A little L getting placed near strong convection early on isn’t a big deal. There probably is a mesolow associated with convection that technically has a lower mslp. The problem is if the model starts trying to feed the conveyors around it while it drifts OTS. The dynamics are still near the coast though while the real sfc low starts to develop and deepen.
Yeah some of the models are occluding this pretty quickly.
Not sure what will be more correct. But it’s not often we have a 970ish long tracked seclusion going near the BM.
Kinda fascinated to see how it plays out from the outside looking in.
I’d have to dig into the warning archives but B warnings are few and far between here to begin with and I can’t recall GYX issuing one in an event under a foot.
I can’t imagine any NWS office out here issuing a Blizz Warning for under a foot though. 90% of the public doesn’t know the definition of it no matter how many times you tell them.
Everyone has their personal beliefs on this. I use them for identifying meso features close in, but I don’t treat the QPF as gospel. The mesos have crapped on themselves so many times close in I can’t even count. Ask @powderfreak