jaxjagman

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday from the Missouri Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys as well as the northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... Synoptic trough will advance through the Great Lakes and OH Valley Thursday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough now approaching southern AZ will reach the middle MS Valley 12Z Thursday before continuing through the southern portion of the OH Valley during the day. Farther west a high-amplitude upper trough will move through the western states. At the start of the period a weak cold front should extend from the Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley and central Plains. A quasi-stationary/warm front will extend from a weak low in northwest TX through OK and the lower MS Valley, while dryline persists across west TX. Farther north a cold front will extend from the High Plains of MT through the northern Rockies. ...Southern MO through KY and TN... In the wake of Alberto, 70F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector. Meanwhile, an increase in westerly trajectories will contribute to eastward expansion of the elevated mixed layer through the lower MS and western portion of TN Valley above the very moist boundary layer. These processes and expected diabatic warming should result in moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg during the afternoon. Storms may be ongoing in association with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough from OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. Evolution of the early storms is uncertain, but new development and or intensification of additional storms along associated outflow boundaries may occur as the downstream atmosphere destabilizes. An increase in flow through the mid-levels accompanying the shortwave trough will contribute to 30-40 kt effective bulk shear supportive of some organized storm structures, including bowing segments with damaging wind and hail the primary threats from afternoon into the evening.

Euro continues this pathetic severe season in the Valley,we can't even get a tropical system to produce..lol

Alberto got relocated further east today/tonight,so the storm is being shown further east on tonight's models,yeah that's how i feel..lol.The better winds are now being shown to the east of Middle Valley ,east of I-65 anyways,maybe more towards the plateau,but better potential flooding for us as it looks the system could go over Nashville right now,per GFS and NAM

Nice catch.I believe we are talking about the same system but i'm slower than what the models are showing or the models are fast,we shall see.Yesterday the the AO was being shown going negative and today it's being shown slightly positive with still a -PNA,less suppressed system

System going through Korea in the end of the month,PNA is going - while the NAO is up in the air and could go negative(not what we want,this would suppress the storm),if the NAO stays more neutral/positive we could see a decent system towards the end of the 1st week of June,we'll see

The Valley looks fairly active through out the month of June, per the Dashboard.We should see a chance of thunderstorms pop back up Friday as the Upper ridge weakens and shifts east,then we'll see what or if the system in the GOM brings someone next week.

Been hanging out at the french quarters last week for a graduation (don't think i ever want to drink again) Jamstec did a reverse from it's last update.The IODI was closer to a +0.5 now hovering around +2 into Sept-Oct..What would have been more trough in the west with "AN" temps in the Valley this winter,is reversed with with more trough in the east and "BN" temps in the Valley.Stronger more modoki Nino look close if not a moderate one.No real signs of any let go with the wet pattern through fall,no signs of any drought anyways.

The NMME latest update this month starts to develop a Nino Modoki in August.Then a full basinwide weak Nino by Dec

Some signs of a wet June in the Valley.NMME and RRWT is showing it

SOI recently has taken some big swings.Wednesday looks questionable but both the GFS and Euro has a shortwave coming through Middle TN in the afternoon,so if something does pop it could get severe.GFS also shows some better bulk sheer tonight.Soundings just west of Nashville Edit:Euro still looks pathetic on the OZ Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 8 May 2018 1014.56 1011.85 9.06 -2.94 3.12 7 May 2018 1013.35 1013.75 -14.77 -2.93 2.71 6 May 2018 1013.17 1014.85 -24.57 -1.88 2.57 5 May 2018 1013.09 1013.65 -15.99 -0.39 2.62 4 May 2018 1014.37 1012.50 2.62 0.85 2.55

Yeah, the MJO is taking it's time seemingly getting out of Africa into the IO,than what's been modeled. Wednesday,the GFS recently the last couple runs have backed off the sheer in the west, CPC has nothing but a marginal risk .Euro don't still show a whole heck of alot of anything like you mentioned.Should be a better chance starting around mid month and beyond.Certainly with the MJO and the recent SOI crash it would seem that way anyways with a system into the 3rd week of May.If the BSR maps are close to anything right there would be a CF coming towards the Valley then stalling out.We'll see

We had a little hail this afternoon in the Middle Valley, some big cumulus clouds,this was from Fairview.The cells started to weaken by the time they got to us ,we saw some but nothing like this

Agreed.But still need to watch next Wed and maybe Thursday especially during diurnal heating.GFS last run shows some better Super cell composites with better bulk sheer Wednesday in the Western Valley.Difference to me between the Euro and GFS is the GFS shows a shortwave in the western Valley,the Euro don't show this.So who knows which will cave.Also going to Thursday if the GFS is right,shows MUCapes of around 3.7K in portions of the eastern Vallley

Keep a eye on this time frame.The MJO has been showing signs of being LESS progressive as it was being shown getting into the IO into week 2 now more mid month,either way

JMA

The MJO also would be favorable during this time on the maps above.But where it goes after it gets into the IO is in question and how amped it will be when it does get there

Maybe towards the Mid month we'll see a better system.The boundary isn't up towards the lakes but a warm front potentially could be lifting through the Valley

If some of the seasonals are right by the POAMA looking at the IOD,more neutral(negative) will possibly be into summer.Nothing + looking right now to be more or less inductive to a Nino,right now anyways

If the weeklies are anywhere right not only there would be a severe threat but a big flooding threat into wk 1 and week 2 of May.This system around the first of May is looking better also recently,so we'll have to see what happens with this

If the GAAM into the May don't get taken out like Jeff mentioned.The GAAM is showing almost -3.5 sigma,this is the same time frame mentioned above,once again,we'll see

If the BSR map is correct we could be looking at the potential for some good storms into week 2 of May.The Dashboard is all over this time frame.Along with the BSR maps shows a area of LP coming out of Texas into the Valley.The OLR has been showing up on this time frame as well.We'll see

The frontogenesis on the Euro on May 1st looks fairly close to the BSR maps,only problem is the split flow right now.The BSR maps look well right now.Severe threat seems low right now into the first part of May,in the Valley

Chance for a KW week 3-4 as you mentioned also.Upper trough being shown right now won't be much of any severe weather in the Valley upcoming unless that changes