jaxjagman
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Posts posted by jaxjagman
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11 hours ago, PowellVolz said:
Looks like Wednesday went poof. That’s never a bad thing.
.Yeah,pretty strong cap did us in
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4 hours ago, PowellVolz said:
First cut of the year. Still a little blotchy at the bottom from last year’s drought.
.Looks good
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10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:
I love a March surprises but it’s gonna be 70+ for 3 days this week, so we don’t need any surprises now.
.Upper 70's Tuesday,its getting close by a couple degrees to being record highs
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This could be severe maybe before but maybe not,it is the long range of the Euro so it can change between now and then.But,height rises into Mongolia/China would seem to be a +PNA and not negative several days after ,no clue about the NAO,but i'm still not sure it will get that cold even if a ULL sits above you,i just find it difficult to figure out where the cold is coming from myself,dunno but this would be what it MIGHT look like around the 14th of March give or take a couple days
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The next pic would get really interesting in winter time J/F this is NOTHING but a cold look even with a -PNA for most of the LOWER 48 with the exception of the SW, you should see possibly height rises in the SW,but there is no cold,so i really doubt that would happen into March
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This is my take what the Euro shows of the pattern upcoming.The next couple days you will see a trough off of Japan this will form a LP that recurves off of Japan,but at the same time you see a height rises that forms into the Sea of Japan and a trough coming into play into Mongolia,then into parts of China,This would be a severe look into the first week of March because troughs into Mongolia/China into that part should mean a -PNA
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Not sure how much cold there will be.Into early March this will be the fourth SSW major/minor warning this winter,the PV has been a punching bag all winter like Weather mentioned a few days ago.Probably the last chance of winter for us here is going to be maybe into the 2nd week of March like the EPS shows but even what it shows is the 2m's are 2-3C above normal.I think winter is done for us myself here in Mid Tn other than possibly the higher elevations
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17 hours ago, *Flash* said:
A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage.
Went to SWAD a few years ago when he was there and he talked about the 2011 outbreak,he got really emotional about it and did a great presentation
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Honestly i believe the JMA is more right with the MJO
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I havent looked the last couple days but the final warming is showing around the 3rd seemingly,tried to get to the EPS but its down
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Just noticed the GFS just joined the GEPS,the next reversal is around the 6th of March,wouldnt be winter cold but still colder maybe
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Maybe When we had the SSW earlier in Jan it effected the atmospheric Rossby wave train to some degree. around this time frame there was also a real strong Equatorial Rossby Wave,so the balance got thrown off with the pattern,so this could possibly be why our pattern went to junk seemingly
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Composites in March with the MJO into the phase 3 and not into the Maritime.there is some lag time but not the degree we see here in our parts.Then you factor in with our lag here in NA with the ENSO should be something similar.I'm starting to think what was said a few days ago by some might be right
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I dunno,just seems like the MJO could be getting destructive interference from the EKW
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GEFS might be more right with the MJO.It could be what some of the other models are showing the signal into the Maritime is actually because of a Equatorial Kelvin Wave.Dont know if it will be right,it dont seem to have much support
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11 hours ago, PowellVolz said:
I’m starting to think Wednesday for East of Nashville but it looks like energy doesn’t overlap as well as Tuesday does west of the valley.
However it’s looking like the next several weeks this thread might get active.
.Porobably be a bit before we figure it out.The KING and Queen seem to be fighting
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26 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:
I guess it can.Last time it happened here was 2007,but we moved here about three years after,we didnt get those temps in Jacksonville,we was starting to hit the beach...lol
Take that back,we moved to Lawrenceburg a couple years after the F5 hit Lawerenceburg a couple people took me on a tour where the tornado path went through there,think we moved to Nashville in 2010,not really positive on the exact dates but i dont remember it getting that cold
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I guess it can.Last time it happened here was 2007,but we moved here about three years after,we didnt get those temps in Jacksonville,we was starting to hit the beach...lol
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Seems like me there is going to be a strong Kelvin wave moving off AFRICA the next few days and excite the MJO and strenghten the signal into the Maritime,so much for my IO thinking it would go
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The mean has been aiming basically skipping the cold phases for the longest time and dont seem to be backing down
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12Z shows a stronger cap compared to the 6z building into parts of Tn through the day on Tuesday,less severe look if you dont like severe
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GFS is showing a chance of severe Monday night into the Mid South,West Tenn,but this could also just be a shortwave its showing and might not be there next run seemingly,Tuesday could get interesting,GFS keeps showing alot of invergence into the warm sector,but this could be typical GFS bias at this range.Climo the best severe and tornado chance would be into Al/MS.
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GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 02/20/24 Valid - 02/28/24 - 03/12/24 RMM observations show a westward retreat of the MJO signal over the Western Pacific earlier this month, but the MJO has since resumed its eastward propagation and has moved into phase 8 (Western Hemisphere) in RMM space. Consistent with model guidance since last week, a much weakened MJO is generally favored in the RMM forecasts, with model solutions showing the signal mostly remaining within the unit circle during the next two weeks. However, there is some question as to whether this weakening is reflective of a disorganizing MJO or the removal of the 120-day mean which is strongly skewing the MJO signal to the right in RMM space. Upper-level velocity potential anomaly and OLR forecasts suggest the latter, which depict a more coherent MJO moving forward. Anomalous lower-level westerlies forecast continue to enhance probabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) development for the southwestern Indian Ocean through early March.
