It’s kind of hit or miss depending on the year. If you’re only looking for 00-01 I’d just pick out a few stations and check for the Feb/Mar events and work from there. I know Salisbury up here had good data in that time range. I thought Massabesic Lake would be good, but when I just looked at March I notice they missed that 6-10” slop event that ended the month.
Here’s the 500mb vortmax that is inducing the inverted trough. You can see the “kinks” in the isobars it’s causing (the actual trough) as the PVA induces pressure falls.
It’s the same type of way we get our inverted troughs. But it’s perfectly situated so that it moves southward over Lake Michigan. The extra instability from the warm lake waters is making this locally heavier than it would’ve been otherwise. And yeah, then the low level flow aligns along the long length of the lake and we get the LES streamer behind it for a short time.
The last month has averaged a hair AN, but we haven’t had anything absurd since the first week of October. Of course everyone know’s my opinion about the new normals, but we don’t need to go there after Friday.
There’s an inverted trough that swings through there N to S. The mesos initially push a convective band (horizontal to the flow) southwestward through the city and then behind that it aligns into a typical LES streamer where it slowly shifts east from the city to IN. But I agree with Scoot. I think the heaviest is more east toward the IN/IL border. But it should be pretty cold on the west side of the LES with NW sfc flow.