresses. Storms could be ongoing
early Tuesday morning to our north and west. A couple of the CAMS
including the HRRR have some activity leaking into our northwest
around dawn. There could be enough instability in place where a
severe storm cannot be ruled out. The main show continues to
appear to be in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Models
continue to show surface CAPE values between 500 to close to 900
J/kg during the afternoon. Models are suggesting storms will
develop ahead of the front over the western third of the CWA and
move eastward as the afternoon and evening progresses. 0-500mb
bulk shear will be ample to support organized updrafts with values
greater than 60 kts. 0-1 km SRH values could be between 200-250
m2/s2 over the eastern half of the area Tuesday afternoon. Storm
modes may be a mix bag of clusters, supercells, or line segments.
Given all of that damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all
look possible. The severe storm window should end between 00z and
03z Wednesday.

Good luck to the Vols today.

April 16,1998 top analog by the NAM,don't mean we'll see a repeat,could even change from the next few runs ,just saying.

Still think this is very similar to what happened in 1997-98 NINO/NINA.The surface is warming right now thanks to a WWB,during this time the subsurface along the IDL and even west got to around -3C into April,the CCKW into May along with the MJO made a quick dismise of NINO

On 3/8/2024 at 11:21 PM, jaxjagman said:

Towards as we get into April we could get active again.We had a similar pattern back into 1998 with a minor SSW in March along with a ElNino quite similar to this one to an extent based on the ONI.

1997	-0.5	-0.4	-0.1	0.3	0.8	1.2	1.6	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.4	2.4
1998	2.2	1.9	1.4	1.0	0.5	-0.1	-0.8	-1.1	-1.3	-1.4	-1.5	-1.6

 

But anyways the MJO by the CFS is showing the MJO getting into Africa/western IO into the first/2nd week of AprilUntil then we should start to see the AAM rise then revert back into a -AAM into April,

But during this time frame we saw some violent tornadoes into Alabama

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_04081998

We also saw the F5 hit Larwenceburg,Tn around a week later

 

No forecast,nothing to panic about but there is some  similarities from 1998 that i'm seeing right now to be a active period possibly well into spring

 

On 3/27/2024 at 7:31 AM, PowellVolz said:

Return flow off the GOM has been closed for business. I don’t know all the reasons for that, I just haven’t went looking for why but east of the Mississippi River has absolutely dodged some bullets. The April 1st, 2nd system doesn’t look like return flow will be an issue, especially on Tuesday. If we get a phase over the mid west this could be a high end event. Gonna be pushing 80 in Knoxville with DP’s in the mid 60’s but it’s hard to tell the depth and quality of GOM return flow.


.

More or less a couple systems the warm sector has had a decent capping inversion for us.

Tuesday like you mentioned is timing.If the Euro is right we'd have some broken cells into Tn by the cams,more severe.

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Sounds like water snake. Although, could be black. Their is a small breed that old timers used to call a Thunderhead. It was either black or gray with a white ring around the Neck. 

Gray Ratsnakes are pretty common in Tn

18 hours ago, ChicagoGuy said:

Hi everyone, apologies if I am doing this wrong, you all seem like you know a lot about weather and I really would like some information/knowledge from folks that understand this stuff really well!

 

My partner and I are planning a camping trip to Mammoth Cave Nat'l Park next week (it's spring break in Chicago), and I've been paying close attention to the NWS out of Louisville. Unfortunately it looks like rain is in the forecast for next week, which is not a great addition to a camping trip. I know that more than five days out forecasts can be inaccurate, but I have been paying attention to the forecast discussion on their site as well. I don't understand all of the technical things they are talking about, but I've figured out that there is some sort of weather system that is forecast to push through the upper South/lower Midwest next week that will bring rain with it. With that in mind I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help explain for me:

1.) Is this forecast just saying that there is a higher probability of rain, or is it saying that it will rain and it's really just a question of how much?

2.) If it is going to rain next week, will it be a lot, or will it just be raining off an on, or for parts of the day(s)?

3.) Is this a weather system that will impact a large area? I am thinking if we're certain it won't be good weather in Mammoth Cave, KY we might pick a different national recreation area or state park (such as Mark Twain National Forest, or Hoosier National Forest) instead.

 

Thank you all so much for your time, talent and knowledge, and if this post doesn't belong here, please let me know and I'll gladly delete it.

Mammoth Cave is pretty cool,have fun!! Welcome to the board.Like PW just said beyond a certain time frame the models can change.

Right now into Late Monday and Tuesday looks like a cold front by the Euro and GFS models,might be your biggest issue.But i wouldnt trust much myself beyond that point right now

4 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Bam Wx put out an informative long term forecast yesterday. He suspects the rapid ENSO evolution could result in a stormy April. Things look pretty tame and seasonal for most of our viewing areas until then.

I dont know.Some of the short range models are coming in quicker tomorrow,wouldn't surprise me  if a slight risk was introduced further east next update close to Nashville

It just would do this in mid March

I'm still surprised more people didnt die in the Nashviile (downtown) from the F3 .The Kissimmee,Fl tornado (F3)was the worse in late Feb but the Birmingham F5 lifted 2 miles from downtown,that would have been catastrophic if it hit downtown.The chart is from fatalities in 1998

Towards as we get into April we could get active again.We had a similar pattern back into 1998 with a minor SSW in March along with a ElNino quite similar to this one to an extent based on the ONI.

But anyways the MJO by the CFS is showing the MJO getting into Africa/western IO into the first/2nd week of AprilUntil then we should start to see the AAM rise then revert back into a -AAM into April,

But during this time frame we saw some violent tornadoes into Alabama

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_04081998

We also saw the F5 hit Larwenceburg,Tn around a week later

No forecast,nothing to panic about but there is some  similarities from 1998 that i'm seeing right now to be a active period possibly well into spring

We know where the MJO is headed

Nino is done now.EKW just put a dent and in the east ,upwelling the colder waters FROM the thermocline to the surface.Euro and CFS the next few days both show a ERW,coming into play also,kinda like a 1-2 KO punch,then the easteries should come into play.If the thermocline was much colder along the IDL,into the WP,,this would be quite similar to what happened in the1997-1998 NINO/NINA