It has been an active week for TCs around the globe, with 5 TCs that formed in 4 different basins. In the South Pacific, TC 15P formed east of the Cook Islands on February 15 and quickly dissipated. In the Australia region, TC Lincoln formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria on February 15 and moved inland quickly, bringing heavy rain to northwestern Australia. In the South Indian Ocean, on February 17 TC Djoungou formed east of Madagascar. It moved southwestward and became very strong before weakening and transitioning to an extratropical system. On February 18 TC Eleanor formed, also east of Madagascar. It is currently still active, meandering near Mauritius, and is currently forecast to eventually move towards Madagascar. For the latest information on TC Eleanor please refer to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Finally, a rare South Atlantic TC formed southeast of Rio de Janeiro on February 18. It strengthened and was named Akara on February 19, and is currently tracking south.
Despite a relatively weak RMM signal among forecast models, other indicators of MJO activity suggest a stronger MJO than might otherwise be expected. Upper-level velocity potential anomaly forecasts portray a weak to moderate MJO taking shape during weeks 2-3, with increasing anomalous divergence aloft over Africa and into the Indian Ocean as the forecast period progresses. This results in a moderate probability (>40%) for TC activity in the southwestern Indian Ocean during weeks 2-3. Interestingly, Indian Ocean MJO (phases 2 and 3) events historically lead to decreased chances for TC formation near Australia and the Maritime Continent but guidance from both the GEFS and ECMWF suggest a higher chance for TC genesis during the forecast period across the northern Australian coast than might otherwise be indicated, possibly due to Rossby or Kelvin wave interference. The large-scale environment is expected to remain weakly favorable for TC development over the southeastern Indian Ocean during week-3, and 20% chances for TC genesis are issued for portions of the northern Australian coast.
The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 is based on potential TC activity, the anticipated state of the MJO, and a skill-weighted consensus of GEFS, CFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. Above-normal precipitation continues for the Equatorial Eastern Pacific for both weeks, a response to the El Nino conditions, while suppressed precipitation is favored to the north and south of the El Nino-enhanced precipitation. Continued below-normal precipitation is indicated for portions of northern South America for week-2, and above-normal temperatures are likely for eastern Brazil during both weeks. Above-normal precipitation becomes more likely over the western Indian Ocean as the next MJO cycle begins during the forecast period. During week-2, above-normal temperatures are likely for the eastern U.S., much of Brazil, portions of western Australia, and much of southern Africa, while below-normal temperatures are favored for eastern China.-
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February 2024 mid/ long range
in Tennessee Valley
Posted
Pattern of how the NINO got broke down from a strong Nino in 1997 into a strong NINA later into 1998,in most ways its very similar.
Abstract
[1] The intensity of the 1997 El Niño and the 8°C sudden drop in sea surface temperature (SST) around 0°–130°W during the turn into La Niña in 1998 were a surprise to the scientific community. This succession of warm and cold events was observed from start to finish with a comprehensive set of remotely sensed and in situ observations. In this study we employ space-based observations to demonstrate, for the first time, their maturity in capturing the preconditioning, onset, evolution, and decay of the 1997 El Niño and its transition into the 1998 La Niña. An accumulation of warm water in the west and equatorial wave reflection on the western ocean boundary appeared favorable for the development of El Niño. However, the action of a series of westerly wind bursts from December 1996 to June 1997, notably in March 1997, was instrumental in setting up this huge El Niño. The westerly wind bursts excited equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves and advected the eastern edge of the warm pool eastward, which triggered a distinct warming over the central and eastern parts of the equatorial basin. Once these warmed regions joined, the coupling between the SST and surface winds was fully effective, and El Niño reached its mature phase. By that time much of the warm waters of the western equatorial Pacific was transferred toward the east by surface eastward currents. The demise of El Niño and its turn into La Niña in spring 1998 were due to the arrival in the east of various interrelated phenomena. Upwelling was brought from the west by favorable off-equatorial wind stress curl and equatorial Kelvin waves generated by easterly winds and wave reflection on the western ocean boundary. Additional upwelling was brought from the east by equatorial Rossby waves generated by westerly winds. These various upwelling signals were added to the general uplifting of the thermocline because of the slow discharge of the upper layer of the equatorial basin by diverging surface currents. A series of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, characterized by upwelling and opposite surface currents, led to the breakup of the warm waters, the surfacing of the thermocline, and the drastic drop in SST in May 1998 around 0°–130°W. With the arrival of cold water in the east the easterly winds expanded from the west, and La Niña turned into a growing mode. This view of the 1997–1998 El Niño–La Niña, afforded from space, enables the testing of various El Niño theories.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001jc000850