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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    We are due for the gfs and euro to flip their positions. Let’s get the gfs way SE and then the euro way NW to cause even more confusion.
  2. dendrite
    Would Ray be okay with this as long as he beats you and DIT?
  3. dendrite
    There could be a small area of it in the transition zone (assuming midlevels are this warm near the NH border), but it’s probably nbd.
  4. dendrite
    We can just lock this run in if you want.
  5. dendrite
    Def south and less amped, but still a ways to go for most of SNE. Maybe a Krafty finish?
  6. dendrite
    Canines lifting their legs up on the weed
  7. dendrite
    I think the NAM looks south…later/less phasing in the plains. We’ll see
  8. dendrite
    Certainly could. I expect SN to start here…maybe some light accums. 3k is all snow for Gene.
  9. dendrite
    I got a little sunburn on my face last Saturday!
  10. dendrite
    I think what they’re saying is we really don’t know
  11. dendrite
    1-11” for PWM Good luck with your prep.
  12. dendrite
    0.5”-10” for IZG lol
  13. dendrite
    This is how much the euro AI changed in 36hrs to the current 6z run
  14. dendrite
    NAM is still very amped. Nice model battle. Back to bed.
  15. dendrite
    Idk what we’re even arguing anymore. I had been saying the GFS was likely overdoing the amplification the past couple days. But the gfs and ec were polar outliers and guess what? They’ve been slowly meeting in the middle. But I don’t recall the GFS being the NW extreme a common occurrence.
  16. dendrite
    This. The GFS was regularly a shredded POS well offshore right until 24-48hrs out and we never even worried about it.
  17. dendrite
    The mean has been pretty consistent, but yeah, this is a hell of a way to get there.
  18. dendrite
    The 12z op had 0.20” to HFD and ORH. The AI has barely had precip anywhere in the region until recently. I’ve been okay with the EPS and AI ens. But I’d like to see more consistency from the ec ops before riding anything.
  19. dendrite
  20. dendrite
    Looks like some kind of convective mesolow. That’s like 50kt sustained.
  21. dendrite
    Euro op is on an island. Good luck with that ride.
  22. dendrite
    Still pretty warm llvls for a lot of SNE. Def a tick cooler though.
  23. dendrite
    GFS has a little fronto finger up here on the front end.
  24. dendrite
    I would laugh if the gfs ends up the most SE out of all 12z models
  25. dendrite
    Yeah I don’t think anyone denies the H5 improvements over time. And I think we forget how off and how coarse the solutions were at d5+ over a decade ago. I almost feel like there’s too much resolution in the long range combined with the increasing error and you start ending up with more chaos with the deterministic solutions and we start overanalyzing details like QPF and temps too far out.
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