dendrite
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Everything posted by dendrite
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There’s heavy precipitation, but the reflectivity is bright banding. The model simulates it. View the ptype loop. The really deep blue shading that’s like 40dBZ is where the model tries to indicate wet snow.
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Bright banding/wet snow
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And I’m not trying to pigpile on the hires stuff. I think they have a purpose and are good in some areas. But too often they seem to start getting synoptically off when you start getting past 12hr.
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More like anything past 0hr. I’m not the only one here that feels that way too. I know Will goes on SREFs rants because they pulled the spectral RSMs out for the ARWs.
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I don’t even find the FV3, ARWs, and SREFs useable. RAP I forget exists. HRRR starts falling off a cliff after 12-24hr. But I’m sure the NWS likes it because the high res must help them fill their zones in the short range.
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A lot of those mesos are usually out in left field…especially the convective allowing ones.
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I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD
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Yeah there’s big mid level fronto there from NJ-NYC-CT along that back bent wf. Check out this weenie warm seclusion too
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I like the one almost to Nova Scotia already
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Downhill. Don’t do it
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Does Harv know he prefers Tip?
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Some here only like to track storms. Once the storm hits they’d rather look at the 186hr ensembles instead of watching it snow 3”/hr.
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Never forget. Sorry NYC
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I had over 1” QPF on some of those runs leading up to it. The RGEM hit that band hard the night before too. But I understand your point.
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We just don’t know.
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6.6”/0.54” final
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What’s up with the hyperbole today? We analyze model runs here…even the ones that aren’t the snowiest or the ones that tick SE. No one is saying the large scale features are changing. It’s just IMBY posts. But I do get a kick out of latching onto the roided out mesos yet when they nuke into NNE they get tossed for being over done. Never change weenies.
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Feels like we’re finally working toward a consensus
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AIFS a little SE
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lol you weenies are a trip
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0.15” QPF for me that run.
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AIFS a tick SE too
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GFS south
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Fan of it?
