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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    I think we’re slowly narrowing the goalposts. NAM is flattest, AIGFS most amped
  2. dendrite
    I will say the H5 orientation and amplitude of the shortwave/vortmax of the EC AI looks like the 12z gfs op.
  3. dendrite
    It does, but the ens means do as well.
  4. dendrite
    Yeah…like you’re painting the maps with a small paint brush instead of a fine tipped marker. Like when the MRF would slap .01-0.10” in NW flow over all of New England when you knew it was just sensing the mountains and that we’d be dry while upslope areas dumped.
  5. dendrite
    The resolution is what always puts me off with the AIs. There’s no fine details like the deterministic ops. Everything is more coarse and “fuzzy”. I feel like that would provide more consistency in the mid or long range, but would result in being over generous in the short range. That’s why I always treat them like ens means.
  6. dendrite
    We reach climo min temps in another few days to a week depending on proximity to water. December felt long to me, but I will say that I blinked and it’s now the 2nd half of Jan. Tomorrow’s 12z GFS at 384hr will be the first Phil prog.
  7. dendrite
  8. dendrite
    We just got ice-in declared on Lake Winni Tuesday. Earliest since 2018.
  9. dendrite
    Should be a NW CT/Berks/ORH hills/Monads “jack”
  10. dendrite
    @ineedsnowHow did the srefs look?
  11. dendrite
    Sorry but I have dinosaur bones under the ground here. EXPLAIN THAT
  12. dendrite
    Another edition of Fossil Fuel Fridays
  13. dendrite
    Watch the euro come in zonked now
  14. dendrite
    I just knew that little gph kink in Utah was going to f it up
  15. dendrite
    Idk how you could determine if it’s going to be better until about 36hr in. By then it was pretty clear it was going to be flatter.
  16. dendrite
    Same ol’ G(FS)
  17. dendrite
    The GFS is so much more amplified
  18. dendrite
    Yeah…the s/w was a little more neggy.
  19. dendrite
    That H5 look resembles the euro although it’s still a bit flatter.
  20. dendrite
    Did your head do this?
  21. dendrite
    HRRR is always playing catch up
  22. dendrite
    Yup. There’s some sinkholes down the road here too. They had a cone blocking one the other day and when I drove by it yesterday the cone was shattered so someone got swallowed in it.
  23. dendrite
    Yeah it seemed like the 6z gfs was trying to curl it in last second on approach. I’d like to see this suite try to lean in that direction.
  24. dendrite
    HRRR toned down from 6z. 3k nam is running…I’d put more faith in that.
  25. dendrite
    Well every run and model is flopping around with timing and intensity. The only thing consistent is there’s some good cold shots in the extended. I’d probably lean toward a cold shot that’s on par with the typical coldest of a winter. Up here that would probably be a day that’s like +10/-15. But that’s just spit balling.
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